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Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/29/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, James Wood, and more!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have a banger slate of games on deck and plenty of options for possible home runs to bet on! The weather is looking hot, and there aren't any extreme winds to push us toward those spots, but I will be staying away from the Dodgers/Royals game as it is the likeliest to be postponed with possible rain.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, June 29, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/29/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, June 29:
- Isaac Paredes - Houston Astros
- Jonathan Aranda - Tampa Bay Rays
- James Wood - Washington Nationals
- Trevor Story - Boston Red Sox
- Julio Rodriguez - Seattle Mariners
- Nick Kurtz- Athletics
Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)
It looks like we might get a bit of rain in this one, but overall, I don't think it'll affect the game too much. Things are lining up nicely for Isaac Paredes in this one; the wind is pushing out toward left field. We all know Paredes and his extreme pull to the Crawford Boxes.
Jameson Taillon holds a rough 2.08 HR/9 this season and has been hit pretty hard by RHH as well. He has a .556 SLG against RHH and has been horrible overall for the Cubs this season.
Paredes has a nice 31% FB% on the season, too, and if he can get enough power under it, then this one is going to be a souvenir for somebody up in those Crawford Boxes.
Isaac Paredes - Houston Astros (17)
pic.twitter.com/2zMLnrp1xi— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) June 29, 2025
Jonathan Aranda OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The weather continues to be ideal here in Camden Yards, where the lefties have a massive edge. I think both Lowe brothers and Jonathan Aranda are viable options, and if you want to get sneaky, Jake Mangum makes for a solid option as well.
Jonathan Aranda has been lights out for this Rays offense. He has the third-highest AVG in the league at .331 and is coming off hitting his ninth home run of the season. He has done so all against RHP, and although Dean Kremer has only 1.20 HR/9, he has given up eight of his 12 home runs to LHH.
Kremer has given up the majority of his home runs off his four-seam and cutter, which account for almost half of his pitches. Aranda has smashed the fastball this year, where he has an xSLG of .523. Aranda is the favorite in this game to go yard, but I still believe there is plenty of value in his price with how well he has been hitting the ball.
James Wood OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+275 DraftKings Sportsbook)
I'm always down to attack a guy like Jack Kochanowicz, especially LHH. Lefties have 13 home runs on him and have a .537 SLG. His HR/9 has risen to 1.65 on the season with a hard-hit% of 47.1%.
It is hot in L.A., and the wind is blowing out to center field, making these ideal conditions for some bombs to be hit. I'm taking the obvious guy in James Wood, who has been one of the hottest hitters in all of baseball this season. But don't sleep on guys like Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, who have hit the ball hard this season as well.
Wood has hit 15 of his home runs on RHP this season and has an impressive .574 SLG against them as well. Wood has an average exit velocity this season of 95.7 mph, which is the highest on the team by quite a bit. He has four home runs in his last nine games, and I wouldn't be surprised if he made it five in his last 10 games after this one.
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Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)
This one is for y'all who love the BvP. Trevor Story has loved hitting against Eric Lauer; he has three home runs against him in his career and eight total hits in 22 ABs.
Lauer has a 45.2% hard-hit%, which is down significantly from his 2023 campaign, but it could start going up again at any time. Lauer has given up four of his five home runs to RHH this season.
Story vs. LHP this season has been solid for him; he has a .413 SLG and three home runs this season in nearly a third of the ABs, as he does against RHP. He hasn't been hitting the ball extremely hard this season, but I think this is a good spot for him against a pitcher he is relatively familiar with.
Julio Rodriguez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+370 DraftKings Sportsbook)
The homer in me is picking Julio Rodriguez here, who is so due for a home run. He gets a great spot here against Jack Leiter, who has a 42.5% hard-hit% and an 11.4% Barrel%, which is one of the highest on the slate.
Rodriguez has 11 home runs on the year so far, and we all know he is more than capable of more. He has been hitting the ball hard and has seen a nearly 5 mph increase in his average exit velocity recently. He also has good BvP versus Leiter, who has given up two homers against Rodriguez.
If the roof is open in Texas, this will be ideal conditions for Rodriguez. It is 90+ degrees in Arlington, and the wind is blowing out to left field, which is perfect for someone who tends to pull the ball more that way. I think guys like Dominic Canzone and Cal Raleigh are also viable options, but I like the price we get here on Rodriguez.
Nick Kurtz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Nick Kurtz in Yankee Stadium against Marcus Stroman?! Sign me up! Stroman has a 1.93 HR/9 in his first three starts this season, and it has been a brutal start for him. Stroman also has a 12.1% Barrel% to go along with a 45.5% hard-hit%, which is the worst of his career by quite a bit.
I can't believe he is still +400 with how well he has played recently. He has seven home runs in 13 games, and he lines up with the short porch well here in New York. Kurtz has hit all but one of his 11 home runs this season on RHP and has a SLG of .596 against them.
He has the 10th-best odds in this game, which is great value for us for someone as hot as Kurtz is right now.
Nick Kurtz hits his 7th home run in his last 15 games 😳 pic.twitter.com/bA1NViqW7O
— MLB (@MLB) June 28, 2025
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