Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): Genesis Invitational

Spencer breaks down the DraftKings PGA slate with his Genesis Invitational DFS lineup picks, under-owned value plays, and golfers to avoid for daily fantasy lineups.

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Daniel Berger put together a dazzling Sunday finish at Pebble Beach, firing a final round 65 to capture the title by two shots over Maverick McNealy. While not all wins are created equally, it felt as if the right man walked out of California victorious after seeing the American place inside the top-18 in all key statistical categories. Berger entered the fourth round just one-under par during his first 12 par-fives for the event but quickly eradicated that slow start with an eagle during the second hole. The 27-year-old followed it up with birdies on the sixth and 14th holes and closed the show in style with a 30-foot eagle at 18.

As far as this article was concerned, last week provided us one of our best performances to date. We had 18 of the 20 names listed make the cut, which included every golfer priced at $7,000 or above. Our two misses came in the form of Patrick Rodgers ($6,900) and Chesson Hadley ($6,700), with the latter of the two being mentioned as someone who should be played in extremely small doses because of his volatility. Not every week goes as ideally as the one did at Pebble Beach, but it was a nice cherry on top that our man to beat (Berger) got across the finish line to boot. Let's keep the momentum rolling at Riviera Country Club.

I take great pride in the research and energy I put into my selections from a mathematical standpoint, but my numbers or information aren't always the law. If you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, please feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by fractions of a percent, and I am more than happy to discuss my feelings or stance on anyone that may have caught your eye. Like always, the purpose of this piece is to help you put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups for DraftKings, whether that be from a GPP perspective or a cash-game mentality. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Genesis Invitational

We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you would like to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!

Riviera Country Club

7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa

Measuring in at 7,322 yards, Riviera Country Club plays a lot longer than the yardage would indicate. Most of the distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than tour average, but that length is quickly made up at holes two, 12, 15 and 18. All four locations at the venue are par-fours that average a scoring total of 4.19 to 4.28 shots, making them four of the five most challenging opportunities at the property.

While the par-four 10th only measures 285 yards, it is one of the better risk/reward holes that we have on tour. The bogey rate has become drastically lowered over the last two seasons, but its 26 percent birdie or better total features practically no eagles and just about a 14 percent bogey percentage. Understanding the pin placement on a given day will be vital for players, and it is a hole that should be attacked when the pin is accessible but played as a two-shot setup to the green when the flagstick could present issues.

With length needed off the tee, it makes logical sense that bombers should have an easier time traversing the course, but that doesn't mean shorter hitters aren't in play. Only 55 percent of drives find the short grass, which is one of the lowest totals on tour. Add to that some of the smallest greens in America, tallying just a 57 percent GIR rate (eight percent lower than tour average), and you start to get a picture that shows length is welcomed but not the only necessity. Golfers will need to be able to gain strokes around the green to salvage their score, and three-putting is a prevalent statistic - even if the small greens would have you think otherwise.

Note: For an exclusive in-depth look at this week's course, check out RotoBaller's Premium Course Breakdown written by Josh Bennett.

Let's Look At The Stats

In Vegas, as of Monday, Dustin Johnson leads the way at 6/1 and is followed by Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm at 12/1, Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele at 14/1 and Bryson DeChambeau at 16/1.

Key Stats

• Weighted Par-Four 17.5%
• Proximity 150+ Yards 15%
• Total Driving 15%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 15%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
• Poa Putting L100 10%
• Overall Bogey Avoidance 10%
• Weighted Putting 7.5%

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

There are five players this week priced above $10,000:

Dustin Johnson ($11,300)

There is good course history, and then there is what Dustin Johnson brings to the table at Riviera Country Club. In his past 13 attempts at the venue, Johnson has provided nine top-10 showings, including a victory in 2017 and five additional top-fours. There isn't a ton to discuss here with the big-hitting American that won't be publicized throughout the industry, but it is an encouraging sign that his short-term form is above his two-year sample size. Johnson is currently firing on all cylinders and is the favorite for a reason.

Justin Thomas ($10,700)

We get this interesting price tag with Justin Thomas, where he is probably a little overpriced compared to the alternatives we can pivot to in this section. Thomas has been all over the map at this particular property in the past, posting back-to-back top-10 finishes in 2018 and 2019, but it comes along with a failure to crack the top-35 in his other four attempts. From a pure value standpoint, I consider this number to be a little on the high side of things, but it appears as if the industry is in agreement early on in the week. That sometimes can create an opportunity to leverage his ownership in large-field GPP contests, but we are still too fresh into the proceedings to jump to any conclusions quite yet.

Rory McIlroy ($10,500)

We have gotten so caught up with the idea that Rory McIlroy isn't winning golf tournaments anymore that it has left most golf pundits wondering what is wrong with the Irishman's play. I get it is frustrating for those investing any money into him weekly, but let's pump the brakes a little and re-evaluate the picture. It has been 21 worldwide starts since McIlroy has located the winner's circle, but it is worth noting that he hasn't missed a cut and has provided nine top-10 results in the process. The 31-year-old might not be the favorite to walk out of Riviera victorious this weekend either, but the property is a brilliant fit for his game when you consider the fact that the plethora of longer irons that will need to be hit should help suit a style that has crumbled in key moments from a shorter distance.

Jon Rahm ($10,400)

If ownership is subsiding for players like Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy, it most likely will heighten directly above and below. The question then becomes: Where do we think it expands the most? And does that take anyone out of consideration in large-field contests? Jon Rahm's distribution of being the second favorite in Vegas but fourth-option on DraftKings has created a nice buy-low window into a golfer that is one of the board's safer choices. The Spaniard has dominated historically on California/Poa venues and draws a course that has seen him finish no worse than 17th in two tries.

Bryson DeChambeau ($10,100)

Bryson DeChambeau likes to push boundaries, and it causes a higher degree of variance with him than most golfers. I love targeting things like that in GPP builds or outright markets, but it does have some concern for cash-game lineups. It is not that DeChambeau is missing a ton of cuts when things do go poorly, but we do see him randomly produce finishes outside of the top-25 more frequently than most other top-tier players. I am under the mindset that the American is going to bomb-and-gouge his way to winning at Riviera, but there is always a chance he flies too close to the sun - both metaphorically and physically with his drives.

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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Xander Schauffele ($9,900)

Statistically, Xander Schauffele is playing the best golf of his career. We don't need to look any further than his 15 consecutive top-25 finishes, including five top-fives over his last seven tournaments. All of that adds up to the reason why Xander is the projected highest owned golfer on the DraftKings slate and second player in my DFS model, but I see this going one of two ways. Either the fourth-ranked player in the world will mentally regroup from his heartbreaking loss in Arizona to continue his scorching run, or perhaps this goes south with a finish nobody inside of the industry could have predicted when looking at numbers. I am conflicted on what I think is going to happen, but the mass ownership does have me questioning how much exposure I will have in any of the large GPP contests.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,600)

I believe many DFS users might start their lineups with Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay and build down from there. That's not the preferred route I would take when considering ownership, upside and overall win equity, but I can make a strong case for Cantlay being a part of your core. The American has somehow quietly finished inside of the top-five three times over his last five events, which includes a victory that has been partially forgotten about by most during the swing season. Cantlay's floor might be the second safest behind Dustin Johnson, and his upside does make him a top-seven golfer in this field.

Collin Morikawa ($9,500)

Pretty much all of Collin Morikawa's recent putting stats are worse than his long-term sample size, but it is not as if the youngster out of California has been immune to poor showings on the greens throughout his career. Morikawa has lost over two shots putting eight times over the past season, with a less impressive total of four tournaments gaining over two shots. However, the thing is that when the 24-year-old does gain, we aren't just talking about quality showings; we are seeing the ceiling you want out of a player - evident by him earning two wins, a second and a seventh in the four examples mentioned above. I really like Morikawa's volatility in GPP contests and believe we can grab him at a reasonable ownership total.

Other Options I Am Considering: Tony Finau ($9,300), Adam Scott ($9,000), Bubba Watson ($8,900), Viktor Hovland ($8,700), Cameron Smith ($8,400), Will Zalatoris ($8,300)

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

Kevin Na ($7,900)

You always get an inflated sense of volatility out of Kevin Na, but it is his three percent projected ownership sum that has me most encouraged on Monday night. The 37-year-old has provided four top-10s at Riviera over the last 13 years and has made nine of those cuts. Na is the eighth-ranked putter in this field over his last 100 rounds on Poa and also places inside the top-15 in strokes gained around the green over his last 24 rounds.

Carlos Ortiz ($7,800)

It might be time to admit what everyone has been thinking; Carlos Ortiz is an elite golfer. Ortiz ranks inside the top-10 of my DFS model, featuring individual rankings of 12th in stats, 11th in course history and eighth in current form over the last 10 weeks. Unfortunately, I am not the only one that has noticed this trend, as he currently sits as the second-highest projected owned player on the slate. Consider this a clear mispricing of someone that should have been listed as an $8,000-plus golfer.

Lanto Griffin ($7,400)

Lanto Griffin ranks a measly 88th in my model in strokes gained around the green and drops to an even worse 115th over his last 24 rounds. That is a troubling statistic for a course that will require some short game prowess, but there is a big difference between taking that risk with a $7,400 golfer versus someone that requires a bigger portion of the salary at $8,000 or above. We expect flaws out of any player in this range, and there is a chance for him to build from his 37th place finish here last season. If Griffin can hit greens in regulation, he can overperform his price tag running away.

Sam Burns ($7,400)

The assessment listed for Lanto Griffin could be copied into this portion. Sam Burns ranks just 112th in strokes gained around the green but has the firepower on the par-five and key par-four ranges to make up for any concerns. Burns finished 23rd here last season and has posted three straight top-39 finishes over the last three weeks.

Adam Hadwin ($7,300)

One could argue that this is a better cash-game play than anything else, but Adam Hadwin's six-of-six made cut streak at Rivieria should play nicely for those looking to target a golfer in the low-$7,000 section. Hadwin has been able to sneak in five of those finishes inside of the top-35, including a sixth-place here in 2018. The Canadian enters the week with three straight made cuts and is a top-30 player in this field around the green and putting on Poa.

Talor Gooch ($7,200)

There is a strong argument to be made that Talor Gooch, not Carlos Ortiz, is the best value on the DraftKings slate. Gooch has finished inside the top-20 during both of his attempts at this week's venue and has snuck in two top-fives on tour in his last eight starts. We typically see the 92nd-ranked play his best golf when he can hit long irons into greens, and he ranks inside the top half of the field in all statistics I have attached a weight to for the week.

Wyndham Clark ($7,100)

Bogey avoidance has been known to bite Wyndham Clark any time he has gotten himself into contention, but Riviera is a perfect fit for a player with two things going for him that most don't in this field - length and putting. Clark ranks 11th this week in driving distance and follows it up with an impressive 15th-place grade over his last 100 rounds on Poa. Riviera Country Club has an 85.3 similarity score to PGA National - a venue where Clark held the lead entering the final day in 2019. It remains to be seen when the 27-year-old will finally break the lid to his ceiling and first title, but this is the kind of track you would imagine he would find success on if it were to come.

Patrick Rodgers ($6,700)

Since missing the cut here during his first attempt in 2016, Patrick Rodgers has been able to string together four straight top-30 results at the property. Rodgers is entering this week with a questionable run that has seen him miss the weekend the last four times he has teed it up, but his overall Poa acumen, length and success on par-fives should give us a nice buy-low spot to target a player many will see on a downswing. Rodgers missed the cut at Pebble Beach last weekend on the number and looks to be turning his game around for one of his favorite stops of the year.

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