Luke Voit (1B, NYY) - Fantasy Baseball Draft Sleepers

BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 180

CURRENT ADP: ~200 overall

ANALYSIS: A key part of Luke Voit's potential success in New York could likely come down to opportunity. There is not a huge amount of competition for the first base job in the organization and that should mean Voit is given every opportunity in 2019. Voit's success last year was in sharp contrast to his 2017 rookie efforts with the Cardinals. In 2017, Voit hit .246 with just four home runs, 18 runs and 18 RBI in 124 plate appearances. Last year, he went .322 with 15 home runs, 30 runs and 26 RBI in just 161 PA. The power we saw last year is beyond anything we have seen from Voit in his career prior. Therefore, the question is can he repeat it next year?

His wOBA (.447) and ISO (.350) were by far the highest of his career. His previous highest wOBA and ISO when playing significant time were .419 and .238 respectively. Those are both numbers that are primed for some regression this season and mean that it is unlikely he maintains the 45 home run pace he ended the season on. If he maintains his six percent increase in hard-hit rate, he has every opportunity of putting up 30 or more home runs.

The Yankees offense could be in line for a big year in 2019, and Voit could be a regular member of that lineup. Voit is currently going as the 19th first baseman off the board but the potential return he could provide makes him well worth a late-round flier in all leagues. The good news is that he does not need to hit 45 home runs to be a value pick at his current NFBC ADP of 198.10. Even hitting at the bottom of this Yankees lineup he should have the opportunity to put up solid numbers. If he can get in the region of 80 runs and RBI, then 30 home runs and a batting average in the .280 region would return solid value on the draft capital required to get him.