RADIO
The Week 12 GPP Value brings to mind a little Hill Street Blues - let's be careful out there. Because this slate has gone from tough to ugly!
It seems that some of these NFL players should heed that advice as the number of healthy options are dropping like flies. Adam Thielen is just the most recent I've seen, but there's a good chance you'd be playing Justin Jefferson anyway. Because we're not about selecting the easy chalk picks here at Rotoballer.
And you'll see below that I will be digging deep into the bottom of the bargain barrel. An excess of mixed metaphors aside, if there are chalky plays you like better, please have at it. I am simply here to suggest some options you might not have considered beforehand.
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Here are your four Week 12 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
Week 12 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Philip Rivers vs Tennesee (DraftKings $6100, FanDuel $6800)
I really wanted to recommend Derek Carr, but couldn't do it in good conscience as I feel he will be a highly popular and chalky pick. I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirk Cousins and even Daniel Jones get surprisingly high ownership on this very ugly slate. So I'll go with someone I mentioned in my stacks article earlier this week who will see low ownership.
And I hate recommending "one L" Philip Rivers as he has made up for that with his share of ugly losses. The truth however is that he's been playing much better lately than he did to start the season:
| Yards/game | TDs | FPts/game | |
| Weeks 1-5 | 245.4 | 4 | 11.04 |
| Week 6-11 | 291.2 | 10 | 18.37 |
Rivers is wonderfully affordable this week, priced at $6100 and $6800 on the two sites. Furthermore, this matchup might be too good to avoid. The Titans are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers.
And don't forget that Rivers is coming off a very solid 288 passing yards and three TD day against the Packers last week. He has three 300+ yard games already this year. The Titans have also given up three 300+ passing yard performances already this year and that includes such notable offenses as Chicago and Jacksonville. The Colts' offense might not be much better than either of those two, but Rivers could be a very sneaky play this week.
Week 12 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
Brian Hill vs Raiders (DraftKings $4000, FanDuel $5100)
Todd Gurley is not expected to play on Sunday. However, I think Hill does enough to match his $5100 price tag and far exceeds his minimum $4K price tag on DraftKings. For one, the Falcons are a high scoring offense. Gurley has 43 red-zone carries, behind only Derrick Henry. But if Gurley is out, Hill should get those red-zone carries. Furthermore, Gruden's boys have been scored upon every 16.5 carries and have given up the third-most fantasy points per opportunity to RBs, making this a golden matchup for the Atlanta running game. If Hill sees double-digit carries, he should easily outproduce his price tag.
It is also worth noting that Hill out-snapped Gurley in last week's blowout loss, so even if there is a negative game script, Hill could provide value. And given that this game has an over/under set at 53 points, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities and I like the chances of Hill punching one into the endzone.
Editor's Note: Toddy Gurley has in fact been ruled out.
Week 12 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Collin Johnson at Cleveland Browns (DraftKings $3000, FanDuel $4600)
To call Johnson a boom-or-bust option is an insult to that expression. But just pesos above the minimum price, he does provide huge profit potential at a likely minimal ownership rate.
For one, most want nothing to do with the Jacksonville passing game, especially if it does not include DJ Chark. But Chark has been ruled out for this game, along with the next WR up Chris Conley.
#Jaguars out for Sunday are G Norwell, WR Chark, WR Conley, and CB Jones.
— Eugene Frenette (@GeneFrenette) November 27, 2020
Laviska Shenault might not play either, which suddenly thrusts Collin Johnson into Jacksonville's WR2 slot. Johnson has always had the skill set to be a top WR, but it's his durability that has been a question. He has great hands (only 11 drops amongst his 306 career targets while at the University of Texas) and a big-bodied frame that makes him a great red-zone target. He's seen limited action this year, but in the one game that he played and saw more than three targets he did score.
The Browns secondary has given up the tenth most WR fantasy points, due in part to the 41 red-zone targets they've faced, the most in the league by a large margin as not a single other team has even seen 35. The Jags passing game, especially with Glennon under center, is extremely risky, but I will have a few shares of Johnson as I do expect him to score and see double-digit fantasy points, making him an incredible value play at WR.
Week 12 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Jonnu Smith at Indianapolis (DraftKings $4100, FanDuel $6000)
Jonnu Smith is back to being a top-five tight end in fantasy football, so the low salary on him immediately jumps out. What might seem like a head-scratcher suddenly makes sense when you realize he hasn't exceeded more than 32 receiving yards since Week 5. However, he has scored three touchdowns over the last three weeks, making him a high risk/high reward option. Or a perfect GPP week 12 value option!
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