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Andrew Lalama uses predictive analysis to rank NFL pass defense and run defense units in order to help fantasy football managers make weekly lineup decisions based on matchup.
The NFL season is underway, but fantasy managers still have decisions to make about their Week 1 lineups. There are many tools to help managers make start/sit decisions, and matchups are a key factor. Generally, you want to target bad defenses. You obviously want to start QBs, WRs, and TEs against poor pass defenses and RBs against poor run defenses. The challenge for Week 1 is that the only matchup data we have is based solely on 2019 numbers. Until now.
The following charts are predictors of the pass and run defenses of each NFL team in 2020. The rankings are based on the following factors:
- Defensive personnel ratings.
- Coaching statistics and tendencies from the defensive play-caller's last four seasons.
- 2019 statistics.
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Projected Pass Defense Rankings for 2020
The model predicts Atlanta will have the worst pass defense in the league this season. They project to have an anemic pass rush and subpar secondary.
Arizona has just one legitimate pass rusher and burnable defensive backs. They'll also speed up the tempo on offense and play a high number of snaps on defense as a result.
The New York Giants lost DeAndre Baker but added a couple of previously solid veteran corners in Logan Ryan and James Bradberry. Their front-seven personnel is much better suited to stop the run rather than rush the passer. The model does not like DC Patrick Graham's chances of success after coordinating the exploitable 2019 Dolphins Defense.
Cleveland's low ranking is surprising but with Greedy Williams injured and Myles Garrett suspended, slot receivers and WR2s should feast early.
On the other end of the spectrum, both San Francisco and Pittsburgh have terrific secondaries and strong pass rushers. I would also much rather attack Baltimore's defense on the ground than through the air. The same goes for Green Bay.
Projected Run Defense Rankings for 2020
Jacksonville is projected to be the best matchup for RBs. They don't have run-stuffers along the defensive line and DC Todd Wash's defenses have consistently done better against the pass.
Miami upgraded their secondary but the front seven is an obvious weakness. The addition of Raekwon Davis could be a factor down the line, but for now they should be targeted.
Cincinnati added D.J. Reader to help sure up their run defense, but the linebackers are still weak and the model puts a lot of weight on DC Lou Anarumo's poor 2019 performance.
The New York Jets were the second-worst matchup for RBs last year but are projected to be 12th-worst this year. The losses of Jamal Adams and Leonard Williams are baked into the ranking.
As for the toughest matchups, it won't be easy to run on Tampa Bay this season. Vita Vea is an elite run-stuffer, both off-ball linebackers are solid and Ndamukong Suh is still strong at the point of attack.
Finally, both Indianapolis DC Matt Eburflus and Philadelphia DC Jim Schwartz prioritize stopping the run before the pass. The model would advise against starting borderline RB options against Indy and Philly.
Thanks for reading and good luck this season.
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