RADIO
A key part of doing a fantasy draft is avoiding players who find themselves in a bad situation. The wrong pick can completely tank your season. On the other hand, rostering players in perfect situations can be the ultimately league-winning move for savvy fantasy GMs.
Today, let's talk about some potential busts and sleepers at the forward position. For whatever reason -- be it talent, lack of opportunity, chances to rack up minutes, good and bad environments, etc-- these are players who fantasy GMs are currently buying at too high or too low ADPs this early in the pre-season.
Let's look at some centers that have bust/sleeper potential this year in fantasy basketball leagues looking at their early September ADPs.
Undervalued: Kelly Olynyk - Detroit Pistons
The Houston Rockets traded for Kelly Olynyk last season, or rather the Miami Heat acquired Victor Oladipo from Houston in exchange for Olynyk (and Avery Bradley) to make salaries work. Moving to Texas was good for Olynyk's game as he raised his average line from a 10-6-2-1 per-game one to a much healthier 19-8-4-1 as a Rocket. Obviously, Houston is starting to put the first pieces of its rebuilding effort in place, so Olynyk (entering his age-30 season) was never going to fit in the Rockets timeline and younger roster of guys; thus, Houston's decision to let Kelly leave in free agency.
Fantasy GMs out there seem to be scared of Detroit given Olynyk's stupid ADP of 130 as I'm writing this. Yes, the Pistons won't win a lot of games, but Olynyk is coming off a top-50 fantasy season in which he averaged the 10th-most FP per game among centers. Playing his best basketball in another bad team (way worse than the 2022 iteration) in Houston. Detroit waved goodbye to starting-center Mason Plumlee this summer opening the paint to Olynyk, and you bet he's going to make the most of the chance as he's ever done as a pro. Last year, Olynyk was one of only five centers (KAT, Vucevic, Porzingis, Wood) to average a 10-7 baseline while attempting 3+ three-point shots per game, which speaks volumes of his floor-stretching prowess and ways of racking up numbers in multiple ways.
Overvalued: Myles Turner - Indiana Pacers
With his future in the air, as it's been the case for at least a couple of years already, banking on Turner seems a tall task for those managing in fantasy basketball leagues. And not only that, but Turner's actual production on the court with the Pacers has been shaky at best. Turner finished the 2020 season ranked 85th overall, then dropped to nearly the 120th position this past year. But he missed time, you said? Sure, but even on a per-game basis--and averaging a more than healthy 31 MPG--he could only finish as the 17th-best C in FPPG and the 82nd-best player without position restrictions.
Turner's ADP sits at around 40 as I'm writing this. Players with similar ADPs such as Valanciunas, Capela, Boucher, and Wood all project to better years in 2022 and are already coming off top-15-to-20 seasons from players at the position in 2021. Turner's usage rate was absolutely murdered last year to a measly 16.4 USG% and he most definitely did not make up for it by shooting a ridiculous 47.7% from the floor on 9.2 FGA per game. Turner's 4.4 3PA per game kind of help him a bit as he's a true floor stretcher, but it's not that he's a walking bucket. Only the 3.4 BPG he somehow was able to post last year helped his fantasy value, but I'm afraid that alone (not even considering the inevitable regression) isn't going to cut it for me to draft him with a top-40 pick.
Undervalued: Clint Capela - Atlanta Hawks
Contrary to Kelly Olynyk's (read above), Capela's game is predicated on manning the middle and sitting in the paint for good. Not that you can hate that, though. Capela just signed a two-year extension with the up-and-coming Hawks, pretty much aligning his future with that of partner-in-crime John Collins as Atlanta's big men of choice. Oh, and I haven't even mentioned played for a team in which the main playmaker is already a top-20 player in the L and goes by the name of Trae. Not bad, this outlook.
Capela became one of only 37 players in the history of the NBA to put up a 14-14 season last year, and just the sixth to do so in the past 10 years (along with Drummond, Whiteside, Love, Varejao, and Howard). Capela didn't even reach 40 games in 2020, but healthy and at the top of his game in 2021 he performed like a top-20 fantasy player averaging the sixth-highest FPPG tally among centers. His current 42 ADP isn't very low or cheap by any means, but it still sells Captain Cap short of his upside if he can stay on the court for 60+ games as he did last season (63).
Overvalued: Deandre Ayton - Phoenix Suns
This is what I call the "Finals Bias". Don't get me wrong; I love Ayton and I think what this man just did in the last postseason was absolutely fantastic for a third-year man playing his first playoff-basketball in the NBA. Looking at players with no more than three years of experience, only five in the past decade have been able to post a 15-11 per-game average in one of those seasons: Ayton, Embiid, KAT, Anthony Davis, and Marc Gasol. Not bad company. But Ayton happens to be the third-banana in Phoenix's squad at least until Chris Paul is done and the Book-Ayton pairing becomes the true leading partnership.
Ayton logged a rather low 18.2 USG% over his 69 regular-season games in 2021: only Ayton, Gobert, Myles Turner, and Capela logged below-20 USG% while playing 30+ MPG. Gobert and Capela, though, ranked 12th and 21st in FPPG compared to Ayton's 39th finish in that category among all fantasy players. There is a realistic chance Ayton keeps improving for the next five seasons, sure, but he's a no-go shooter from beyond the paint and is part of a team with plenty of backcourt options that killed his assists' upside with Ayton finishing at just 1.4 APG. Capela and Gobert, again, had lower assists per game, but they had at least three more RPG than Ayton, making up for that difference, while both averaged 2+ BPG and Ayton just averaged 1.2 of them. Gobert and Ayton have the same ADP (29.2 to 29.4) but it's clear who's worth paying that for and who's not.
Undervalued: Jonas Valanciunas - New Orleans Pelicans
Here is your no. 1 JoVa stan. I'm sorry, but that's how it goes. Call me biased if you want. Valanciunas has played for two franchises in the past three seasons and he will be donning fresh threads once more once we reach the tipoff of the 2022 campaign--making that three teams in four years, only now as a Pelican. Valanciunas, also, has put up an 11-8 baseline in all of his pro-seasons with the exception of his rookie year (9-6 back then in just 24 MPG). Valanciunas doesn't know how not to excel, folks, and that won't change even while playing next to supernova Zion Williamson.
I get the worries. In Toronto and Memphis, neither team featured a go-to big man poised to threaten Jonas' numbers and opportunities. There will be one in NOLA: no less than Zion. That's cool and all, but Valanciunas will keep his near-dub-dub up no matter what. I just don't see the downside here. For someone with back-to-back top-30 finishes in the last two years, an ADP of 41 looks rather nice these days. That's not a super discounted play, I know, but of the 10 true-centers with ADPs of 41 or higher (meaning, getting drafted earlier) Valanciunas finished with a higher FPPG mark than three of them, and has a better ROI projection than all but three (Gobert, Vucevic, and Adebayo).
Overvalued: Jusuf Nurkic - Portland Trailblazers
I have a confession to make: I hated Denver passing on Nurk in favor of developing around Nikola Jokic (I didn't really like any of the two that much) back in the day. How wrong I was... Anyway, Nurkic is not bad, per se, but he's not an MVP-caliber talent either. Sorry, not sorry. Jusuf Nurkic has become a perennial 13-9 baseline-averager since leaving the Rocky Mountains, which is a very-good-not-great line for a biggie playing 25+ MPG in the past five years. If Nurk can keep developing an outside stroke a la Brook Lopez (Nurkic has shot 1.3 and 0.8 3PA per game in the past two years compared to just 0.1 in the seasons before), he might become a little bit more valuable; until then, his current ADP of 68 is still rather expensive to my eyes.
Now, that's not a sky-high ADP. Snatching a top-100 performer for that price, if you really love him, isn't that bad. But it's definitely not a league-winning play either. Everything Nurk gives you with his fantastic shooting (one of only six centers with at least 60/40/60 splits in 2021) he takes away due to his low playing time and health issues. Nurk has only played 8 and 37 games in the past two years (he's only played more than 65 games twice in his career since 2015) and his minutes cratered to just 24 MPG in 2021. That might not change next season as Portland just acquired Larry Nance and Cody Zeller (to fill Enes Kanter's hole) while the Blazers already cut down his usage to just 9 FGA per game compared to 2018 and 2019's 11.5+ FGA per-game average.
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