RADIO
Frank Ammirante explains why Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is a sell-high trade candidate in fantasy football leagues based on regression and scheduling.
Dak Prescott came into the season as a consensus top-five quarterback in fantasy football. Through four games, the Dallas Cowboys QB has soared past those expectations, completing 68% percent of his passes for 1,690 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions. Currently ranked as QB1, Dak is on an absurd pace of 6,000+ passing yards on 800+ pass attempts.
With a franchise running back and a trio of talented receivers at his disposal, Dak has all of the pieces in place for elite production. He is also forced into shootouts because the Cowboys offense plays at a fast pace and their defense has struggled, allowing an NFL-worst 146 points on the season.
Despite this talented supporting cast and appealing team context, the time has come to sell high on Dak. His value will never be higher than it is now. In this article, we'll take a look at the offensive scheme, remaining schedule, and fantasy production to outline why you need to try and trade Dak while his value is at a season-high. We'll also provide a couple of trade offers that can guide you in your attempt to capitalize on Dak's terrific start to the year.
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Offensive Scheme
| Rotoviz: NFL Offensive Pace and Run/Pass Report (Top 10) | |||||
| Team Offensive Stats, Point Dif: -7 to 7, Excluding Last 2 Mins of Half (Weeks 1-4) | |||||
| Team | GMs | Plays | Sec/Snap | Pass% | Run% |
| Cowboys | 4 | 160 | 21.8 | 65% | 35% |
| Cardinals | 4 | 171 | 23.9 | 53% | 47% |
| Titans | 3 | 185 | 24.4 | 49% | 51% |
| Washington | 4 | 112 | 25.4 | 59% | 41% |
| Falcons | 4 | 111 | 25.5 | 59% | 41% |
| Lions | 4 | 168 | 25.8 | 58% | 42% |
| Eagles | 4 | 216 | 26.3 | 60% | 40% |
| Giants | 4 | 143 | 26.3 | 64% | 36% |
| Jets | 4 | 101 | 26.6 | 56% | 44% |
| Bills | 4 | 165 | 26.8 | 61% | 39% |
The Cowboys are playing at a much faster pace than any other team in football, taking 2.1 fewer seconds per snap than the second-fastest team. They are also airing it out 65% of the time, which ranks first in the NFL. While this has led to a ton of yardage and points, it has been taxing on the defense. This defense has regressed, partly due to a depleted secondary, but it's not as bad as it's looked so far.
| Football Outsiders: Defensive DVOA (20-32) | ||
| Rank | Team | DVOA |
| 20 | Chargers | 2.4% |
| 21 | Seahawks | 3.8% |
| 22 | Bills | 5.7% |
| 23 | Patriots | 6.8% |
| 24 | Cowboys | 7.9% |
| 25 | Falcons | 7.9% |
| 26 | Packers | 8.8% |
| 27 | Texans | 9.0% |
| 28 | Panthers | 9.8% |
| 29 | Lions | 10.8% |
| 30 | Raiders | 15.8% |
| 31 | Dolphins | 16.0% |
| 32 | Jaguars | 16.2% |
Football Outsiders Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) analyzes every play to compare a defense with the league's baseline average, adjusted for the strength of each opponent. With the way the Cowboys have allowed points this season, you might expect their defense to rank in the bottom-five in the league, but that's not the case. This indicates that the fast-paced offense has left the defense out to dry, resulting in a 1-3 start to the season for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.
We've seen the Cowboys hide a flawed defense by playing more of a ball-control style to great success in the past (13-3 in 2016, 12-4 in 2014), so perhaps we could see head coach Mike McCarthy opt to slow things down a bit. While Dak is putting up videogame numbers, the team isn't winning football games. Something needs to change here and I expect the Cowboys to try to lean on Zeke more in the coming weeks.
Remaining Schedule
| Week | Opponent | PPG vs. QB |
| 5 | vs. Giants | 19.6 (3rd) |
| 6 | vs. Cardinals | 22.5 (T-14th) |
| 7 | at Washington | 26.0 (T-26th) |
| 8 | at Eagles | 21.4 (T-10th) |
| 9 | vs. Steelers | 22.7 (16th) |
| 10 | BYE | |
| 11 | at Vikings | 22.5 (T-14th) |
| 12 | vs. Washington | 26.0 (T-26th) |
| 13 | at Ravens | 24.8 (T-23rd) |
| 14 | at Bengals | 21.4 (T-10th) |
| 15 | vs. 49ers | 20.9 (T-6th) |
| 16 | vs. Eagles | 21.4 (T-10th) |
| 17 | at Giants | 19.6 (3rd) |
The Cowboys' remaining schedule ranks 24th for quarterbacks, including tough matchups in the fantasy playoffs against the 49ers and Eagles. Their schedule includes eight games where they project as favorites, including two games at home against the Giants and Washington which could end up as blowouts, resulting in more run-heavy game scripts. This is not a favorable schedule and when you account for a likely increase in rush attempts, you have a clear path to regression.
Fantasy Production
| Rank | Player | PPG |
| 1 | Dak Prescott | 31.30 |
| 2 | Russell Wilson | 31.23 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | 30.09 |
| 4 | Kyler Murray | 27.07 |
| 5 | Patrick Mahomes | 27.04 |
| 6 | Aaron Rodgers | 25.77 |
| 7 | Tom Brady | 22.37 |
| 8 | Lamar Jackson | 21.32 |
| 9 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20.07 |
| 10 | Gardner Minshew | 19.61 |
Despite leading the league in passing yards with 1,690 (364 more than 2nd place Josh Allen), Prescott is only slightly ahead in fantasy production due to a lack of passing touchdowns compared to his counterparts (nine TDs, sixth in NFL). This is because the Cowboys love to feed Zeke in the red-zone.
| Red-Zone Usage | ||
| Player | Inside 20 | Inside 10 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 ATT (3rd) | 14 ATT (1st) |
| Dak Prescott | 17 ATT (T-16th) | 7 ATT (T-19th) |
As we can see here, Dak is middle-of-the-pack in red-zone usage, which will affect his touchdown production. Quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, and Josh Allen are three elite fantasy quarterbacks who each have more pass attempts in the red-zone. The Cowboys will likely continue to feed Zeke in the red-zone, so the incoming regression in yardage due to fewer pass-heavy game scripts is unlikely to be supplemented by an increase in passing touchdowns for Dak. We also need to consider that Prescott already has three rushing touchdowns in only four games, which is only three less than his career-high of six. This rushing touchdown rate is unsustainable, influenced by the two pass-heavy game scripts that Dak encountered against the Falcons and Browns. Dak also doesn't run as much as Mahomes, Allen, Jackson, Murray, Watson, or Wilson, so that also caps his upside.
Outlook
Dak Prescott remains a top-seven fantasy quarterback for the rest of the season, but it's time to capitalize while his fantasy value is at its peak. A player to target in a trade could be Lamar Jackson, who's currently ranked as QB8 and could be acquired at a cheaper price. You might also decide to package Prescott with a player like Jerick McKinnon for a significant upgrade at running back, perhaps picking up a player like Josh Jacobs. You could even trade Prescott for an underachieving quarterback like Deshaun Watson plus a player at a position of need, like D.J. Moore or A.J. Brown. Capitalize on this selling opportunity and upgrade your team to guide you on your path to a fantasy championship.
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