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The Fantasy Sports Writers Association award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series returns on RotoBaller.com! Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information.
On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts and media members provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on their commentaries. These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game:
In this edition, we consult with a Major League Baseball Scout who has been observing the game from his perch since the early 1980s. We go around the Majors with him as he shares his detailed scouting reports on many key players that we are targeting on draft day. Scout's takes are in italics.
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Trevor Bauer
“Last year over a third of his outings came against Detroit and Pittsburgh. He pitched mostly against the A.L. and N.L. Central. His career splits say he is better in the first half. By August and September he runs out of gas, and he was able to avoid that last season. He is going to be under more pressure going to the World Champs, he has a big contract and the fans will get on him as a villain on the road. What he did last year was remarkable, even in a short season, but it will be pretty tough to keep up that level of performance over a full regular season. He will still have more strikeouts than innings pitched, but he will have about a 3.95 ERA.”
Trevor Bauer's 2020 splits by opponents, via ESPN.com
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Last season, Bauer made two starts against the Tigers (0.68 ERA) and two against the Pirates (1.46). He also made three against the Brewers (2-1, 2.66 ERA), who were 26th in hitting. Bauer had a 2.08 ERA in two starts vs. the Cubs, who were 27th. Bauer has a 3.92 career ERA in August and a 4.12 mark in September. He also had a 3.25 xFIP and a 90.9 strand rate last season. The NFBC Average Draft Position of 15.2 seems lofty for Bauer, who may not regress to his 2019 levels of performance, yet he does not quite appear to truly belong among the very elite pitchers in fantasy baseball.
Keston Hiura
“He had showcased his hitting abilities throughout the minor leagues. Last year he led the National League in strikeouts, but he can improve in that regard. It’s tough to get out of a funk on a short season. You run out of time real fast to fix things. He should do better with another season of experience under his belt. Moving to first base could get in his head a little bit, but he is in the Majors for his bat. I would expect him to hit .275 with 20 homers and 95 RBI.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Hiura struck out 85 times in 217 at-bats. His O-Swing% did not change, as it was 35.0% compared to 35.1 the year before. The Swinging Strike % only rose from 17.5 to 20.3. The Launch Angle went from 16.4 to 14.3, but he actually barreled up more balls, from 12.5% to 14.2%. So there are no major reasons to believe his drop-off should be viewed as anything more than what the scout indicated, as a slump that he could just not get out of in a shortened season. There is nothing in his advanced numbers to suggest he should disappoint in a big way again. You should get an ample return for an ADP of 68.8.
Kyle Tucker
“This could be his breakout year. Nearly half of his 56 hits went for extra bases. He hit six triples in a shortened season last year. He has underrated speed. One red flag is he had better numbers against lesser pitching last year. If he improves against the better pitching teams his numbers will only increase. He looked confident last year, and with George Springer gone he will embrace a bigger offensive role. I would project him to hit .265 with 27 homers, 20 steals and 80 RBI.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Tucker hit .467 against Colorado (29th in MLB pitching in 2020) last year in 15 at-bats and .389 with 14 RBI vs. the Angels (25th) in 36 at-bats. Against the A’s, though, who had the fifth-best pitching staff in the Majors, Tucker hit .167 in 36 at-bats. The tools are all there for Tucker to excel, but he has only played in 80 MLB games so far. He may not be great for batting average and OBP, but the counting numbers will meet expectations. The ADP of 32.6 obviously reflects a lot of upside, and he is playing in a very good lineup. He can only improve against quality pitching opponents, so there are no significant reasons not to take the chance on Tucker at his current tag.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
“Like his father, he likes to expand the zone, but he is not quite as good as his pop in that regard and gets into some trouble. He needs to improve his plate discipline, but he plays in a good lineup and will benefit from that. With his drop in weight I would expect a quicker bat. If he has a little success early he could really make it roll. The beginning of the season will be a big key for him. He will strike out a lot, but he has more experience and the power numbers will be there. If his plate discipline improves, it can help his batting average and RBI. I would expect a .264 average, and he can hit 25 homers with 90 RBI. He can hammer the ball in parks such as Boston and Baltimore.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Guerrero struck out a bit less last season, and cut his O-Swing% from 31.6 to 27.4. His Hard Hit Rate leaped from 38.7 to 50.8, which was in the top seven percent of the league. His average Exit Velocity was also in the top seven percent of the league, at 92.5. He just turned 22 years old, and the BA projection here could be conservative if he does indeed get off to the good start to boost his confidence. Guerrero may be a real difference-maker this season at an ADP of 53.3.
Randy Arozarena
“He is going to be fed a bigger diet of breaking balls, as a lot of his home runs in the playoffs came on fastballs. The Rays like his stolen base game, so he can give you about 20 there. He’s going to be inconsistent. He can hit 20 homers, but won’t give you enough RBI, maybe 65-plus. The lineup is just not good around him. Pitchers may be more wary and work around him. He won’t be frequently challenged with men on base and he’s going to hit several solo shots. In high leverage situations, you have to be disciplined, but that is a formula for inconsistency for him. I would expect him to hit .250 with 20 homers, 18 steals and 65 RBI.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: The sample size is obviously short on Arozarena, but there is a lot to be said about performing well on the biggest stages of the season. He did hit just .227 vs. righties during the regular season and he had a 46.5% ground ball rate. I have to put a lot of stock in what the scout says here. The power and speed abilities are there for Arozarena, yet opposing pitchers are going to adjust to him, and we will have to see how he adjusts back. He is a risk at an ADP of 57.4, but power/speed combos are understandably enticing. I would rather get the HR/SB types earlier if I can.
Alec Bohm
“You are going to want to get him on your fantasy team. His numbers are even better with men on base. He has good knowledge of the strike zone. He has shown the ability to be tough in clutch situations, hitting .452 with runners in scoring position. He was very good down the stretch last year. I would expect him to hit .285 with 18 homers and 90 RBI.”
Alec Bohm's 2020 splits by situation, via ESPN.com
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Bohm has made a quick leap to the Majors, and he hit just .269 at Double-A in 2019. His outrageous BABIP of .410 certainly elevated his surface BA last season, and a BA of .280 would seem to be a bit optimistic considering he has only played in 44 Major League games. But as the scout pointed out, how can you overlook 18 RBI with RISP and 19 with runners on? Bohm hit .313 from the No. 3 spot in the batting order last season. He did have an xBA of .285 last season. Bohm should hit fifth this season, and while those clutch numbers are not sustainable over a full season, he will still be a very good run producer from the No. 5 hole. There is a lot to like at an ADP of 106, even with limited MLB experience so far.
Sixto Sanchez
“I am very high on him. I like what I saw from him in the playoffs. He has a very good three-pitch arsenal. The slider and changeup are right up there with the best in the game. He should have as many strikeouts as innings pitched. I project him to go 12-5 with a 3.95 ERA.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Sanchez had an xFIP of 4.08 last season, and he only had a 20.9 K%. Opponents did hit just .148 against his changeup and .217 vs. his four-seamer, but they did hit .389 vs. the slider. Sanchez did throw five shutout innings against the Cubs in the playoffs, but the Braves tagged him for four runs in three innings. Sanchez is still evolving at age 22, yet at an ADP of 133.6, he is well worth the selection for apparent upside.
Christian Yelich
“Last season was a total aberration for him. I would expect a big bounce-back year, he is just too good of a player. He fell into the trap of not having enough games to get out of a funk after a slow start in a shortened season. Sometimes it’s mental, and when you only have 30 to 40 games left after a slow start things can snowball on you. Some great players have a bad season, it happens and then they bounce back big.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Last season, Yelich’s BABIP tumbled almost 100 points to .259. That is one clear indicator of how last season has to be just what the scout says it is. A cold streak that simply had too quick of an end in sight because of the schedule. Diving into the numbers deeper is not quite needed here, as I am going to give Yelich a pass and confidently take him at the 11.2 ADP.
Triston McKenzie
“He is very thin and susceptible to injuries. He is thin as a rail. He has an explosive fastball, and a very good slider, but he needs to develop a more effective changeup. He’ll be inconsistent, a .500 pitcher. He may not be able to get through the lineup three times in some games.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: McKenzie displayed a lot of promise at times last season. He fashioned a 3.60 xFIP, and the 33.1 K% was very much on par with what we saw in the minors. He threw his four-seamer 53.1 percent of the time, yet opponents hit just .194 against it. Batters hit just .130 against the slider, which he used 20.2 percent of the time. His curve was very effective when used (16.5), for a .077 BAA. McKenzie only made it to the six-inning mark twice, though, and he was in the bullpen by the end of the season after a pair of bumpy September outings. The ADP of 192 fits, as he has shown potential, but we have already seen him miss a full season-plus and he may have been figured out quickly last season.
Jared Walsh
“He is an interesting guy. He will get the opportunity to play first base and he has advanced plate discipline. He has shown he can hit for a good average in the minors. The left-handed power is very good, he hit 36 home runs in the minors two years ago. He strikes out, but is not an all-or-nothing guy. I would expect him to hit .285 with 22 homers.”
Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Many fantasy players are attracted by Walsh’s power, yet he was a .301 hitter with a .375 OBP in the minor leagues. At Triple-A in 2019, he hit .285 with the 36 homers. The Angels may hit him in the No. 2 slot this season, which demonstrates how much confidence they have in Walsh’s ability to make an impact this season. The 13.9% K rate is certainly due to rise, but the xBA was .265 last season, and there is a heck of a lot to be intrigue here when you consider the 208.5 ADP. Where the BA finishes could be a gamble, yet for the price tag, why worry? He could certainly hit more than the 22 homers projected by the scout.
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