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Andrew Lalama uses predictive analysis to rank NFL pass defense and run defense units in order to help fantasy football managers make weekly lineup decisions based on matchups.
With two weeks of data we can start to see which defenses the Predictive Defensive Matchup Chart may have underrated. Keep in mind that two games is a small sample size, so adding in preseason predictive data should help give a more complete picture. Below is the updated chart including Week 3 opponents.
There are many ways to measure "pass defense" and "run defense." These rankings are for fantasy purposes only. The more green you see, the easier the matchup.
The "20 P Proj" column is projected pass defense, which was formulated through personnel ratings, coaching tendencies, and 2019 statistics. 32nd-ranked is the worst, so it's green for the offense. The "20 PA" column is QB fantasy points against. 32nd-ranked is the toughest, so it's red for the offense. The "20 R Proj" column is projected run defense and "20 RA" is RB fantasy points against.
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Updated Pass Defense Rankings for 2020
The model projected the Atlanta pass defense to be the worst in the NFL and after two weeks they've been just that. Keep streaming QBs against the Falcons and their anemic pass rush.
Seattle's pass rush has been unbelievably terrible and they just lost Bruce Irvin for the season. Everyone wanted to Let Russ Cook, and the quicker the pace, the more the Seahawks pass defense will be exposed.
Similarly, Miami doesn't have much of a pass rush and will likely be missing stud corner Byron Jones this week. Fire up Gardner Minshew on Thursday night.
The Los Angeles Chargers 2020 ranking is skewed by the greatness of Patrick Mahomes and the fact that their game went into overtime. Their pass defense personnel is top-notch.
It looks like Baltimore and Chicago will be tough matchups for QBs going forward. Be careful with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh as well. Both teams have solid defensive back groups.
Cincinnati and Carolina are the two worst run defenses in the league, so I don't think their stingy ranking against QBs is evidence that they have a good pass defense. I do expect teams to continue to pound the rock against them, so they may not be the best teams to attack with streamers.
Updated Run Defense Rankings for 2020
Carolina and Cincinnati are by far the two worst run defenses in the NFL. It's good news for Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley, and Miles Sanders in Week 3.
The model has been accurate in regards to Detroit and Arizona, so look for Kenyan Drake, Chase Edmonds, and the Lions RBs to put up some points this week.
The model predicted that Houston would be poorer against the pass than the run. It looks like they may be a bottom-five run defense based on the first two weeks of the season. James Conner could have a big game this week.
Tampa Bay has been a much easier matchup against RBs than they were last year, but part of that is skewed by facing Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey in the first two weeks. It will be interesting to see how Melvin Gordon does this week, especially without Drew Lock.
Jacksonville did a great job against Derrick Henry in Week 2 and stuffed the rushing attack of Indianapolis in Week 1. Their ranking would be a lot tougher if they didn't give up so many receptions to Colts RBs.
Finally, the key matchup of the week is Clyde Edwards-Helaire taking on Calais Campbell and the stingy Baltimore run defense. CEH was involved more in the passing game in Week 2 and may need to make his impact as a receiver on Monday night. The Ravens Defense is unforgiving.
Thanks for reading and good luck this week.
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