Should We Adjust Expectations for the Giants Offense?

This was the year the New York Giants were supposed to rebound on offense, Eli Manning was going to have one of the best seasons of his career, and the offensive line was going to create holes for the running game and protect Eli. With the trio of Odell Beckham Jr, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, to go along with second overall pick Saquon Barkley, this offense should have been unstoppable.

Instead, Eli Manning (three touchdowns) and Saquon Barkley (one touchdown) have little to show for it. The offensive line that added Nate Solder in the off-season from the New England Patriots and drafted first-round pick Will Hernandez, has allowed 12 sacks in three games.

This is not what the Giants, the fans or fantasy owners signed up for. There is a lot to consider when forecasting the expectations for the rest of the year from a fantasy perspective but so far it does not look good.

Woe Line

First off, let's discuss the offensive line. In the Week 2 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys, Giants center Jon Halapio suffered a season-ending injury (broken ankle) and will miss the remainder of the season. This is a huge blow to an already weak Giants offensive line that cannot protect Eli Manning. The offensive line has four new starters with the only returning lineman being Erick Flowers (who was thankfully benched against the Houston Texans in Week 3). They also have all five offensive linemen playing new positions after they moved Flowers from left to right tackle this off-season. Most of the problem against the Cowboys was communication on the offensive line which can be blamed on the lack of experience of playing together.

In the running game, according to Pro Football Focus, the Giants running backs are averaging 0.17 yards before first contact per attempt. That is easily the lowest average in the NFL and it is not even close. Barkley has been stopped for a loss or no gain on 13 of his 46 carries this season which ranks as one of the highest rates in the league. If it was not for Barkley's capability to make defenders miss tackles or break free of first contact (12 out of the 25 touches against Dallas) those numbers could be a lot worse.

Eli Manning is averaging a mere 4.2 Air Yards Per Completion. To go with that the Giants are actually averaging as a team 5.4 yards per play which is near the bottom of the league. Compare this to last year behind an even worse overall offense on paper and Manning's Completed Air Yards average was 5.1 yards, which ironically ranked 28th as well. Imagine if Manning actually had time to throw the ball and allow a play to develop. Eli currently ranks 25th in the league in time to throw with 2.62 seconds.

Where Manning is actually excelling is completion percentage which goes from 61.8% in 2017 to 73.6% through three games in 2018. When targeting your running back as a first choice than trying to find your receivers and throwing for such short distances one would at least expect the completion percentage to be high. This may be great for PPR owners of Barkley and OBJ, who is actually ahead of his pace from last year when he had 25 receptions and 302 yards through four games, he is on pace to easily surpass that this year since through three games he already has 24 receptions, and 271 yards receiving. The problem is Beckham has no touchdowns and as a first-round pick in fantasy drafts that is not what fantasy owners signed up for.

Evan Engram is also suffering from similar problems as Odell is, though the tight end position has two out of the three touchdowns that Eli has thrown this year, one which came in garbage time against the Cowboys. From a fantasy perspective, Engram has a 76.92% catch rate compared to Odell's 70.59%, which is actually higher for both players compared to last year. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, adding injury to insult, Engram went down with an MCL sprain Week 3 and will miss between 2 -4 weeks. Rhett Ellison is the next man up at the tight end position.

One bright spot finally showed up for the Giants, and it came in the form of the Texans defense, where Manning threw for 297 yards and two touchdowns while throwing no interceptions. Saquon Barkley rushed for a touchdown. Barkley finished with 82 yards rushing, while Beckham had 109 receiving yards. The good news from the QB perspective is that he spread the ball around, completing passes to six different players and Beckham, Shepard and Barkley for five or more completions.

With a remaining schedule where the Giants face defenses like the Bears, Eagles (twice), Panthers, and the always competitive in-division game with the Redskins (who beat the Green Bay Packers) and Cowboys (surprisingly good pass defense) still to come, fantasy owners may potentially have to temper their fantasy expectations. Considering the ADP of Engram, Barkley, Shepard, and OBJ, it is going to be difficult with the offensive line problems, Eli Manning's incapability to overcome a pass rush, and short passing game for them to live up to the value they were drafted at. Unless Manning and the Giants turn things around quickly, fantasy owners are in for some disappointment.