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Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie is a 2021 fantasy baseball draft value. His ADP is undervalued, making him a potential draft bargain and late-round sleeper to target.
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 165
CURRENT ADP: ~185 overall
ANALYSIS: Triston McKenzie was ranked as a top-100 prospect from 2017 through 2019. He missed the 2019 season due to strains of his lat and pectoral muscles, but his career 30.4 percent strikeout rate, 0.997 WHIP and 2.68 ERA over four seasons in the minors was enough to convince Cleveland to give him a shot in 2020.
Despite missing a year, McKenzie looked good in his debut campaign — going 2-1 with a 3.24 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and an 11.34 K/9. His 33.1 percent strikeout rate was also the highest among rookie pitchers with at least 30 innings, and his 12.4 percent swinging strike rate was his best mark since 2017 at High-A. The biggest concern is that his ERA might rise this year, as his 3.90 FIP and 3.60 xFIP suggest McKenzie got a little lucky at times, and batters were able to make solid contact off him to the tune of a 12 percent barrel rate and 36 percent hard-hit rate. But managers who are willing to risk his ERA going up will be rewarded by a plethora of strikeouts —especially pitching in a division with three of the top 13 teams in the league in batter strikeouts in 2020. McKenzie should be a solid No. 3 starter in almost any format.
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