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Welcome back, NBA betting brethren! Monday the Spurs let us down with a disappointing loss, but the Bulls had a huge comeback win and our New York-Toronto over hit. Unfortunately, the Spurs lost so bad they couldn't even cover in our teaser, but I am still heartened by our above-average start to the season!
We have eleven more games tonight and some really tightly projected contests as five of those games have spreads of three points or fewer. Remember, even with 6-7 games worth of data now for each team, we should be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, November 3rd, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 12-9
- Against the Spread 6-2
- Over/Under 4-2
- Teasers/Parlays 2-5
Man, when you take away the parlays (which are always going to be harder to hit), we would be sitting at 10-4 this season! Let's keep the good times rolling today!
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted four spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
New York Knicks (+1) @ Indiana Pacers (218 total)
So I am back to picking on the Pacers here despite the fact that whipped on the Spurs on Monday. For me, the likely reasons that Indy is favored here are that they are at home and they will get their top guard Malcolm Brogdon back in the lineup tonight. They're going to have Brogdon and LeVert both healthy at the same time for the first time all season and it makes me a tad nervous, I'll admit.
But I still think the Knicks are a better team, and a more well-rounded team and that they pull out a tough win here because that's what they do - they grind. They are also 4-3 ATS this year while Indy is only 3-5. I like this game to be somewhat high-scoring but I think the individual matchups favor Julius Randle and the Knicks offense more here. On a slate full of pick-em games, this is the one I feel the most confident in and I'm backing the Knicks for a hard-fought road win tonight.
The Pick: Knicks ML, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Boston Celtics (-7) @ Orlando Magic (215.5 total)
So as you can see from my chart the model is still favoring unders almost across the board, but we have seen Vegas start to adjust and take away some of the initial value on hitting the under that existed in the first week of the season.
But there is one game that it likes for the over and it's this one! The average NBA game has seen about 217 points scored this season yet Vegas has this one pegged under that at 215.5. It hasn't budged too much yet, but I was expecting to see some people jump on it early - here's why.
After a slow start offensively, Orlando's offense is trending up in a big way. They are coming off a 115-97 win against Minnesota on Monday and those 115 points scored were a season-high for this team. Despite being only 2-6 on the season, this team has been competitive over their last four games, only losing by an average margin of 5.6 points in that stretch and then beating the T-Wolves. Orlando has now hit the over in six of eight games this year!
Meanwhile, Boston has hit the over in four of seven games and their defense has really struggled to stop people this year. While this game has a slightly below-average pace, the poor defense on both ends paired with the solid offenses (Boston's is very good, Orlando's is improving) should get us over that 215.5 threshold. I like this over up as high as 217.5 and I think it hits 220 tonight with Boston pulling out a close victory and Orlando hanging tough until the end.
The Pick: OVER 215.5 (good up to 217.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Today I am parlaying home underdogs. I think the Cavs and Spurs can win these games outright if you wanna bet some dogs today, the Magic are less likely to win but I think they can keep it close. We are buying five points for each dog here and hoping these games come down to the wire.
The Picks: Cleveland, Orlando, San Antonio - 5 point teaser (+130 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Instead of my positional stat matrix, today I included my team stat matrix for your prop betting needs! Each value here is the difference between the stats allowed by each team when compared to the league average.
For example, the Celtics are allowing six more rebounds to opposing teams than the average NBA team.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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