Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 23: Buy or Sell?

Contact rate risers and fallers based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Elliott Baas identifies offensive players whose changes in contact rate could make them worth adding or dropping in fantasy baseball leagues.

Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.

Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.

Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.

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Contact Rate Risers

Christian Yelich (OF, MIL): 100% contact rate last seven days (+24%)

Who’s hotter than Christian Yelich right now? Over the last seven days he is hitting .371 with a 1.250 OPS and four homers in 40 PA. The Brewers were in some high scoring games and extra-innings games last week giving Yelich plenty of at-bats. From a contact perspective Yelich has the second highest strikeout rate of his career at 22% and a league average contact rate at 77.8%. He is having a career year in practically every category but hasn’t improved his contact ability. He also has not made an effort to change his groundball-heavy hitting style, which is something many hoped for when Yelich was traded to Milwaukee. He still has a 54% groundball rate, and with a .370 BABIP the first inclination with Yelich might be to call his success unsustainable. It is unsustainable to a degree, especially the power since he is rocking a 33.3% HR/FB ratio. The high groundball rate isn’t necessarily a bad thing for Yelich considering his high quality of contact. He’s crushing the ball harder than ever this year with a 92.5 MPH average exit velocity and 51.8% hard contact rate, and Statcast backs up his production with a .307 xBA and .399 xwOBA.

Franmil Reyes (OF, SD): 83% contact rate last seven days (+18%)

Okay, maybe there is someone as hot as Christian Yelich right now. Over the past seven days Reyes hit .435 with five homers and four strikeouts in 26 PA. This is the third or fourth time Reyes has gone on a week-long home run binge this season. He possess elite power and has 31 home runs this season between Triple-A and the majors. Contact is an issue for Reyes, a problem that has been exacerbated in the majors. He has a 70% contact rate and 31.4% strikeout rate in 194 PA this season, and that strikeout rate is much higher than anything he’s ever posted in the minors. After a few seasons in the majors Reyes may cut his strikeouts to 25%, which is scary with his power potential. He probably won’t raise his batting average much higher than his current .261 mark this year, but he’s only 17% owned in Yahoo leagues and could be a great power source down the stretch.

Tim Beckham (3B/SS, BAL): 95% contact rate last seven days (+23%)

Beckham has been much better in the second half this season, and last week was one of his best all year. Beckham hit .333 with a 1.027 OPS and two strikeouts in 25 PA. While Beckham’s second half batting average is 46 points higher than his first half average, the return of his power has been the key to Beckham’s success. He’s hit eight of his ten homers since the All-Star break and has a .211 ISO over that stretch. He’s also cut down on strikeouts 5% in the second half, which is great for Beckham considering the challenges he’s had with strikeouts and contact over the course of his career. Overall this has been Beckham’s best season in terms of strikeouts and contact rate, though he’s still below league average in both measures. Beckham won’t be a reliable source of batting average going forward. His .278 BA last season will end up a career high in all likelihood, a number fueled by a .365 BABIP. He could potentially hit .250 with an ISO greater than .180 over an season, but in standard mixed leagues that doesn’t cut it at shortstop these days. Beckham is a fine volume play in AL-only or deeper leagues as a middle infielder, but he’s not that exciting otherwise.

Contact Rate Fallers

Cesar Hernandez (2B, PHI): 47% contact rate last seven days (-27%)

Hernandez is one of those players that is remarkably consistent and flies under the radar for it. He’s a player that produces solid numbers but never warrants any deeper analysis. He may have lulled us to sleep with his consistency, because since the All-Star break he’s hitting .208 with a .593 OPS. Last week was particularly rough, as Hernandez hit .091 with a .221 ISO and 10 strikeouts in 23 PA. His .266 BABIP in the second half is 70 points lower than his first half BABIP, and the only significant change in batted balls is his drop in hard contact. Hernandez was already a weak hitter, but his second half hard hit rate is a measly 17.7%. That is the second lowest number since the break, only beating out Billy Hamilton.

Hitters like Hernandez can often have success with low hard contact rate and non-traditional batted ball profiles due to their speed. Hernandez’s Statcast page looks alarming on its surface, especially the .236 xBA, but that isn’t too abnormal for him. The best example of this phenomenon is Dee Gordon, who has a career .240 xBA but is a career .290 hitter. Gordon has over 3500 career PA, so we know that speedsters like him and to a lesser extent Hernandez don’t always align with their expected stats. Still, Hernandez has been bad for almost two months now, and if a better second baseman were out there he is droppable. Ian Kinsler, Jonathan Villar, and Joey Wendle are three players to consider over Hernandez that are owned in fewer leagues than Hernandez.

Khris Davis (OF, OAK): 46% contact rate last seven days (-24%)

Davis secured his third straight 40-homer season last week, but that homer was one of only three hits Davis had over the past seven days. Overall he hit .103 with a .464 OPS and 16 strikeouts in 35 PA. While frustrating, weeks like this are to be expected from big time power hitters lIke Davis. That’s what makes season-long Roto Davis’s best format. He puts up the same stats every season, but it’s a bit of a roller coaster over the course of the year. Davis isn’t a great source of batting average, but we know what to expect from him. Between 2015-2017 he hit exactly .247, and he’s hit between .244 and .247 every season since his rookie year. Even though he’s in a cold streak Davis is still a must-start player.

Jose Martinez (1B/OF, STL): 59% contact rate last seven days (-22%)

Martinez didn’t let a few strikeouts keep him down. He dominated pitchers last week for a .357 BA and .938 OPS with 10 strikeouts in 32 PA.  On the year Martinez is hitting .309, and his batted ball profile is that of a true talent .300 hitter. His 81.2% contact rate and 16.7% strikeout rate are both above league average, and his 25.4% line drive rate is among the top-20 qualified hitters. He pulverizes the ball too for a 91 MPH average exit velocity and 44% hard hit rate. This is everything we want to see from a hitter; it’s the exact type of contact that is conducive to a high batting average. His .347 BABIP may seem high, but with Martinez’s quality of contact it’s not out of the ordinary. This week was merely an aberration in what has otherwise been a consistent season for Martinez.

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