RADIO
Seven more games on tap tonight for the NBA DFS slate as we can begin counting down the days until the regular season tips off on October 19th. There are lots of players who are sitting out tonight, which creates an opportunity for players who we'd have no business considering in a regular-season contest. Let's get to it.
This is my general disclaimer. Preseason rotations are never easy to figure out and there's a lot of guessing that goes on for these slates. If you can't stomach the variance, then just sit back and let the rest of us sweat these slates out. I do my best to find some of the best spots, but even I have fairly limited information to work with here so I'll just warn everyone beforehand that things can go a lot differently than we expect quite often.
I highly encourage you to follow me on Twitter and check out the list of beat writers that I follow to keep informed on the latest up-to-date information about each team and their plans for minutes and rotations. In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings on 10/11/21. You can always hit me up in the RotoBaller Premium NBA Chat Room or @RING_DFS on Twitter.
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Preseason NBA Overview
The first thing you need to know is that building lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings this preseason is going to be very different. FanDuel has decided to keep their prices the same (everyone is priced at 6,000) and therefore, you can build a lineup with any nine players you want as long as you roster two PG, SG, SF, PF, and one C. We can leverage that on FanDuel by rostering some lesser-known players since we should expect the well-known players to be more highly-rostered, especially amongst more casual players and fans. All prices listed in the article are DraftKings prices since the FD prices simply don't matter and you can play anyone you want.
DraftKings has priced guys as they would on a normal slate for the most part, but we do get discounts on superstars if we want to cram some into lineups. I like to use a balance of younger players with some veterans that we can project for solid minutes and, honestly, every slate is different to some degree.
Preseason NBA DFS Injuries/Rest
Knowing who is playing on any NBA slate is half the battle. Getting injury info on preseason slates is a tad harder than in the regular season but here's what we know right now.
ALREADY RULED OUT:
Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, John Wall, Terry Rozier, Cade Cunningham, Victor Oladipo, Edmond Sumner, Shake Milton, Patrick Beverley, Kris Dunn, Derrick Walton Jr., Grant Riller, Jason Preston, Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka, Zion Williamson, Kyrie Irving, Pascal Siakam, Tobias Harris, Brandon Ingram, Rudy Gay, Gordon Hayward, Norman Powell, Ben Simmons, Chris Boucher, Jaxson Hayes, Seth Curry, Sean McDermott, Mason Plumlee, Ben McLemore, Killian Tillie, Aron Baynes, Cody Zeller, Matisse Thybulle, Nassir Little
DOUBTFUL/QUESTIONABLE:
Killian Hayes, Gabe Vincent, Jordan McLaughlin, Ivica Zubac, Buddy Hield, Eric Gordon, Marvin Bagley III, Dillon Brooks, Paul Millsap, Kelly Oubre Jr., Caleb Martin, KZ Okpala
SITUATIONS TO AVOID
It's preseason, so while we can't rule out any situation completely, we can slightly shy away from the DET/MEM, SAC/POR, and CHA/MIA affairs due to their slow projected pace and low implied totals.
NBA DFS Games to Target
Houston Rockets vs. Toronto Raptors
We have a lot of fun plays in this game and it should be a good one as it's projecting for a fast pace, a high total, and not a whole lot of defense. Jalen Green ranks 10th in the NBA in minutes played during the preseason at 27.9 minutes per game. He also has a solid 25.4% usage rate and he's averaging 16/5.5/2 with 1.5 steals per game through two contests. He's one of my favorite points per dollar plays on the slate. Kevin Porter Jr.'s price dropped after an inefficient showing in his last game, but he's still averaging the most points on the team (18.5) and holds the highest usage rate (27.7%). He's also averaging a monster 27.8 minutes per game and is very appealing on tonight's slate. You can take shots on Christian Wood, but he's the most expensive of the bunch and he's taking about half the amount of shots as Porter Jr. and Green. Kevin Martin Jr. and Alperen Sengun are the low-priced targets on the Rockets.
The Raptors are also intriguing because they're giving big minutes to most of their starting five. OG Anunoby, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, and Precious Achiuwa are all averaging at least 25 minutes per game, through three games played. Anunoby is main my target as he leads the team in minutes (27.9) and points (20) per game, while also contributing four rebounds, two assists, and 1.7 steals per game. With Siakam out of this game, it's the Anunoby and VanVleet show. VanVleet is expensive, but he's fine to take shots on for the same reasons Anunoby makes sense - he's a focal point of the team and should get the usage and opportunities to provide value tonight. Scottie Barnes and Precious Achiuwa are a little expensive for my liking, but they're right in the mix and can certainly be deployed in DFS lineups. Gary Trent. Jr. actually leads the team in usage rate and he's getting 22.8 minutes per game, so he can be thrown in as a quality salary-saver. Svi Mykhailuk is getting over 21 minutes per game and has been productive as well, so he's another value play on the Raps.
Primary Targets: Jalen Green, OG Anunoby, Kevin Porter Jr., Fred VanVleet, Kevin Martin Jr., Gary Trent Jr., Svi Mykhailuk
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. LA Clippers
This matchup is intriguing as I like the core on the Wolves and the Clippers' value players pop out quite a bit. The Wolves concentrated (for preseason standards) minutes for their rotation players last game - Vanderbilt, McDaniels, Edwards, Towns, Russell, and Beasley all saw between 20 and 24 minutes of playing time. The DFS production was fairly spread out, however, with Vanderbilt being the only player to provide DFS value at his salary. If the rotations remain similar, we're going to have some pieces to play with here. The Clippers will be without Leonard, Ibaka, and potentially Zubac - which are three of their best defenders. They just gave up 122 points to the Mavs as Doncic, Porzingis, Powell, and some guy named Eugene Omoruyi (among others) were great DFS plays. I don't love playing D'Angelo Russell at his high tag, but Towns, Vanderbilt, Edwards, and Beasley all look like strong plays.
The Clippers are limiting their starting five to under 20 minutes per game, so it's really tough to have any confidence in playing Paul George at his high salary. He's averaging 7.5/3/3 in his two games anyway. Where we should be considering Clippers is with their peripheral guys, like Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, and Isaiah Hartenstein. These players are all getting heavy minutes (Hartenstein is the exception) and have been generally productive this preseason. Mann and Kennard, in particular, profile as strong plays tonight. Coffey and Hartenstein are more "wild card" type plays, but they could certainly go off again in this favorable matchup.
Primary Targets: Karl-Anthony Towns, Jarred Vanderbilt, Anthony Edwards, Malik Beasley, Terance Mann, Luke Kennard
DraftKings DFS Top Plays
Let's go rapid fire here, I won't go into too much detail with each player because it's a big slate with a lot of viable options!
Jalen Green - PG/SG ($5,600)
The details on this play are listed in the above section, but here's the quick version: Green is cheap, getting top-10 minutes, and he holds a high usage rate that has resulted in two impressive DFS outings. He now gets to face a Timberwolves squad that gave up the second-most FPPG to opposing PG's last year.
Trey Murphy III - SG/SF ($6,300)
Why wouldn't we keep going back to this guy? He's averaging over 30 minutes per game through three games and leads the team in both points (19.3) and rebounds (7.3) per game. He also leads the team in shot attempts (13.7), shots made (6), three-point attempts (8.7), and three-pointers made (5) per game. He's still pretty cheap and the matchup against the Jazz isn't as daunting as it seems - they've allowed 111 points scored in each of their two games so far.
Clippers Value
Terance Mann, Luke Kennard, Amir Coffey, and Isaiah Hartenstein are all in a great position to crush their DFS tags tonight. The group received between 18 and 26 minutes last game, and they were all productive to varying degrees. I'd rank them Mann, Kennard, Coffey, Hartenstein - but Hartenstein has been shown to be wildly efficient with his minutes and he's a low-rostered pivot who could pay off huge tonight. The big man somehow put up 16/8/5 with two blocks in just 18 minutes last game.
Andre Drummond - C ($5,500)
The Sixers' new backup big man is averaging 22 minutes, 14.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.5 blocks per game through two games played. Embiid will likely start this game, but he's doubtful to see over 20 minutes and that opens up the path for Drummond to succeed once again. People will probably be off Drummond since his big game came in the first preseason game with Embiid sitting, but he can easily provide value at his salary even if he only receives around 20 minutes tonight. The Nets gave up the 10th-most FPPG to opposing centers last year and this game has the highest implied total on the slate.
James Bouknight - SG ($5,400)
Bouknight is averaging a solid 23.2 minutes per game, and he could be in for a slight increase in minutes with guard Terry Rozier out tonight. Hayward will also sit and Oubre Jr. is questionable, so there could be a ton of usage and shot attempts opening up for the rookie. He has been impressive even with Rozier playing as he's averaging 18.5/4/1 with two steals per game. The game will likely have a slow pace and could be a low-scoring affair, but Bouknight is well-positioned to provide DFS value on tonight's slate.
DraftKings DFS Value Plays
My favorite 5k or cheaper plays on DK, sorted by salary:
Terance Mann - SG/SF ($4,900)
Jarred Vanderbilt - PF/C ($4,700)
Svi Mykhailuk - SF/SF ($4,600)
Kyle Anderson - SF/PF ($4,500)
Brandon Boston Jr. - SG ($4,500)
Kevin Martin Jr. - PF/C ($4,400)
Gary Trent Jr. - SF/SF ($4,400)
Malik Beasley - SG ($4,300)
Justise Winslow - PG/SF ($4,200)
Justin Champagnie - SF ($4,100)
