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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/19/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
LG wasted no time jumping out to a 2-0 lead in their first at-bat, only for Tyler Wilson to give up two runs over the next handful of innings to drop the F5 runline. Tough draw there typically when a team can plate two runs in the first inning, they won't wait five innings to get back on the board. Dan Straily is completely dominating the KBO and his 12 strikeouts Thursday are proof. He silenced Kiwoom and their starter did the same to Lotte so the under hit easily.
- Thursday, June 18: 1-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 58-31-1 (64.4%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Thursday, June 19th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Hanwha Eagles at NC Dinos (-400)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
Hanwha: Bum-soo Kim (1-3, 4.34 ERA; Making first start of 2020)
NC: Chang-mo Koo (5-0, 0.75 ERA)
Bum-soo Kim gets a shot to start after making 16 relief appearances so far in 2020 and the results have been mixed. He's given up an earned run in seven of his outings, while scattering a hit in 10 of them. His last two relief appearances were both at least 2.1 innings and he gave up a combined three runs on six hits. His 18 BB% is abysmal considering he's only faced 87 hitters, but he does have a 19.5 K%, so he does carry some upside. He did make 16 starts a year ago, including one against NC where he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings.
Is it possible the Dinos are mere mortals? Losers of five of the last eight, NC gets to return home following Thursday rain out. They also get to play the worst team in the league, so despite NC's recent misfortunes...this could get ugly. Before you even mention anything about the lineup, all you need to see is that Chang-mo Koo is pitching; he's the best pitcher in the entire league and has given up just four earned runs in 48 innings.
NC averages just over six runs a game and hits at a .314 clip when at home. They're healthy, for the most part, and guys like Aaron Altherr and Sung-bum Na haven't had any issues at the plate of late. For a team that was winning at the rate NC was, a minor blip is to be expected, but you should expect them to get back on track just as fast. Despite their losing record over the last three series, NC has still scored the most runs (68) in the L10.
In the six games that these two have played against each other, NC has scored more than six runs four times, including each of the last three where they scored over 10. With the key pieces available in the lineup, getting Koo some run support should happen early and often, especially against a pitcher who has struggled this year out of the bullpen and is now being asked to start.
Pick(s): NC Team Total Over 6.5 (-108, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Doosan Bears at LG Twins (-136)
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Young-ha Lee (1-3, 5.22 ERA)
LG: Woo-chan Cha (4-2, 4.05 ERA)
Doosan has had some struggles themselves over the L10, going 4-6 and dropping series' against Hanwha and Samsung. One might think that because Doosan is back on the road, where they score 7.14 rpg, things will be looking up. Au contraire! They might be the road team, but we can't forget that Doosan and LG play at the same Jamsil Stadium. As hosts, they average just 4.5 rpg and have only been slightly better over their L6 home games, scoring 4.6 rpg. This is something we can only expect to experience in the KBO, and though Doosan's offense is dangerous, their struggles at Jamsil are well documented.
Young-ha Lee has had a few blow-up starts so far, including his last time out when he gave up seven over 5.2 innings to NC. For a guy who was 27-7 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over the last two seasons, something isn't right here. However, his 4.41 FIP is almost a point lower than his ERA, hinting positive regression on the way. His BB% is four points higher than his 2019 mark of 8.8, meanwhile his .346 BABIP against and 63 % strand rate are also very far off his numbers from a season ago. He's faced LG once already this year, holding them to just two runs (one earned) on five hits over 6.1 innings.
LG is probably the hottest team over the last two weeks, going 8-2 with a +24 run differential. They welcomed back Roberto Ramos from injury on Thursday so they have every reason to be excited for this series. They're hitting .281 at home as a team and score just over five runs a game in Jamsil, so certainly not terrible numbers, but both are better when they're on the road, similar to their counterparts. Ji-hwan Oh, Hyun-soo Kim, and Kang-nam Yoo carried the Twins through the Hanwha series so now that Ramos is back, we could expect them to continue producing.
The southpaw Woo-chan Cha has been as steady as they come in the KBO and for a 33-year-old, he should be considered one of the better veteran arms in the league. He gave up three to Lotte his last time out but held Kiwoom scoreless over seven frames on June 7. Although, his command has been a mild issue, giving up 10 walks in his last two outings but he's done a fantastic job stranding runners at an 80% rate. One real cause for concern is that he's served up a home run in six of his seven starts and five of those were at home.
Thanks to my Twitter friend @theMNDegen, he put into table form the comparison between these two team when they play at Jamsil Stadium and to no surprise, games at this stadium are oddly similar, except that in LG's home games, there are more than double the home runs hit. Regardless, I'm looking at Doosan's struggles in Jamsil Stadium and LG's lineup really coming together at the right time + having a substantially better bullpen. Both of these pitchers are due to outperform their numbers at some point and I'm looking for a low-scoring game here with LG to continue their win streak.
Pick(s): Under 10 (-107, Draftkings Sportsbook) and LG ML -136 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
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