RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! With the end of the NFL regular season, there aren't any season-long league concerns left for us fantasy gamers. That makes the Divisional Round of the playoffs a perfect time to focus on making some DFS lineups. With eight teams in action on the Saturday/Sunday slate, this is the perfect-sized player pool to choose from and the most teams we will see on a single slate until the 2020 season kicks off. The Texans/Chiefs game has the highest over/under, set at 51.5 points. Seattle/Green Bay and Tennessee/Baltimore are in a similar spot, coming in at 47.0 and 46.5 points, respectively. The San Francisco/Minnesota game comes in with the lowest over/under at 44.0 points. It is an interesting week as most of the ownership should be on the passing games of the Ravens and the Chiefs. Also, the majority of the defenses left playing are much stronger against the pass than they are against the run, so there aren't many passing offenses in smash spots this weekend.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Divisional Round DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by my preference. This article will center on games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans
- QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,500 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
- WR Tyreek Hill ($7,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- TE Travis Kelce ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
While I like the upside of Lamar Jackson, I prefer to play him by himself as Baltimore's offense just doesn't pass the ball enough and he accrues so much fantasy value on the ground. If looking to deploy an expensive stack I would lean toward the Chiefs, who are playing at home against a weak Houston pass defense. The Texans ranked just 26th in pass defense DVOA during the regular season and represent a fantastic matchup for an explosive Kansas City passing attack. Patrick Mahomes was unable to replicate his dominant 2018 season but much of the blame lies on his mid-season knee injury and a brutal stretch of opposing pass defenses. The Chiefs are 9.5-point home favorites with a 30.25-point implied team total, so look for there to be plenty of fireworks.
Pairing Mahomes with Tyreek Hill is a no-brainer as the speedy Hill has slate-breaking upside whenever he takes the field. Hill will see primary coverage from Houston right corner Gareon Conley, who was jettisoned by the Raiders midseason and allowed 0.37 fantasy points per route covered in 2019. This is a massive mismatch in favor of Hill. If you are planning on rolling out multiple stacks focused around the Chiefs, I would also consider swapping in rookie Mecole Hardman in place of Hill at least once. Hardman will be considerably lower-owned than Hill and has similar big-play ability. He doesn't get targeted as frequently as Hill, which makes him a riskier play in DFS contests but he's worth a look in a diminished player pool.
Travis Kelce is also worth considering in a three-man stack with Mahomes. Kelce finished the 2019 season as the top-scoring tight end and will take on a Houston defense that allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. He doesn't have the massive upside that Hill does but he has the potential to score along the lines of a WR1 but with a much lower price tag.
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers
- QB Russell Wilson ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- WR D.K. Metcalf ($6,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- WR Tyler Lockett ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel)
Russell Wilson had a quiet afternoon in his team's Wild Card win over the Philadelphia Eagles. This offense has not had a big performance for a while and the matchup at Green Bay is not ideal as the Pack has been solid against opposing passing games. That being said, Wilson is one of the most dominant quarterbacks in the league and he should drop back to pass a significant amount with his backfield down to only 33-year-old Marshawn Lynch and unproven rookie Travis Homer. The Packers were stingy against enemy QBs this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position but Wilson's dual-threat ability should help offset those issues. The Seahawks have a decent 21.5-point implied team total as four-point road dogs.
Rookie D.K. Metcalf turned in a dominant outing in his team's 17-9 Wild Card win over the Eagles, roasting the Philly secondary for seven catches, 160 yards, and a score. It isn't point chasing to go back to Metcalf again in the Divisional Round as he draws the best matchup of the Seattle pass catchers against a tough Green Bay secondary. Metcalf will run the majority of his routes against left corner Kevin King, who allowed 0.36 fantasy points per route covered and earned a 62.3 grade from Pro Football Focus, both the worst grades out of Green Bay's three starting corners.
Tyler Lockett had a quality performance against the Eagles in the Wild Card game, going for 62 yards on four catches. He does draw a tough matchup against Green Bay slot corner Tramon Williams, who finished as the team's top-graded cornerback according to Pro Football Focus during the regular season. That being said, Lockett should lead the Seahawks in a game where Seattle should need to pass frequently, making him a quality third stacking option after Metcalf. Lockett's uneven play paired with a more difficult matchup leaves him as more of a tournament option and not a must-play this weekend.
Under-Owned Divisional Round DFS Stack
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel)
- TE George Kittle ($6,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
- WR Deebo Samuel ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
Look for the 49ers to go overlooked this weekend, despite them having a quality passing attack during the regular season. The Vikings finished the season ranked seventh overall in pass defense DVOA but they can be attacked through the air, especially by throwing at Xavier Rhodes. San Francisco likes to run frequently but Minnesota is also very capable of shutting down the running game, posting a run defense that ranked ninth in DVOA in 2019. If the 49ers can't get the running game going that could force more work onto Jimmy G's plate this weekend.
George Kittle is Garoppolo's favorite target in the passing game and that should remain the case in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. The Vikings were solid against the position during the regular season as they allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position, helped by only allowing one tight end touchdown all year long. That being said, they did have some issues against the top tight ends, serving up lines of 13 catches for 134 yards to Darren Waller, six catches for 42 yards to Evan Engram, a combined nine catches for 102 yards to the Zach Ertz/Dallas Goedert combo, and seven catches for 62 yards to Travis Kelce.
I am leaning toward filling out a three-man 49ers stack with Deebo Samuel over Emmanuel Sanders. Samuel should see primary coverage from Xavier Rhodes, who is no longer the shutdown force that he was just a few years ago. Rhodes earned just a 46.5 grade from PFF and should struggle to limit Samuel this weekend.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!
