The Cut List (Week 9) - Time to Let Go?

November 3, 2020

Chris O'Reilly's list of potential busts and overvalued players who fantasy football managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 9 of the season.

The first few weeks of a fantasy season require us to take a wait-and-see approach with a lot of our players. We didn't draft that rookie running back in the 14th round thinking he would immediately become a viable starting option, so we keep him on our bench for awhile and look for signs of what is to come. Maybe he develops a pass-catching role in high-scoring games. Maybe his team leans on him in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Maybe he plays for a run-heavy team that is usually playing from ahead, and he gets a healthy portion of second-half touches. And maybe he does none of these things, in which case we decide after three or four games that he simply doesn't have any clear path to a fantasy-friendly role.

After eight weeks, however, that waiting and seeing is mostly over with. Players have shown us who they are and their coaches have shown us how they'll be utilized. Instead of keeping tabs on our bench players' roles, we should now have fully pivoted to a roster-construction approach that allows us to endure bye weeks and injuries to our regular starters and bad matchups for our fringe flex players. There is very little room on our rosters at this point for players whose rest-of-season value depends on injuries to guys in front of them, potential coaching changes, real-life trades, and so on. We have to bite the bullet and drop some of these guys to pick up the Giovani Bernards and Jamaal Williamses of the world.

With this in mind, what we mean by "droppable" from here on out is not that the players discussed are doomed beyond a shadow of a doubt to be unplayable for the next nine weeks. It is that there is no conceivable way to predict if or when they will be playable based on the evidence at hand, and that a lot of the guys we'll highlight going forward would need at least one drastic change in their circumstances to become relevant in fantasy lineups. As always, our roster percentage numbers reflect ESPN.com leagues. Here's the Cut List for Week 9.

Droppable Players

Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers

59% rostered

Look, I get it if you want to hold onto a healthy running back in a good offense while the number-one guy on the depth chart endures a lengthy injury absence, but at this point I can't see how you'd ever confidently put Joshua Kelley back into your starting lineup. Kelley racked up 173 scrimmage yards on 37 total touches in Weeks 1-2, a span that also includes his only touchdown of the season. In the five games since, he's racked up just 201 scrimmage yards on 59 total touches.

The strangest aspect of this trend is that he had his best two games while sharing the field with certified fantasy stud Austin Ekeler. Once Ekeler went down, there was fringe-RB1-upside in Kelley's profile, and he's done next to nothing with the opportunity. Kelley has been out-snapped and outplayed by Justin Jackson in two of the Chargers' last three games. Jackson has been better on the ground and more utilized in the passing game, limiting the ways in which Kelley can get involved. To make matters worse, even Troymaine Pope played more snaps and saw more touches than Kelley in Week 8 against the Broncos.

Again, he's healthy, which by itself is almost reason enough to keep any running back this late in the season. But if I've got to make a tough personnel decision on the waiver wire to bring in a player who can actually crack my starting lineup in Week 9, Kelley is among my players to consider dropping.

Cam Newton, New England Patriots

64.2% rostered

I'm guilty of giving the Patriots the benefit of the doubt for longer than I should have. I mean, they certainly earned it after two decades of excellence, but that illustrious past isn't helping our fantasy teams now. Cam Newton has thrown for 174 or fewer yards in every game this year except one. He hasn't thrown a touchdown pass since Week 3 (he has just two all year!), and he's committed six turnovers in his last three outings. If not for his rushing production, which has admittedly been helpful most weeks, we probably would've been having this conversation three weeks ago.

Now Julian Edelman is out for an extended period, N'Keal Harry is dealing with a concussion, and the Patriots look every bit the part of a team that would benefit from packing it in and collecting some future draft picks for whatever players they're able to jettison before Tuesday's trade deadline. Newton has what would normally be considered a favorable matchup with the Jets this week, so there is at least a microscopic shred of incentive to see if he bounces back at all. That said, the only quarterbacks on bye for Week 9 are Carson Wentz, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff. It's hard to imagine you need to resort to Newton to replace one of them.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

17.5% rostered

If you've rostered Tony Pollard in fantasy at any point during the 2019-20 seasons, you've done so with the belief that he was only one step away from a lucrative role if anything should ever happen to Ezekiel Elliott. While that was probably true two months ago, the nuclear meltdown that is the Cowboys' 2020 season has rendered it false since. Elliott is one of the league's more talented backs, and even he has looked--I'll say it--pretty bad in recent weeks. As it turns out, losing your franchise quarterback and virtually your entire offensive line has a negative impact on the players left standing.

This brings us to Pollard, whose season-high in snap percentage was 36% in Week 6--a game in which the Cowboys got humiliated on national television and Elliott fumbled twice. Pollard is also averaging just 6.25 touches per game. With a healthy Elliott in the fold, he's not seeing enough playing time or volume to be considered a flier. If Elliott is ever forced to miss time, Pollard will be playing behind a patchwork offensive line with a currently concussed Andy Dalton representing his best possible option at QB. This is no longer a, "whoever the Cowboys' running back is will be good in fantasy" situation. The remaining best-case scenario here is that you get an emergency spot-start out of Pollard at some point 2020. Even if that comes to pass, you're not going to feel good about it going in.

Hold For Now

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

33.9% rostered

Cam Akers played on 21% of the Rams' snaps in Week 8, which was somehow a significant increase over his playing time in Weeks 6-7. He recorded 10 total touches--including one reception on one target, giving him a whopping two targets on the season--for 54 yards. Akers' uptick in usage coincided with an injury to Darrell Henderson Jr., and it remains to be seen how long Henderson will be shelved. With the Rams heading into their bye, we're unlikely to get much clarity here until next week. Akers is on the very outskirts of the fantasy-value landscape due to Sean McVay's refusal to play him, but if you've held onto him this long you might as well stick it out to see if Henderson's injury opens a door to the opportunity we've all been waiting for.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts

96.8% rostered

You haven't been considering dropping Jonathan Taylor, but let's be honest: this hasn't been what we expected out of the rookie with no Marlon Mack around to cut into his volume. He's seen a consistent enough workload to give him a decent floor, and that's been about the extent of his contribution to our fantasy lineups. In the five games since his breakout Week 2 performance, Taylor has plodded his way to 361 scrimmage yards and two total touchdowns on 75 touches--again, not crippling, but not what exactly what you want.

Week 8 gave us our first glimpse into a potentially dark alternate universe for Taylor, however, as he was outplayed by Jordan Wilkins in the most useless good fantasy outing of the slate (113 total yards and a touchdown while being rostered in less than 1% of leagues). Both Wilkins and Nyheim Hines have routinely siphoned enough touches away from Taylor to prevent the latter from being a true bell-cow, and now Taylor will have to battle back from a Week 8 letdown in which he was the only one of the three running backs not to make an impact in a game in which the Colts offense scored five touchdowns (Wilkins and Hines combined for three).

Wilkins' performance in Week 8 is admittedly an extreme outlier, but news has since come down that Taylor is dealing with an ankle injury. This could unfold into a frustrating situation that takes a week or two to resolve itself. Again, you're not even considering dropping Taylor at this juncture. I'm simply including him here so you can get a head start on any roster moves you might need to make in order to account for these concerning developments.

Other Options To Consider Dropping

• Teddy Bridgewater, Carolina Panthers
• Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
• Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions
• Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
• Scotty Miller, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Greg Ward, Philadelphia Eagles
• Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks

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