RADIO
We're on the brink of one of the best holiday weekends of the year. What better way to start it by taking down a tournament or going a perfect 10-for-10 in your cash games?
Every team is taking the field under the lights tonight, so it's a 15 game Main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings. We've got a handful of top tier pitchers and fringe aces, so there's a lot to breakdown.
Before I jump into that player selection and analysis, let's take a look at a few Vegas lines that could be of interest when making your pitcher and stack selections especially. As of this writing Friday morning, the teams with the highest implied run totals are the Rays (5.7), Orioles (5.4), Blue Jays (5.4) and the Mets (5,3). It's worth pointing out that the Orioles and Mets figures are up .4 from the initial release and the Blue Jays total was originally 5.8 and has dropped .4. The biggest favorites of the night are Mets (-248), the Dodgers (-200), the Astros (-146) and the Athletics (-163).
Featured Promo: Get any DFS Premium Bundle for for 10% off using code BALLER! Win more with expert advice from proven winners and exclusive DFS tools. Get instant access to RotoBaller's Lineup Optimizers, Research Stations, daily picks and VIP chat rooms across 10 sports! Go Premium, Win More!In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 6/30/2017. The DFS lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options, and of course, value plays.
If you have any question about lineup construction, send me a message on Twitter at @kpLUCH.
DFS Starting Pitchers to Consider
Alex Wood - SP, at SDP (DK - $11,700, FD - $10,400)
A few months ago, I would have laughed seeing Wood with a five figure price tag. At this point, however, it's warranted and most importantly, he's been worth every penny. In his past 10 starts, he's beaten value in eight of them and by a large margin - an average of more than 12 fantasy points per night. Tonight, he gets a dreamy matchup in the pitcher's paradise that is San Diego against a team that has a paltry offense and has a projected lineup that owns a collective 27.8% K rate this season. That screams cash game floor and tournament upside. Wood has been excellent at limiting the big flies this season (0.25 HR/9) and boasts an excellent strikeout rate (10.7 K/9). Additionally, he's been able to induce tons of ground balls, doing so at a 57% clip in his last three starts.
Jacob deGrom - SP, vs PHI (DK - $12,500, FD - $12,100)
DeGrom has pitched so beautifully I don't mind paying up to get him in cash games tonight. Honestly, with the strong but expensive options on the board tonight and a big drop-off to the next tier of 'quality' pitchers, this (likely) isn't a night you can get away with saving cash on your pitcher. Speaking of those beautiful performances, deGrom has gone eight strong innings in each of his last three starts, striking out no less than six in any of them and allowing no more than one earned run. His season WHIP is pretty good (1.2) and his strikeout marks are pretty strong as well (9.9 K/9), not to mention the fact that he has better upside than those with similar K/9 marks because he goes so deep in each start. Tonight, he faces a weak Philadelphia offense that has struck out nearly 28% of the time against right-handed pitching, in front of his home crowd in a very pitcher-friendly park.
Also Consider: Lance McCullers - SP, vs NYY (DK - $8,800, FD - $9,500) - GPP only
DFS Infielders to Consider
Alex Avila (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,100)
Avila makes sense for a lot of reasons tonight, in both cash games and tournaments. In his breakout season, he's handled right-handed pitching etremelely well. His .432 wOBA split is massive and the .291 ISO split is strong and good for third at the position tonight. He hits in a very favorable spot in a potent order and he faces Josh Tomlin, who has been getting knocked around quite a bit and owns a 1.8 HR/9. Avila has a cash game floor and tournament upside this evening.
Logan Morrison (DK - $4,700, FD - $3,600)
Logan has one of the juicier matchups I've seen in this price range. First base is a position crowded with talent, so any time you don't spend up on a first baseman, you have to consider what you might be losing. That said, I don't think anyone has a better matchup than him, so saving money here is an added bonus - not my intent. Morrison has been crushing right-handed pitching this season with consistency. He's posted a .380 wOBA split and adds to that some serious power, showcased in his .321 ISO split (the third highest mark at the position tonight). In addition to that, Chris Tillman has been owned by lefty bats this season (.463 wOBA, .576 slugging percentage allowed).
Rougned Odor (DK - $3,300, FD - $3,000)
Odor is a great blend of value and upside tonight at second base. He's been making great contact lately (38% hard hit rate last 15 days) and he gets a date with a Mike Pelfrey who really doesn't miss many bats at all and has allowed a 46% fly ball rate. For the season, Odor has a pretty strong wOBA split (.321) and a great ISO split (,236).
Manny Machado (DK - $3,800, $3,300)
One of these days, Machado is going to bust out the double dong and I have a feeling that night might finally be upon us. From a fantasy perspective, he's been struggling for the past two weeks, failing to hit his price implied value in seven of his last 10 starts. His Statcast data in that same stretch paints a different story however - one of a powerful third baseman crushing the ball and getting unlucky when said ball goes into play. In the past 15 days, he boasts a 41% hard hit rate and tonight he matches up with a pitcher in Jacob Faria that has performed well, but does allow a fly ball rate over 40%. I like Machado and his .219 ISO split to do some damage tonight.
Jean Segura (DK - $$4,700, FD - $3,600)
Segura bust out of the gate strong this year and has since quieted down, only to rev it back up again this past series, collecting four hits in the final two games of the series. The real reasons I like him today, though are his strong splits (.399 wOBA, .204 ISO - excellent for the position) and the fact he takes on Parker Bridwell. Bridwell has allowed an opponent wOBA of .371 for the year and a very atrractive .220 ISO.
DFS Outfielders to Consider
Steven Souza (DK - $4,3000, FD - $3,500)
Mr. Souza hit a little lull with his fantasy production this past series, but overall he's really found his stride and for the month of June he's been making outstanding contact. In the last 15 days, Statcast data tells us he has a 58% hard hit rate and a 34% line drive rate. I mentioned already in my Morrison write up how hard Tillman has been hit, and I expect Souza to be in on that party seeing as he's got very strong splits (.355 wOBA, .211 ISO) to go with the strong contact he's been making.
Marcell Ozuna (DK - $3,900, FD - $3,600)
Ozuna should be well rested after getting an off day on Thursday, so he'll seemingly be ready to take Matt Garza deep once or twice. Garza has been somewhat effective this season, but he is prone to giving up tons of home runs and/or the big inning once or twice a game. Ozuna enters this game with a very impressive hard hit rate over the past 15 days (44%) and boasts a .331 wOBA and .200 ISO split against right-handed pitching thus far in 2017.
J.D. Martinez (DK - $4,500, FD - $3,800)
I'm going to look past the fact that J.D.'s splits against southpaws are stronger and focus on the fact that his numbers against righties are still pretty elite (.389 wOBA, .257 ISO) and that he matches up very well with Josh Tomlin. Tomlin hangs a ton of pitches and allows plenty of home runs, and I see Martinez getting involved here.
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