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Kev Mahserejian takes a look at the redraft and dynasty fantasy baseball outlook for new Boston Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo after being traded from the Dodgers for star OF Mookie Betts.
Alex Verdugo is free. He is off to Boston and rid of the shackles of the Dodgers' outfield committee. With Mookie Betts as the major piece he was moved for, Verdugo will have an outfield spot with his name on it. Where exactly the Red Sox play him -- right field, in all likelihood -- will be determined in time, but for now, that is irrelevant for fantasy purposes.
Verdugo is extremely relevant for the 2020 season and beyond. Given his talent profile, it is best to assume that he will bat at the top of the order in a potent Red Sox lineup that also features Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, J.D Martinez and, hopefully, a non-2019 version of Andrew Benintendi.
Verdugo is most likely to bat leadoff if he is healthy and has a good spring at the plate, and that will be fruitful given the power bats behind him.
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Redraft Outlook
Where he should be drafted is up for discussion. There are definitely red flags that come with Verdugo for redraft. The stress fracture in his back is a major cause for concern, given that it is already possibly sidelining him for Opening Day and who knows how long after. He sustained the injury in May 2019, but it was just deemed "stiffness" at the time and he played through it.
Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports that interim manager Ron Roenicke said that Verdugo (back/oblique) is "coming along well" in the rehab process and could be ready to play in Grapefruit League games by mid-March,
While this update is optimistic, Inside Injuries in his Athletic article speculated on Verdugo's injury being a tad more severe than recent reports suggest. His take is that it is unlikely that a stress fracture suffered last season should still be bothering him and that the issue may be deeper. Unfortunately, we will not know until we know for sure and for now, Verdugo's ADP is suppressed closer to pick 200 than 100, where it would be if he were 100 percent healthy.
Verdugo received an expanded role with the Dodgers in early May when A.J. Pollock was placed on the IL due to an elbow infection. For the season, in 377 plate appearances, he hit 12 home runs, drove in 44 runs, scored 43 runs, and stole four bases while batting .294. This was his first "full" season in action as a Major Leaguer and he did not disappoint, especially given that he played through back discomfort throughout the season.
His bat should transition to Fenway Park well as it is much friendlier for hitters than Dodger Stadium but unfortunately, very stingy when it comes to giving up home runs to lefties. According to FanGraphs' Handedness Park Factors, Fenway Ranks in the bottom tier of parks for left-handed home runs. Nevertheless, it grades particularly well for extra-base hits which should keep Verdugo very fantasy viable.
An "accurate" projection is hard to give out at the moment due to the uncertainty of his status for Opening Day.
Dynasty Outlook
He is only 23 (turning 24 in May) years old and should remain a staple at the top of the order wherever he plays for the next decade. His dynasty value is fairly secure with a high floor alongside youngsters like Bogaerts and Devers for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox may not be as good as they were in their World Series-winning 2018 campaign, however, they will be secure with a potent offense to fuel Verdugo's counting stats.
Verdugo is a premium offensive talent with strong tools -- 55/60 hit, 40/45 game power, and 55/55 raw power, according to FanGraphs. His speed is nothing special, but he is athletic and young enough to swipe somewhere around 10 bases in a full season throughout his first next few years.
He's such a good hitter, with great plate discipline, that it really does not matter whether you are in a league with batting average, on-base percentage or OPS as one of its hitting categories. However, Verdugo is still so young that there are legitimate questions as to whether he can fully tap into his power.
Verdugo's comps range from realistic (Benintendi) to absolute ceiling/100th percentile outcome (Christian Yelich). For now, it is best to assume that he will be a very good hitter who will be capable of driving in runs, scoring, hitting a few dingers and stealing a few bases -- essentially a perennial pick in the top 100 who does not hurt your team in any particular category while boosting your average a ton. If he ever moves on from Boston, his power could see a massive boost given that, as previously mentioned, Fenway is quite brutal for lefty home runs. This could bring him closer to that lofty Yelich comp since Milwaukee's slugger did not see his own power boost until he moved from the least favorable park for lefties (Marlins Park) to the second-most (Miller Park).
In conclusion, Verdugo is an extremely skilled baseball player and for fantasy purposes, his value should skyrocket if his health checks out. For redraft, it is hard to buy-in at the moment given the lack of information available regarding his injury. Minor updates from the team do not carry much weight and it would be a detriment if things turned out more serious than they appear. In dynasty formats, he is a great buy-low candidate with other managers possibly worried about long-term issues with his health or how his transition to Boston will affect his performance.
