Early-Round Landmines to Avoid? Big-Name Fantasy Football Bust Candidates

September 2, 2025

Kevin's looks at big-name fantasy football busts candidates -- overvalued early-round landmines to avoid for 2025 drafts including Tyreek Hill, Christian McCaffrey, more.

You want to lock in production with your early-round picks in fantasy football drafts. That’s a given. Those picks are the backbone of your squad and where you want a large portion of your team’s fantasy scoring to come from each week. Not hitting on those initial selections puts you and your fantasy team squarely behind the eight ball.

Fantasy managers in 2024 who drafted players like Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and Breece Hall onto their rosters were disappointed by the scoring outputs of those players. We don’t want you to make that mistake in 2025.

Let’s outline a handful of players that I think are landmines in the early rounds, with some solid reasoning behind each player.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins

It feels like Tyreek Hill has been one of the best fantasy wide receivers as long as we can remember, with massive upside that’s unparalleled among the elite fantasy wide receivers. In 2025, Hill enters his 10^th season with some serious doubts about his fantasy viability for the first time in his career. Outside of his 2019 campaign, where he missed four games, Hill has been a top-10 fantasy wide receiver in every season until 2024.

When looking at some of Hill’s stats and peripheral metrics over the past few seasons, there is a steep drop-off in Hill’s targets per game, yards per target, a precipitous decline in YAC, as well as some of his target-earning metrics like targets per route run (TPRR) and his first season under 2.00 yards per route run. Collectively, those are all hard to ignore for a wide receiver over the age of 30.

Tyreek Hill’s game breaking *upside* is what’s keeping his ADP around the 2/3 turn

But the risk outweighs the reward:
◻️ Oblique injury
◻️ Damaged relationship w/ Tua
◻️ Major dip in success rate vs. man coverage last season (isolates him vs. QB play)
◻️ Age cliff is undefeated https://t.co/0VKG445fQC

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 23, 2025

Hill was hampered by off-the-field issues as well as a training camp wrist ligament injury that may have sapped some of his productivity last season. He finished last season with under 85 receptions, less than 1,000 receiving yards, and less than seven touchdowns for the first time since 2019. Add in some more off-the-field distractions with a domestic incident involving Hill and other erratic behavior, and Hill’s week-to-week status is volatile at best going forward.

It doesn’t feel particularly great to draft Hill right now. Hill comes off of draft boards as a third-round pick and among names like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins, plus other rock-solid veterans like Mike Evans and Davante Adams. Is there enough upside right now to draft him? Remember, we are talking about a 31-year-old wide receiver here, and Father Time is, famously, undefeated. His situation may have improved a little from the Jonnu Smith trade to Pittsburgh, but it’s not enough to paper over the warts that Hill has accumulated on his 2025 fantasy profile.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

When Christian McCaffrey closes the door on his NFL career, he’ll be fondly remembered as one of the best NFL running backs of his era and one of the most productive fantasy backs in recent memory. Remembering McCaffrey for what he was is completely different than what he currently is, and we need to take that into account when forecasting what his 2025 could look like.

In a “what have you done for me lately” sense, McCaffrey doesn’t exactly pop off the page with just four games played in 2024 after suffering tendinitis in both of his Achilles’ tendons and a PCL sprain in his knee. It’s not what you want to hear. Sure, he’s healthy for now, and the running back room was so beleaguered in training camp and the preseason that the 49ers had to go trade for former Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr.

Christian McCaffrey

He either stays healthy and is a Top 3-5 RB or he misses time and you regret drafting him.

I don't see a version of the 2025 season where he stays healthy and is RB15 in fantasy points per game.

— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) July 21, 2025

McCaffrey will be 29 at the start of Week 1, and since 2020, he has had at least one leg or thigh injury that has caused him to miss at least one game in every season but one – 2022. With a lot of tread on his tires from 1,871 career touches in his eight seasons, those touches could be taking their toll on the talented runner. It wasn’t long ago in 2023 when McCaffrey put up over 2,000 total yards en route to an RB1 finish, but running backs rarely age gracefully. 2023 was a long time ago in running back years. While he has put up some of the best seasons in fantasy history, that illustrates a ceiling he once had, not necessarily that he CURRENTLY has at this point in time.

Now, fantasy managers have to draft him in the first round to find out if he still has that ceiling in his age-29 season! McCaffrey feels very much like a trap pick right now, so I’ll happily let somebody else select him for the name value. What once was is not what it will always be, so while McCaffrey has had an awesome run as a fantasy running back in his career, I would want a much better price to take the chance on him, and with his first-round average draft position, that’s not happening. That means I’ll be fully out on McCaffrey this season.

Saquon Barkley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

Saquon Barkley was undoubtedly a huge fantasy success last season, averaging 22.2 fantasy points per game en route to dominating the fantasy football landscape. There’s no denying the fact that most fantasy teams that drafted him had a ton of success and ended up winning their fantasy leagues. I should know – he put quite a few of my teams in the dirt last season. Why is Barkley a bust then for 2025?

Well, we’re not playing 2024 fantasy football in 2025. What has been will not always be. The stars aligned for Barkley as a pick at the end of the first round and sometimes into the second round, which had the potential to return to form following some good seasons in New York, but not great in 2022 and 2023. Putting up a 2,005-yard season with 15 total touchdowns behind the most run-heavy offensive attack in the NFL, Barkley thrived in one of the best situations for any back in the NFL.

So, what’s changed for 2025? Well, you now have to draft him with a premium pick in the middle of the first round. That changes the thesis versus the chance of being able to make a pick and then snagging Barkley in the second round last season. That said, I’m not afraid of being completely out on Barkley due to the risk of variance when it comes to how offenses operate from one season to the next.

The Eagles finished the 2024 regular season with just 448 pass attempts total as a team, the third-lowest amount by any team since 2021, when the NFL went to a 17-game schedule. Week-to-week variance likely adds some passing attempts to the Eagles’ ledger for 2025, and even adding 40-to-50 passing attempts — which doesn’t seem like much — still takes some fantasy scoring off the top for Barkley. Also, touchdown variance by his quarterback, Jalen Hurts, and more touchdowns in the passing game would still affect Barkley’s overall bottom line.

As for Barkley, yes, he’s going to crush on the ground, but through the air? That’s a different story. Barkley was just pedestrian with not just his utilization, but his opportunity as well. Early in Barkley’s career with the Giants, he was often used as a safety valve in the receiving game. Besides 2020, when Barkley was injured after two games, he earned his lowest total targets (39) in a healthy season in 2024 and by far his lowest targets per game (2.4) as well. If Barkley is going to be almost solely dependent on rushing (ala Nick Chubb or Jonathan Taylor), that’s going to severely cut into his upside if he sees any sort of tick down in his rushing attempts, touchdowns, or both.

The reason why Barkley destroyed fantasy football is not because he did what he did, but the fact that he put up such an amazing season as a non-premium first-round pick and sometimes a second-round pick. Now, you have to pay the premium for Barkley, and while he could still put up a huge season, that production won’t crush other teams in your league in the way it did last season.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor had a very successful season in 2024, given the state of the team, especially at the quarterback position. It’s not like the quarterback position has improved; if anything, it’s gotten a lot muddier. While the revolving door of Anthony Richardson Sr. and Joe Flacco as signal-callers was turbulent enough for fantasy managers, it may not be meaningfully better with Daniel Jones now entrenched as the starter.

Taylor was fantasy football’s RB1 in 2021; he is not currently at that level entering his age-26 season. He’s seen decreased utilization in the receiving game with a career-low 18 receptions in 2024. Despite the 1,431 yards rushing and 12 total touchdowns, Taylor was merely fantasy’s RB12. The power of having a healthy receiving role is what separates great fantasy backs from merely good ones.

Jonathan Taylor Fantasy Points Per Game

2020: RB8
2021: RB1
2022: RB17 (6 games missed to injury)
2023: RB12 (7 games missed)
2024: RB7 (3 games missed)

He's 26 years old with over 2,100 carries in college and the NFL

Why is he the Dynasty RB7 on @KeepTradeCut ?! SELL

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) February 3, 2025

Taylor was one of the only constants in the Colts’ offense as he rushed for over 1,400 yards and was a league-winner with four straight 100-yard games plus five touchdowns in Weeks 16 and 17 to end the fantasy campaign. Taylor is one of the better real-life runners in the league, but at a second-round price tag in 2025 fantasy drafts, we want more production from him to justify a selection in the second round of drafts. Right now, Taylor feels very much like Chubb in terms of the archetype of a great real-life rusher on a team committed to giving him the ball, but a non-factor in the receiving game. Taylor's second-round price is a bit too high for a one-dimensional fantasy running back, no matter how good Taylor is at running the ball.

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Look, Josh Allen has been phenomenal for fantasy managers since 2020. This decade has seen Allen finish no lower than QB2 in each of the last five seasons. While putting him in the “overvalued” bucket seems like me just being a non-fun-having curmudgeon, there are some reasons bubbling up to the surface about Allen and his team situation, and also, his elite quarterback brethren around him that have me wondering if he really should be the QB1.

I do have Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels above Allen in my personal quarterback rankings, and it’s because they maintain their rushing prowess. Obviously, Allen runs quite a bit as well, with at least 500 yards rushing in his last four seasons, plus at least 12 rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. That said, entering his age-29 season, Allen could start to dial back some of the rushing work now that he’s getting a little older.

In fact, that’s already been happening with Allen, just at a gradual pace. It happens to quarterbacks as they start to get closer to their 30s, and then the rushing floor dries up to where it’s no longer a clear advantage. We’ve seen it from players like Cam Newton, Russell Wilson, and a host of others whose legs were a huge benefit, and then they weren’t.

Allen’s rushing yards have dipped from 763 and 762 yards in 2021 and 2022 to just over 500 yards in his last two seasons. The dip hasn’t been talked about too much because the touchdown equity has shot up in the last two seasons, but it’s a slight concern, and that’s likely because of head coach Sean McDermott and the team not wanting Allen to handle so much of the rushing workload. There’s a reason why they went out and drafted James Cook and Ray Davis in the last three seasons.

Elite rushing seasons from quarterbacks typically come early in careers, and if you’re going to sort through multiple elite quarterbacks with similar profiles, it’s a better bet to take the quarterback in the offense where they are “flexing their muscles” to see what they are capable of, e.g., Jayden Daniels. Lamar Jackson may just be an anomaly at this point, as he’s 28, but has the passing efficiency to back up his continued dominance on the ground with 915 rushing yards and four scores last season.

There are many other bets I’d rather make than Allen, the top quarterback in ADP, who typically is drafted at the end of the third round. A lot of excellent wide receivers, tight ends, and solid running backs land around where Allen is being drafted in average draft position, so there are way better uses of draft capital than Allen.

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