Projecting Power in 2022: Increases in Air% Exit Velocities

December 20, 2021

Using changes in exit velocity on balls hit in the air, Nicklaus Gaut projects 2022 power hitter risers. Target these hitters for home runs in fantasy baseball.

Balls come and balls go but regardless of the current offensive environment in baseball, what hasn't changed is our fantasy love of power.

But after the happy fun ball days of 2019 and 2020, the MLB went back to the lab in an attempt to deaden some of the bouncy ball hijinks. And deaden they did, dropping to a league-wide .314 wOBA that was down from .320 in 2019-2020 and with the distance of fly balls/line drives averaging 286 feet (the same as in 2016-2018) after averaging 289 feet in 2019-2020.

With that in mind, it's even more important to identify the most solid sources of power as finding it late in drafts might not be as easy as in drafts the past few years. So it's time once again to cue the 80's rock music and start bending frying pans in half. Let's check in on the Power team.

Methodology, Terms, and Conditions

Home Run Per PA - This obviously needs no explanation but while simple, it's a good measure for comparing home runs on a more apple-to-apple basis, independent of playing time.

Barrel% per BBE - Barrel per batted-ball event, in which barrel is a somewhat fluid term. From BaseballSavant.com:

The Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.

To be Barrelled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.

Air% (100+ mph) - The percent of a player's ball hit in the air (fly balls + line drives) with a minimum exit velocity of 100 mph, a stat that correlates strongly to future power production.

Air% Average Exit Velocity - The average exit velocity of a player's balls hit in the air, which is another stat that correlates strongly to future power production.

Being The Elite

Shohei Ohtani, UT, LAA

2021: 46 HR, 56.7% Air% (100+ mph), +17.9 points

After hitting 46 home runs in 2021 and putting himself firmly into the MVP conversation, the only thing left to say about Ohtani is whether or not that powerful outburst will continue in 2022. And looking at the overall gains he saw in his upper-tier exit velocities, it's hard to say they won't. But it gets a bit easier to get down on him if just looking at his second half, as his massive gains over what he did in 2019-2020 mostly evaporated.

Ohtani averaged 0.96 HR per PA (100th percentile) in the first half of 2021 after running a 0.40 HR per PA (60th percentile) in 2020 and 0.42 HR/PA (61st percentile) in 2019. But that rate dropped to 0.44 HR per PA (69th percentile) over his final 296 PA, hitting just 13 HR in the second half, after finishing the first half with 33 HR.

This feels like a "not as good as in the first, not as bad as in the second" type of situation. If you're counting on 45+ HR when you draft him, you're probably getting disappointed. But 35+ HR feels perfectly reasonable and that (along with ~.260 AVG and the counting stat rub he'll get batting near a (theoretically) healthy Mike Trout) is enough to again make Ohtani a prime fantasy asset, even if it's not quite what it was in 2021.

Franmil Reyes, UT, CLE

2021: 30 HR, 55.9% Air% (100+ mph), +6.7 points

The Franimal only played 115 games in 2021 but Reyes still managed 30 HR in  466 PA,  with his 0.64 HR per PA placing him in the 96th percentile. Though, he was much much prolific in the first half, dropping from a 0.74 HR/PA to a 0.58 HR/PA in the second half. But even though that drop was (relatively) big, his second-half rate still placed him in the 85th percentile.

But while his home run rate suffered, his upper Air% velocities didn't. Reyes had a 55.8% Air% (100+ mph) in the first half that was in the 98th percentile, while his 56.0% Air% (100+ mph) in the second half was in the 99th percentile. Not that Reyes has ever been light-hitting in this department but he did return to the 99th percentile after "dropping" to the 96th in 2020.

In the earliest of ADP, Reyes is coming in around #138, with a 115 minimum and 172 maximum (and being inexplicably taken before Adolis Garcia). But the power is locked in and if he gets close to the 640 PA that Steamer is projecting for 2022, then Reyes should provide some serious surplus value.

Bryce Harper, OF, PHI

2021: 35 HR, 51.8% Air% (100+ mph), +3.6 points

Harper finished as a borderline top-10 hitter in 2021, slashing .309/.429/.615 over 599 PA, with 35 HR, 101 R, 84 RBI, and 13 SB. While his total line was obviously superb, it doesn't quite do justice to just how dominant he was in the second half, running a .453 xwOBA over his final 250 PA, up from a .367 in the previous 250 PA. His xwOBA on contact rose from .507 to .531, while his 1.188 OPS in the second was up from .899.

And Harper's exit velocities just keep going up. His Air% (100+) has gone from the 84th percentile in 2018, to 9oth in 2019 and 95th in 2020. In 2021 he finished the season in the 98th percentile, rising from the 90th in the first half to 100th in the second. His Barrel% has also come up steadily, finishing in the 99th percentile in 2021, again representing the third year in a row of improvements.

With big-time exit velocities and a hitter's home park, Harper's high floor makes him one of the safer bets to earn back his draft price.

Tyler O'Neill, OF, STL

2021: 34 HR, 55.3% Air% (100+ mph), +19.1 points

O'Neill truly arrived in 2021, hitting 34 home runs in just 537 PA while slashing .286/.352/.560, with a .384 wOBA and 144 wRC+. And O'Neill provided all of that pop even dealing multiple hand injuries, including a broken finger in May. Consequentially, he only finished with  537 PA, making 34 HR even more impressive. His 0.63 HR/PA for the season was in the 95th percentile, increasing from 0.60 HR/PA in the first half to 0.67 HR/PA in the second.

What makes O'Neill's continuing power even more believable going forward, is that his power metrics stayed steady virtually all season, even while dealing with aforementioned (and generally tricky for hitters) hand injuries. Even with small fluctuations, O'Neill never left the elite tiers:

This is what a power breakout looks like.

Another encouraging sign is how O'Neill's launch angles have evolved from an extreme uppercut swing from 2018-2020 when his LA% (+38 degrees) stayed between the 95th and 98th percentile. Increases in this area can signal further power but also a lower BABIP. And being near the top of the leaderboard can also lead to more and more cans of corn and easy-outs. In 2021, O'Neill dropped this from 27.8% in 2020 to 11.5% in 2021, finishing in the 79th percentile.

For a more visual representation of this change, here are his launch angle charts from 2020 and 2021 (courtesy of Baseball Savant). Notice how many of O'Neill's outs in 2020 came from angles >35-degrees compared to how few in 2021. Also notice how many of his outs came from hits with line-drive angles, as opposed to groundball ones.

To me, this says that O'Neill's .286 batting average isn't set for as much regression as his .366 BABIP might suggest, as he also ran a .279 xBA - hardly surprising given the above numbers on his changing launch angles. Remember that BABIP is only results-based while xBA relies on exit velocity and launch angles. So when I see a discrepancy like this for a player that hits the ball as hard as O'Neill does, I'm more inclined to believe that he won't get as hammered by BABIP regression as you might normally think. AKA Crushing lasers tend to lead to a higher BABIP. I'm not banking on a .286 again but .270-ish will play considering how big the power potential is.

Catching Balls, Crushing Bombs

Everyone knows about just how powerful Salvador Perez was in 2021 but he wasn't the only back stopper to make large leaps in their Air% exit velocities. If hunting for power from the tools of ignorance, they're a good place to start:

Salvador Perez, C, KC

2021: 48 HR, 52.1% Air% (100+ mph), +15.0 points

You already know that Perez had a catcher season for the ages. While I still expect him to hit plenty of bombs, his current 38 ADP means you'll really have to pay to find out. It stings to say (as he was only virtually all of my redraft teams last season and I'd love to welcome him again) but unless he falls quite a bit, that price will likely be too rich for me.

Yasmani Grandal, C, CHW

2021: 23 HR, 49.0% Air% (100+ mph), +20.7 points

Sweet lord, Yasmani, do you think you could take just a few fewer walks? Grandal led qualified hitters with a 23.2% BB% rate in 2021, up from 15.5% in 2020 and 17.2% in 2019. With his home run per-PA rates jumping to the 94th percentile from the 62nd in 2020 and the 65th in 2019 (backed by big exit velocity increases) maybe it's time to be a bit more aggressive. Especially with how good a healthy White Sox lineup is expected to be.

Mike Zunino, C, TB

2021: 33 HR, 59.4% Air% (100+ mph), +20.3 points

After averaging 0.31 HR/PA in 2019 and 0.48 HR/PA in 2020, Zunino posted a 0.88 HR/PA in 2021, finishing in the 100th percentile. And he kept it 100 elsewhere too, finishing in the top percentile for Air% (100+ mph), Average EV, and Barrel%.

Mitch Garver, C, MIN

2021: 13 HR, 50.0% Air% (100+ mph), +22.0 points

Mitch has proven he can crush bombs but not that he can stay healthy, playing in just 68 games in 2021 after only 23 games in 2020. If he can again play in the 100-game range (and the 350 PA that would come with it, Garver could be a top-5 five catching option. But that's a big if.

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