RADIO
Frank Dyevoich explains why Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman is an undervalued draft sleeper and potential breakout WR for 2020 fantasy football.
Finding the next breakout player in fantasy football is not always an easy task. If it were, we would all be winning more championships. However, sometimes a player jumps off the screen and the analytics jump off the page, making it a little easier.
Kansas City Chiefs sophomore wide receiver Mecole Hardman is such a player. His speed on film is game-breaking and his analytics in both athleticism and production from his rookie year are jaw-dropping. He was always wide open and is as dynamic and versatile as they come.
Another year in Andy Reid's system can only mean more opportunities for a player of Hardman's caliber, and fantasy players are going to wish he was on their team in 2020.
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College Career
Hardman was highly sought after coming out of high school, where he was an All-American cornerback and the 2015 State of Georgia Offensive Player of the year as a quarterback. He was ranked as ESPN's number two athlete in the country and chose to remain in his home state and become a Georgia Bulldog. As a freshman, Hardman played cornerback and special teams where he impressed his coaches with his elite athleticism. The team decided to give him a shot at wide receiver in his sophomore year and the speed demon turned 25 receptions into 418 yards (16.7 yards per reception) and four touchdowns. He also showcased his versatility and added eight carries for another two touchdowns.
When the season was over, he ran the lead-off leg in the 4x100-meter-relay for the Georgia Track and Field team. In his last season, Hardman showed ridiculous efficiency with seven touchdowns on only 35 receptions. For comparison's sake, Julio Jones had seven touchdowns on 78 receptions in his final year of college. Hardman's numbers coming out of college were nothing to write home about, but his breakaway speed and versatility on offense jumped off the screen to NFL scouts.
UGA's Mecole Hardman (@MecoleHardman4) has limited college production, but he's a freakshow athletically and has a TON of potential at the next level, IMO.
I'm a big, big fan. pic.twitter.com/cIyuo3VgYY
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) March 29, 2019
Unreal Athleticism
Hardman was impressive with his minimal touches at Georgia, but he put himself on the map during the NFL Combine and his Pro Day. At the Combine, the Bulldog ran the 40-yard dash in a blazing 4.33 seconds (99th percentile) and leaped an admirable 36.5 inches in the vertical jump and 116 inches in the broad jump. Then, at his Pro Day, Hardman performed the three-cone drill in an impressive 6.75 seconds, which showcases a prospect's agility, quickness, and change of direction skills.
It became clear to NFL scouts that if a team was looking to add an explosive player with incredible speed to their roster, Mecole Hardman out of the University of Georgia was the answer. As it turned out, the Kansas City Chiefs were looking for exactly that type of player due to the off-field domestic violence allegations made against Tyreek Hill.
Tyreek Hill 2.0?
With their second-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Chiefs selected Hardman, an exact replica of Tyreek Hill, on the off chance that the team may have to replace him. The comparisons between Hardman and Hill are downright freaky. Hardman is 5'10" and 187 lbs, and Hill is 5'10" and 185 lbs. Hill played wide receiver, running back, and kick returner at Oklahoma State and the University of West Alabama and Hardman played the same positions at Georgia. The similarities continue with their speed, as Hardman ran the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the NFL Combine and Hill ran an unofficial 4.29 at his Pro Day.
The two receivers also had similar production in their first NFL season. Hill finished his rookie year with 61 receptions for 591 yards and six touchdowns, and added 267 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, and another two touchdowns in the return game. Hardman only had 26 receptions, but he turned them into 538 yards and six touchdowns, and he added another touchdown in the return game. Hopefully, the similarities continue because once the Chiefs saw how explosive Hill was, they made him a focal point of the offense and he has produced as an elite WR1 ever since.
A few minutes ago, Tyreek Hill posted on his Instagram account his 40-yard dash victory over Mecole Hardman during training camp. https://t.co/cgRnKONFhx pic.twitter.com/Qc28a9fEQk
— Nate Taylor (@ByNateTaylor) August 8, 2020
Impressive Rookie Campaign
Last season, Hardman showed the Chiefs and the fantasy football community that he can be an explosive weapon capable of breaking any game wide open. Despite his lack of targets, the former Bulldog proved to be one of the best deep-threat receivers in the game. He finished first out of all receivers in yards per reception (20.7), yards per target (13.1, an NFL record for a rookie), fantasy points per target (2.77), and fantasy points per touch (3.48).
He also made life for quarterback Patrick Mahomes even easier than it normally was by finishing third in target separation (2.02), which means whenever he was targeted there was on average at least two yards in between Hardman and the nearest defender. Even Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen could hit that window! Not surprisingly, Mahomes had a Quarterback Rating of 153.9 when targeting Hardman, which was also first out of all receivers, and 19.5 QBR points higher than number two (Marquise Brown).
As impressive as all that is, there is one statistic that jumps out when projecting Hardman for a breakout second season: target premium. Playerprofiler.com defines target premium as " the percentage of additional fantasy points per target that a wide receiver or tight end generates over and above the other pass receivers on his team." Hardman also finished first in target premium with +51.6%, meaning he averaged 51.6% more fantasy points than Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Sammy Watkins each time they were targeted. Combine his efficiency with a natural bump in both snaps and targets in year two, and we could be looking at a fantasy star in the making.
Most PPR fantasy points per touch (WRs) in 2019:
? Mecole Hardman - 3.48
? A.J. Brown - 3.47
? Kenny Golladay - 3.45 pic.twitter.com/wEHwe4uVO9— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 11, 2020
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Hardman should have his way with cornerbacks in 2020 for the simple fact that he will be facing opposing defense's third or fourth best defenders due to the overwhelming talent on the Chiefs offense. Opponents are going to focus all of their attention on rushing the passer and line up their best defenders in coverage on Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. That leaves Hardman to use his elite athleticism and speed to routinely burn the cornerbacks covering him.
While the majority of the targets in Kansas City are going to go to tight end Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, there are still plenty of targets to go around. Last season, Kelce had 24% of the Chiefs targets, and Hill and Watkins each had 16%. However, Hill would have had around 24% as well if he played a full 16 games. That leaves roughly 50% of the Chief's targets still up for grabs between Watkins, Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, the running backs, and the depth receivers. The writing is on the wall for Hardman to rise to the top.
It is not easy for a rookie to earn valuable playing time on a team with a bunch of superstars, and it is even more difficult when said team runs a complex offense. Hardman had to deal with both of those obstacles in 2019, but he should enter 2020 with a firm grasp of Andy Reid's master plan. Last season, Robinson had a 70% snap share and Hardman had a 45% snap share, mainly due to his inexperience with the offense, but those numbers should flip-flop this season because Hardman's talent and efficiency are undeniable. Sammy Watkins will operate as the WR2 early on since the team restructured his contract, but it is his last season on his restructured deal, so Hardman could see his role increase even further as the season goes on. He has already been impressing in training camp and appears ready to take the next step.
My biggest positive surprises in camp:
1) Mecole Hardman looks WAY more polished as a receiver than expected. He’s going to help this team.
2) Tanoh’s emergence & the overall depth of the defensive line. It’s the clear strength of the D.
3) Mahomes & Tyreek somehow look better. https://t.co/AcCBJ5BOAb— Brandon Kiley (@BKSportsTalk) August 5, 2019
Even with Watkins on the field, Hardman should operate as the full-time slot wide receiver for the Chiefs in three-wide sets since he played in the slot on 83% of his snaps last season. Did you know that all six of his receiving touchdowns came in the slot? More time in the slot means more fantasy points for his fantasy GMs. Hardman finished second only to Michael Thomas in slot receiving yards per route run with 2.7, which not only portrays his incredible efficiency, it shows that Mahomes loved to look his way when he got on the field.
Most slot receiving yards per route in 2019:
1. Michael Thomas - 3.4
2. Mecole Hardman - 2.7
3. Robert Woods - 2.6
4. Davante Adams - 2.3 pic.twitter.com/8DkOYOu9wd— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 9, 2020
All of this sounds great but don't get overly optimistic and draft him in the seventh round expecting 90 receptions and a top-15 finish, because that is not going to happen. However, 60 receptions is certainly in his range of outcomes, which would put him at 1,242 yards and 14 touchdowns if he replicated his league-leading 20.7 yards per reception and 23% touchdown rate. Let's be honest, he is not going to do that, but the point is that with an expected increase in snaps and targets, Hardman could find himself flirting with WR3 production, which makes his current ADP of WR44 very juicy.
Further, his versatility and explosiveness will likely lead to a bunch of screens, end-arounds, and jet sweeps for Hardman as Andy Reid tries to manufacture touches for him. Lastly, if Hill or Watkins were to get injured, Hardman would be an every-down player and could win championships. Sounds like a player you definitely want on your fantasy teams.
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