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Hey there Rotoballers! Today we are going to continue our new series on overhyped players with Mike Gillislee, running back for the New England Patriots. This series will take a look at several overhyped sleepers across the fantasy football landscape, so be on the lookout for other articles highlighting players who have earned way more in terms of attention as opposed to actual production.
Mike Gillislee signed with the Patriots as a restricted free agent after the Buffalo Bills chose not to match the 2-year, $6.4 million contract the Pats offered him. This completed a busy season for New England's backfield as they also signed former Cincinnati Bengal Rex Burkhead to a free agent deal, adding both to a backfield which already features James White and Dion Lewis. Upon Gillislee's signing with the Pats, many fantasy onlookers immediately lauded him as the team's new goal line back, a role that LeGarrette Blount rode to a league-leading 18 rushing touchdowns in 2016.
Having this year's Blount would be an amazing addition to any fantasy roster, but there are some warning signs that fantasy drafters should heed before spending a valuable pick on the fourth-year back. According to ADP data on FantasyFootballCalculator.com, Gillislee is coming off of draft boards in Round 5 of standard leagues and Round 7 in PPR formats. Let me explain why this is way too rich for my blood on draft day.
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The Red Flags Abound on Gillislee Island
The first concern for Gillislee is the crowded backfield in New England. The Patriots have four quality running backs in the fold, including Super Bowl hero James White, 2015 fantasy stud Dion Lewis, and newly signed Rex Burkhead, who may be the most well-rounded back of the quartet. The Patriots are notorious for deploying an opponent-specific game plan from week-to-week, making it extremely difficult for fantasy owners to predict which Pats' running back will have a big game. This lack of clarity, and a robust depth chart at the position, should give drafters pause if Gillislee is still on the board in the fifth round. The fifth round is still early enough in fantasy drafts that you should be looking for the players you consider to be sure things. Gillislee is far from a sure thing as he has only seen 154 carries in his career. His best season, which came in 2016, saw him score touchdowns at an unsustainable rate (eight scores in 101 carries) while enjoying the benefit of playing with Tyrod Taylor, a mobile quarterback who helps keep defenses from loading up to stop the run.
Another concern for Gillislee's fantasy stock is the fact that he is not the size of a traditional goal line power back. Gillislee is 5'11" and weighs in at 218 pounds. While that isn't small, he isn't exactly big for an NFL running back, either. Former goal line back LeGarrette Blount tips the scales at 250 pounds. While many were quick to award Gillislee the goal line and short yardage back role, those assumptions are a bit premature. As mentioned above, Gillislee only has 154 career carries, a sample size that is simply not large enough to assume he can operate as a team's goal line running back. We also just don't know whether the Patriots plan on using Gillislee as the team's preferred goal line runner and most likely won't find out until the regular season opens.
One final concern with Gillislee is that he missed most of training camp with a hamstring strain. The main concern is that he also missing some offseason organized team activities with the same injury, meaning this is an injury which has been dogging Gillislee for several months. He recently returned to practice, but him sitting out for several weeks certainly didn't help him get acclimated to a complex Patriots offense. Head coach Bill Belichick was quoted as saying, "I think he still has quite a ways to go. We gained some ground last week...We'll continue to keep pushing through it." Of course, this is the NFL, a violent sport where we see players get injured all the time. That part of the game is unavoidable. What is avoidable, however, is using a premium, early-round draft pick on a player who is already injured in the preseason. It depends on your drafting strategy and level of risk you are comfortable with, but the fifth round is just too early to be taking risks on players who are not healthy.
In the face of all these arguments against him, Gillislee is not a must-avoid. He's in a great situation and could wind up having a good season. The problem is, between ongoing hamstring issues, a lot of competition for touches, and a head coach who is notorious for being difficult to read when it comes to backfield workload, the draft capital that needs to be spent to have Gillislee on your roster is simply too high. If you are in a draft where he slips and you can grab him a few rounds after his ADP, that's the time to strike. Instead, Burkhead in the 10th or Dion Lewis in the 14th may be the route to go if you want to get a piece of the New England offense at a discount.
