Exploiting Defensive Matchups with Predictive Analysis - Week 2

Andrew Lalama uses predictive analysis to rank NFL pass defense and run defense units in order to help fantasy football managers make weekly lineup decisions based on matchups.

Week 1 is in the books and we have new data to add to preseason predictive analysis.  A reader asked me if we can expect this chart to be updated every week.  The plan is to update the chart for at least the first five weeks of the regular season.  By Week 6, five games of 2020 data will render the preseason predictive data irrelevant.

There are many ways to measure "pass defense" and "run defense."  These rankings are for fantasy purposes only.  The more green you see, the easier the matchup.

The "20 P Proj" column is projected pass defense, which was formulated through personnel ratings, coaching tendencies, and 2019 statistics.  32nd-ranked is the worst, so it's green for the offense.  The "20 PA" column is QB fantasy points against.  32nd-ranked is the toughest, so it's red for the offense.  The "20 R Proj" column is projected run defense and "20 RA" is RB fantasy points against.

Updated Pass Defense Rankings for 2020

The model projected Atlanta would be the worst pass defense in the NFL and in Week 1 they were just that. The model also suggested targeting both New York teams and the Browns. Cleveland simply doesn't have the defensive backs to cover WR2s and slot receivers.

Two of the most surprising Week 1 performances were by the San Francisco and Minnesota pass defenses. Aaron Rodgers carved up Minnesota, but they should be an easy matchup without Danielle Hunter and with arguably the worst cornerback group in the league. San Francisco gave up a lot of rushing production to Kyler Murray which is reflected in this chart. Their ranking may be misleading. However, keep an eye on the 49ers possibly regressing in the secondary.

As far as tough matchups go, it looks like Baltimore and New England will be a headache for passers again this year. Buffalo feasted on a weak Jets passing attack, but they should remain solid as well.  A team to watch out for is Cincinnati. They have decent personnel and their Week 1 performance was encouraging, even if it was against Tyrod Taylor.

The model may have underrated the Dallas secondary personnel after losing Byron Jones. Aldon Smith was also basically unaccounted for. They could be a tougher matchup than we thought.

Updated Run Defense Rankings for 2020

Arizona's ranking here may be misleading due to the long TD reception they gave up to Raheem Mostert and playing the 49ers without their two best WRs. Still, it's a reminder that they don't have many plus run defenders.

It looks like Carolina will be atrocious against the run again this year. Target the Panthers with RBs.

Jacksonville's ranking is so poor in large part due to Philip Rivers throwing so many passes to his RBs. Still, the model was accurate at the top in Week 1.

Dallas lost Leighton Vander Esch due to injury and has some lighter players along the defensive line. It's looking like they will be a stiffer pass defense than run defense.

Tampa Bay had to deal with the hyper-efficient Saints running game in a blowout. They will be better going forward.

Miami's ranking doesn't tell the whole story as they were gashed by Cam Newton rather than Patriots RBs. The model predicts they will struggle more going forward.

Finally, it's looking like you want to stay away from New Orleans, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh when considering RBs. All three have personnel and coaching tendencies that make them top-end run defenses.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis