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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/11/21. Mike Schwarzenbach's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, Rotoballers, and welcome to a fun afternoon slate. It's still early in the season and most teams are towards the back of their starting rotation so pitching options are limited and there are bats for days. The trick will be finding which ones fit best into our lineups, while also trying to keep in mind rostership percentages.
Daily fantasy baseball can be tricky and even the most obvious plays can put up a goose egg. That's baseball. On slates like this one - where there are a half-dozen teams with implied run totals over five - I like to try and differentiate from the masses and find those bats that can have a big day, while being under five percent rostered.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/11/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Marcus Stoman - P, NYM vs. MIA ($9,100)
In a world where Jordan Montgomery is the highest-priced pitcher on a slate, you know there aren't a ton of pitching options. I don't hate Montgomery, but he will be popular after a dominant start last time out against the Orioles. Tampa Bay kills lefties and there will be the "Yankee tax" on Montgomery coming off a strong start. For my money, give me Stoman for $800 less. The right-hander was almost as good in start number one allowing just one run in six innings to the Phillies.
Stroman opted out of the 2020 season but answered questions on his skill level emphatically in his first start sitting 93.1 MPH with his sinker. He also revamped his slider in his time away from the game. He threw 23 of them his first start generating a 37.5 percent whiff rate, according to BaseballSavant. That'll play. Toss in a matchup with a scuffling Miami offense that has just six runs in their last four games and Stro is the top pitcher on the slate.
Dylan Cease - P, CWS vs. KC ($7,200)
Spend any amount of time on fantasy baseball Twitter and you'll find a small, yet passionate, group of analysts who LOVE Dylan Cease. It's easy to see why. He sits at 97.5 MPH with his four-seamer. His curveball averages a whopping 10.8 inches of break. The slider? How about a 39.5 percent whiff rate? Yes, the upside is always there with Cease. He's got some prospect pedigree and is only 25-years-old. You just don't give up on that kind of talent.
The issue with Cease is the results seldom match the talent. Last year he pitched to a 4.01 ERA but his peripheral stats were much worse posting a 6.87 expected ERA. His strikeout rate also cratered to a career-worst 17 percent. At $7,200, however, today is a good day to take a shot on Cease's upside. Kansas City isn't an overly daunting matchup and is the good version of Cease shows up today he can finish with a point total up with the high-priced arms.
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Alejandro Kirk - C, TOR vs LAA ($2,700)
Toronto unloaded 15 runs on the Angels last night but Kirk wasn't in on the fun as Danny Jansen got the start after a long rain delay. The timing of last night's game almost guaranteed we'll see Kirk in there today and he's a solid value under $3,000. The Jay's number-five prospect is off to a slow start this year but slashed .299/.427/.519 in 2019 in Single-A ball. Obviously, the Majors is a very different ballgame but it's also not like Kirk was just sitting around watching Star Trek since he mashed in the minors. He's got strong game-to-game upside so let's roll him out versus Alex Cobb and his 40-plus percent fly-ball rate the past two seasons.
Colin Moran - 1B, PIT vs. CHC ($3,600)
I love the Pirates bats today as a sneaky stack and Moran is the primary reason why. The cleanup hitter for the Bucs is off to a strong start this season with a .321 average and a .604 slugging percentage. He'll have the platoon advantage versus Trevor Williams who allowed 2.44 HR/9 last season, worst in the Majors. Fire up Moran for thousands less than the high-priced options at the cold corner.
Adam Frazier - 2B, PIT vs. CHC ($3,800)
The same logic we used with Moran applies to Frazier. The lefty leadoff man should get three cracks at Williams with the platoon advantage and I like Frazier to be on base all day for the middle of the order. The righty Williams doesn't have extreme splits, but lefties do have better numbers than righties across his career. Frazier is getting hot with two hits in back-to-back games and should carry that success into Sunday.
Anthony Rendon - 3B, LAA at TOR ($4,800)
Toronto hung 15 runs on the Angels last night but Sunday should be payback time with Tanner Roark on the Dunedin, Fla. mound. Roark actually gave up homers at a higher rate than Williams last season but didn't have the innings to qualify to "lead" the league in HR/9 allowed. Roark was in the bottom fifth percentile in barrel rate last season and was hit hard in his first start of 2021. The Angels are the top stack of the day and Rendon should be right in the middle of all the action.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. - SS, MIA @ NYM ($3,100)
We recommended Stroman in the pitching section but I can't get away from Chisholm at this price. The electric rookie from the Bahamas already has two steals on the season and launched his first Big League homer yesterday. Into the upper deck. Off of Jacob deGrom.
Chisholm is sporting a cool .549 xSLG early in the season but his impressive numbers thus far aren't even the reason I like him today. Chisholm is the heart of the Marlins right now, it's impossible to not be infected with his energy and enthusiasm for the game after every big play. He's inexpensive and racking up fantasy points with his bat and legs. Every day he seems to do something to excite a Marlins fan base that has been itching for a true star to don their jersey. Chisholm is far from that status, but he's on his way. Enjoy this DFS price while it lasts.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Dylan Carlson - OF, STL vs. MIL ($3,000)
Dylan Carlson has arrived. Long regarded as a top-prospect for St. Louis, the switch-hitting 22-year-old has three homers already this season and nine RBI. He's riding a cool four-game hit streak into an unthreatening matchup with Brett Anderson. Like Chisholm, Carlson's price will rise soon so take advantage now.
Bryan Reynolds - OF, PIT vs. CHC ($3,300)
The last and most crucial piece of the Pirates stack is their switch-hitting number-three hitter. Reyolds is scorching the ball early in the season with a .595 xWOBA on contact. He's a patient hitter who takes his walks and makes tons of contact. I like Reynolds to pick up his first homer of the season today against a pitcher who serves up a lot of them.
Luis Robert - OF CWS vs. KC ($5,700)
Mike Minor is the second-highest priced pitcher on the slate but he's also not someone we should avoid entirely. He's a fly-ball pitcher with a 41.5 percent FB% for his career. Robert hits a lot of fly balls so this is a good spot to attack a pitcher a lot of people will be rostering. Robert is also hitting the ball hard in the early going with a 92.6 MPH average exit velocity. He can score points by hitting homers or causing chaos on the basepaths as he swiped 36 bags his last season in the minors.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels @ "Toronto" Blue Jays (Tanner Roark, RHP)
- San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers (Mike Foltynewicz, RHP)
- Sneaky Stack: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs (RHP Trevor Williams)
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