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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/4/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Wednesday was another day where money was made and you can't complain about that. NC dropping five runs in the first inning was a great way tot start the day, their team over eventually cashed in the fourth. Meanwhile, Samsung and LG were going toe-to-toe early before the Lions pulled away in a high-scoring affair. They're certainly a team we'll need to watch out for down the road. Then leave it to Hanwha to damper the mood as Warwick Saupold got mashed and we couldn't complete the sweep. But...green is green!
- Wednesday, June 3: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 47-17
For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Yes, I've had success but I'm not getting out of my means for that exact reason. This is still such a new league to all of us and we need to make sure we look at value not just dollar signs.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Thursday, June 4th at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Lotte Giants at Kia Tigers (-240)
O/U: 8.5
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Kyung-eun Noh (1-1, 5.57 ERA)
Kia: Aaron Brooks (1-2, 3.23 ERA)
Lotte stinks. After starting the year winning five straight, they have just three wins in their last 10 games and have won one since May 27. Their 38 runs in the L10 are the second feset in the league, ahead of only the Hanwha Eagles who are on a 10-game skid. It's hard to highlight individual players when the team in hitting .244 with a .687 OPS and a .231 average w/RISP.
Kyung-eun Noh has had a nice long career at 36 years old. However, there's not much to write home about. A career 5.14 ERA with a 1.54 WHIP is extra scary, considering he's flipped between the bullpen and rotation almost every other year in the last decade. His best start this season came in a six inning shut out of Hanwha but in his last time out, he allowed three runs to Doosan at their place and took the L. He's an aging arm with below average numbers...yuck.
Kia's bats seem to be on the uptick following a stretch where they lost three of four. On Wednesday, the Tigers saw steady, consistent production, especially in the seven-run fifth inning. Preston Tucker slugged his seventh homer, a three-run shot, while three others had a pair of RBI as well.
Former Oriole and Athletic Aaron Brooks is a solid arm who has handled moving to the KBO quite well. Through 30.2 innings (five starts), he's surrendered just 11 earned runs on 33 hits with a 26/5 K/BB. Sure he only has one win, but his first two starts he only allowed one run in each and earned a no decision. Brooks is showing to be not only one of the better foreign arms in Korea, but one of the better starters period.
Kia has the advantage on offense and on the bump. We can't forget that they already swept the Giants once at home earlier in May, so taking this game down in solid fashion is not out of the question.
Pick: Kia -1.5 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
Doosan Bears (-190) at KT Wiz
O/U: 11.5
Probable Pitchers
Doosan: Raul Alcantara (4-1, 3.90 ERA)
KT: Min Kim (2-1, 5.23 ERA)
Doosan brings Raul Alcantara to the bump Thursday. The 27-year-old has been overshadowed by Chris Flexen a bit and that's not completely unwarranted. The former Oakland A has allowed just 13 earned runs in 30 innings with a 23/6 K/BB but theres some underlying numbers that are a cause for concern. A 4.73 FIP hints that the 3.90 ERA has some regression room, while his .309 average is almost 40 points higher than last year. He's done a great job stranding runners at a near 80% clip, but that's not sustainable and is due to drop down to the 71% mark he had last season.
The KT Wiz jumped out to an early lead Thursday and didn't look back. They got great starting pitching too and while the bullpen is always a cause for concern, it was a solid bounce-back effort. Mel Rojas Jr. continues to mash, hitting four homers with 11 RBI in the last three games. Veteran Jae-Gyun Hwang is starting a nice hot streak himself, while Jeong-dae Bae has hit safely in nine of his last 10 and is batting .375 with five doubles, a homer, and six RBI in the top half of the lineup. The Wiz have a great offense they're one of my favorite teams to follow so far.
Sure, Alcantara has been solid to start this year but those underlying numbers tell me he is set for some regression. It will come here and KT's hard-hitting lineup will be there to take advantage. Even if he's able to hold back the Wiz a bit, their Doosan bullpen carries a 7.36 ERA. Also a weird trend to note is that in nine of KT's last 11 home games, they've scored five or more runs.
Pick: KT Team Total o4.5 (-111; FoxBet)
Samsung Lions at LG Twins (-159)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: Jung-hyun Baek (0-2, 7.20 ERA)
LG: Chan-heon Jeong (1-1, 5.06 ERA)
It only took the Samsung Lions a few weeks to get it together but they seem to have finally arrived. Winning seven of their last 10, the Lions' lineup is getting boosts from guys like Tyler Saladino, and of course Won-seok Lee who had eight RBI himself on Wednesday. However, guys like Chan-do Park and Dong-yub Kim will continue to get more RBI opportunities. Samsung is one of the more patient teams in the league with 92 walks, so if they stay patient and work pitchers, they'll eventually be able to put that .315 average w/RISP to use.
Lefty Jung-hyun Baek (calf) is making his return to the rotation following a stint on the injured list. Before the injury, he was pretty bad, serving up five home run in just two starts (10 innings) but one would expect him to be back to 100% now. The southpaw was certainly serviceable a year ago, going 8-10 with a 4.24 ERA. His 12 K% and 8 BB% could definitely be better, but his .273 BABIP against shows he just does a good job drawing soft contact. He made six starts against LG last year and allowed 2.8 runs per start.
LG is still second in the KBO standings but they've been stunned a bit by Samsung, already dropping the series and now looking to avoid a sweep. They record 14 hits and scored six Wednesday after being blanked the day before. Roberto Ramos has been quiet but Eun-seong Chae and Hyun-soo Kim continue to produce at the plate. This lineup is still hitting .292 with a .821 OPS while scoring 148 runs, thanks in part to a .329 average w/RISP. While they have struggled a bit with lefties, they faced a southpaw on Wednesday and still had eight hits and three runs.
Chan-heong Jeong will be making his fourth career start after spending the first 10 years of his career in the bullpen. This is odd, as he had some success in that role, like when he saved 27 games in 2018. Yet here we are. Through 16 innings in 2020, he's allowed 19 hits, nine runs, and three home runs. His 14/4 K/BB is about average with most starters in the league and his .356 BABIP against seems high, except that his career BABIP .325 isn't much better.
Samsung is still trying to prove some people wrong and their offense has been much improved. Meanwhile LG is trying not to get swept. The pitching matchup is great for both lineups, as both starters are still in situations where they need to stretch their arms out. I look for offense early and often. In terms of trends, Samsung has had the over hit six times in 11 road games, while the total has gone over in eight of LG's 14 home games.
Pick: Over 10.5
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