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Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Craig Ronindone outlines the reasons why Drake will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake was a fantastic fantasy find in 2017, but do not be surprised if he is an unforgivable fantasy flop in 2018.
It is probably not fair or accurate to label Drake as a sleeper heading into the 2018 season. Fantasy players with half a brain or a couple hours of research under their belts know Drake finished the 2017 campaign as Miami’s No. 1 tailback. He ended the season on a high note thanks to a three-game span between Weeks 13-15 of the regular season when he rushed for 312 yards, added 135 receiving yards and scored two touchdowns – all this during a crucial period in fantasy leagues when regular seasons end and playoffs begin. So the hype patrol should have their megaphones on full blast heading into the upcoming season.
But before you listen to the fantasy football pundits that extoll Drake’s virtues and think he will become one of the better RB2 picks of the season, take these factors into consideration and tread as carefully as you would over a bed of hot coals.
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Three Sticking Points
Miami’s Moribund Offense
Since 2012, Miami’s offense has been ranked 24th or worse overall five out of the six seasons. It has not mattered if franchise quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been healthy or hurt. The Dolphins have struck no fear in the hearts of opposing defenses, and the top tailbacks in their systems have suffered as a result.
So what did Miami do to upgrade its skilled positions this offseason? They signed two slot receivers, Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, and veteran tailback Frank Gore to back up and steal carries from Drake. Amendola will not be the same player without Tom Brady throwing him the ball. Wilson has seven touchdowns in four years and was one of the stranger signings this offseason. Tannehill is coming off a season-ending injury, so is there any reason to think this incarnation of the Dolphins offense will be better than the past half-dozen have been?
The Frank Gore Factor
Just when you thought Drake would be handed the keys to Miami’s rushing attack kingdom, Miami signed Gore to deflate his fantasy value quicker than liver and onions deflate my appetite. Gore might be a past-his-prime 35-year-old, but the man still had enough life in his legs to run for 961 yards last year. He is also returning to his home state, a place where he was a college hero at the University of Miami. While Gore might have been brought in to tutor Drake and help develop him into Miami’s next top tailback, Gore might be looking to fight Drake for every carry and reception so he can stamp 100 exclamation points on the end of his brilliant career. Drake would have been better off if Miami brought in used-up Jonathan Stewart or another vet without the ties to Florida or the resume Gore has.
Miami’s Recent Running Back Past
The Detroit Lions are known throughout the NFL and fantasy football circles for only having one 1,000-yard rusher since 2005 (Matthew Stafford must be so thankful!). Miami has not been that abysmal, but the Dolphins have only had five backs break the 1,000-yard barrier over the past 14 seasons. The last time their rushing attack has been mentioned much in the past decade was when Ronnie Brown first started running out of the Wildcat formation.
Remember when Jay Ajayi was Miami’s main man in the backfield? Well, that lasted one wonderful season. His 1,272 rushing yards in 2016 meant nothing after a lackluster start of the 2017 season, and he was unceremoniously traded away to the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, where he currently resides as their best back.
Miami upgraded its offensive line in the offseason with the additions of guard Josh Sitton and center Daniel Kilgore, but it still likely to be an average-at-best unit (ranked 20th by Pro Football Focus this preaseason). Miami’s offenses and personnel have not reflected an organization that truly cares about establishing a dominating rushing attack.
On top of all this, Drake has not exactly cemented himself as a sure thing. His sample size of good games is about the same as Trent Richardson. Three great weeks does not guarantee greatness. The defenses and coordinators in the league could catch on to him, or maybe Miami’s coaching staff know what his shortcomings are and that is why Gore was brought in. Maybe Gore is less of a mentor and more of an insurance policy.
Drake will likely be one of more popular second-tier No. 1 running backs taken once David Johnson, Todd Gurley and the other superstuds at the position are scooped up in the opening two rounds. There will be those fantasy players who believe Drake could be a 1,200-yard, 12-TD running back under the right circumstances. The problem is, he might be dealing with circumstances that will prevent him from being the fantasy sleeper many predict he will be in 2018.
