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Fantasy football drafts are all about finding value. As important as it is to find undervalued players, breakouts, sneaky late-round picks and sleepers -- it's equally important to avoid fantasy landmines and potential busts.
Today we're looking at some running backs who may be overvalued, or disappoint fantasy football managers, and you may want to think twice about before drafting them. This list may include running backs in bad situations on bad teams, players coming back from injuries, RBs with playing time concerns, or other concerning factors that should be analyzed.
In all of these cases, you're either looking at a risky pick that can potentially backfire on you, or an ADP that is too high. The latter may cause you to overlook other different players on draft day -- alternative options that can provide a better returns on investment in the same rounds.
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Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Moss is going off the board as a RB3, but the problem is, that feels like his ceiling in this offense. In the games where Zack Moss and Devin Singletary were healthy last season, Singletary actually played more snaps (54% to 46%), while they split ground work and Singletary was more involved in the passing game. Singletary actually scored more fantasy points in those games as well.
#Bills 2020 RB usage in games both played (throwing out Wk 17)
- Zack Moss: 46% snaps, 9.1 rush per game, 1.4 targets per game (4% target share), 29 red zone looks, 8.21 fantasy PPG, 0.81 fantasy point per touch (555 yds, 5 TD)
Current ADP: RB35 (pick 99 overall)
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 11, 2021
The big thing for Moss is that he will be used in the red zone. But, even that upside is capped as Josh Allen is the only QB in NFL history to score at least eight rushing TDs in his first three seasons. Even if you think that number decreases, it won’t be by much. Allen is the goal-line runner for the Bills. The Bills ran the ball just 40 percent of the time last season but that number decreased as the season went on and they completely abandoned the run game in the playoffs. Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll continues to talk up how passing is simply more valuable than running on a per touch basis.
- Devin Singletary: 54% snaps, 9.3 rush per game, 3.1 targets per game (9% target share), 19 red zone looks, 8.52 fantasy PPG, 0.74 fantasy point per touch (712 yds, 1 TD)
Current ADP: RB47 (143 overall)
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) June 11, 2021
Do not expect the offense to shy away from that approach this season. Plus, Singletary has worked with an independent coach to work on adding more burst and speed. Who knows if it will work, but it's just more competition for Moss. Oh, and the Bills front office has already indicated they will take a hot-hand approach. I just can’t get excited for drafting Moss this season and will let others chase his hype.
-- Michael Florio
Michael Carter, New York Jets
Carter led the team in rush attempts and carries in their last preseason game against the Packers. That's part of the problem. The exhibition game leaders are usually the second and third-stringers because the starters barely see the field, if at all. Carter has been running behind both Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson throughout training camp and that hasn't changed in exhibition game action.
Jets HB snap count after 2 drives
Tevin Coleman 6
Ty Johnson 6
Michael Carter 0— Nathan Jahnke (@PFF_NateJahnke) August 21, 2021
Carter has been one of the running back sleepers most enticing to Zero RB drafters because he was selected by a team where the job was his to claim. Either he hasn't done enough to make that happen or the new coaching staff plans to stick with the veterans they have until their hand is forced. Either way, he's looking riskier by the day, even as an RB3.
Most are expecting some sort of running back by committee for the Jets, and the ADP for Carter is still pretty high. He may emerge as the lead running back at some point in the season, but it certainly looks like he won't have consistent standalone value when the NFL season starts. It's a big price tag to pay for such an unproven commodity.
-- Pierre Camus
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
If we run the tape back on the 2021 Raiders offseason, it’s honestly hard to come away excited for the upcoming season. It feels very much like being forced to watch a car accident over and over while somehow trying to find positive takeaways. Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock started off the offseason by trading away Trent Brown and cutting Richie Incognito, two of their best offensive lineman. They then let their most productive WR, Nelson Agholor, walk in free agency and replaced his eight touchdowns with Buffalo’s most recent castoff, John Brown, who has since been released. That alone glosses over the fact that Henry Ruggs had one of the worst seasons compared to his rookie class in 2020, averaging a paltry two catches per contest in 13 games.
But why would Vegas stop there? Gruden and Mayock decided to burn even more cap space with a 2-year, 14.5 million dollar deal for Kenyan Drake. Nothing quite says ‘vote of confidence’ like your front office signing another running back to a multi-year deal. If you’re looking for a silver lining for Jacobs, there unfortunately just isn’t one. His yards-per-carry average dropped almost a full yard last year. He’ll also have a hard time getting to 1,000 yards in 2021 with Drake in the fold.
Jacobs realistically should be priced lower than his 28-29 overall ADP and closer to another recent timeshare running back like Melvin Gordon, who’s sitting in the 50-60 range of best ball drafts. If you don’t get a discount, you should get out of drafting Jacobs this season.
-- Josh Hayes
David Johnson, Houston Texans
According to Aaron Reiss of The Athletic, Johnson has acknowledged his reduced role heading into the 2021 season. There were moments last season where he looked good, but remember, he was playing with Deshaun Watson. Teams couldn't stack the box against the Texans last season like they'll be able to this season against Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills.
The Texans also brought in backfield competition in the form of Phillip Lindsay and Mark Ingram II. Lindsay has actually been pretty good in his three-year career, averaging 4.8 yards per carry and topping 1,000 yards in his first two seasons with the Broncos.
Johnson's fantasy value in Arizona was predicated on the heavy target share. Last season, he averaged 3.8 targets per game, and that was in large part due to the Week 15 game vs. the Colts when he saw 11 targets from Watson. It's telling that Johnson has already acknowledged a reduced role heading into the 2021 season. Add in the fact that the Texans aren't likely to win more than four games, plus the added backfield competition, and you've got a recipe for failure for the 29-year old.
-- Adam Koffler
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