RADIO
If you think about it, everything we do is a bold prediction in this industry. We know not what the future holds, yet we are tasked with ranking players, suggesting waiver wire adds and evaluating trades.
That's what makes it so fun. There is a chance that every single one of these predictions becomes laughably incorrect by season's end. There's also the chance that I will look like Nostra-freakin-damus come December, at which point I will retweet the link to this post multiple times, even if only for one prediction that I hit on (see Giancarlo Stanton reference below).
These predictions may or may not come true, but they were certainly enjoyable to write about. This is where I get to drown out the noise of ADP, group think, "draft value" and other nonsense that I don't believe to be true. Here are just a few things that I really think might happen in the 2017 NFL season.
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Pierre Camus' Bold Predictions
Leonard Fournette will rank fifth in total fantasy points among all RB... from the rookie class of 2017
Let's start by putting out my projected order of fantasy finish for rookie RBs:
1) Dalvin Cook, 2) Christian McCaffrey, 3) Kareem Hunt, 4) Joe Mixon, 5) Leonard Fournette
I've seen Cook's talent enough times in college to know that he will take it to the house for big gains frequently and he has shown the ability to catch the ball far better than people give him credit for. C-Mac will continue to take people by surprise and yes, Cam Newton knows how to throw a ball to a running back. Who was he going to throw to last year? Fozzy Whittaker? Cameron Artis-Payne? Hunt is now the lead back on a productive team with a good defense and Mixon will carve out enough of a role to be flex-worthy. That leaves Fournette.
It's not that I think he's vastly overrated or that he'll be unproductive. I'm afraid of two things: his foot and his quarterback. The recurring toe injury that kept him out of preseason games is by no means serious, but it's something that could linger as it did since college. The bigger problem is that the team may turn the ball over so much, Fournette may not get a chance to see many red zone carries. In dynasty leagues, I have no problem seeing him go as the top running back (although I wouldn't take him over Cook or McCaffrey), but in redraft I think we need to tread carefully here.
The Rams will be sort of good! Plus, Todd Gurley will be a top-five back once again
Poor Jeff Fisher gets dumped on enough, so I'll just give credit to new coach Sean McVay for bringing an innovative style of play to the offense. McVay has already indicated he will use Gurley more as a pass-catcher, which was further reinforced when their projected third-down back Lance Dunbar was placed on the PUP with a knee injury.
There is still no competition for touches, so Gurley will get nearly all the goal-line work and receptions out of the backfield. The offensive line itself has been upgraded, along with the coaching staff. Jared Goff may not turn into Peyton Manning overnight, but he is still projected to be a high-end QB in this league and should improve significantly under this system. I'm glad to have him as a late-round pick as my QB2 in deeper leagues or a QB3 in 10-team leagues. Having Sammy Watkins and a new batch of receivers helps too.
Lastly, a good running game only works if the defense does its job and guru Wade Phillips was brought in to make that happen. I think Gurley could wind up surpassing the numbers from his rookie season and turn into the biggest steal of the first few rounds in fantasy drafts. Recency bias can be a killer.
No New England running back will be worth starting all season
Crazy, right? The way Bill Belichick's mind works, it's almost assured that he'll do what we least expect. He used a power running game with LeGarrette Blount, who plowed his way to 18 TD last year, so someone has to take over those scores, right? Now that he's brought in uber-sleepers Mike Gillislee and Rex Burkhead to form a fearsome committee along with pass-catchers James White and Dion Lewis, I have the feeling they'll simply pass the ball 40 times a game.
And why wouldn't they? This could be Brady's last hurrah, Gronk is healthy (for the moment), Brandin Cooks is in town, and they will simply want to take teams by surprise by playing counter to last year's offensive plan. There are plenty of reasons to be wary of Gillislee anyway, as my colleague Matt laid out recently. White and Lewis have never been more than occasional flex plays in PPR leagues and I'm certainly not betting on Burkhead to become the next Blount. Simply put, don't trust Patriots running backs again.
Carson Wentz and Brian Hoyer will outscore Dak Prescott
While I don't have them currently ahead of Prescott in my QB rankings, this gives you a glimpse into my inner rankings behind the actual rankings. Prescott's value is still unstable due to the Ezekiel Elliott situation, but there remains a great chance that Zeke misses at least a few games at some point. The Cowboys and Prescott had a lot of things break right for them last year, but I'm just not sure they can keep it up with the loss of Doug Free and Elliott for a spell.
Wentz had the biggest upgrade of any QB in terms of receiving help. The fact that they still seem unsatisfied with their options at running back, including the aforementioned Blount, means Wentz may have to pass more than they'd like. Hoyer will have no choice but to sling it with the defense he will have to support on the sidelines. In the last three years as a semi-regular starter, he averaged about 240 passing yards per game, which is 11 more than Prescott's 229 Y/G.
The sheer volume of passing that Wentz and Hoyer will be doing should be enough to make up for Prescott's rushing production, which isn't as prolific as you may think. He ranked eighth among all QBs in rushing yardage and could be asked to run less now that he's established as the franchise quarterback.
DeVante Parker will finish as a top-1o fantasy receiver in standard leagues
As usual, I save my homer pick for last. Let's hope this comes true, just like my Giancarlo Stanton prediction for baseball. There are a few simple reasons why Parker could have a huge upswing in production this year. First, even though the third-year WR breakout theory has been cast aside in recent years, there is something to be said for taking a receiver who has a couple of years under his belt, yet still in his prime age and physical condition.
Speaking of conditioning, Parker's physical fitness is the next reason to be optimistic. He only missed one game in each of his first two seasons, but he was limited throughout training camp both times and not playing 100% the majority of the season in 2016. Parker changed his diet, exercise routine, and dedication to the game this offseason, which already seems to be paying dividends in practice. Parker was a first-round pick for a reason - his talent has never been the question.
The last reason, of course, has to do with Jay Cutler. He immediately sang Parker's praises upon arriving in Miami and targeted him the most in the team's exhibition games. Parker is already an ideal red zone threat, so double-digit touchdowns could come easily. While he may not have a big enough market share to claim top-10 status in PPR leagues, I think he'll rack up 1,086 yards and score 12 TD. That puts him in the conversation as a top-1o fantasy finisher. Let's hope I didn't jinx him by pressing my luck. Fins Up!
