The Closer Carousel Turns (Already?) - How to Approach Boxberger, Kela, Strickland

March 31, 2018

Pierre Camus breaks down the relief pitchers who are now closers for their teams just ahead of the 2018 fantasy baseball season and how to approach them on waivers.

We already knew that the closer position was the most volatile in baseball, but this is getting ridiculous. Three would-be closers have been displaced days before the season even starts, one by injury and two by manager decision.

In 5x5 roto leagues, owning one of these volatile assets is a necessary evil. Throwing out FAAB money so early on someone who may not hold the job for more than a couple of weeks is an exercise in restraint. On the one hand, you could wind up with 30+ saves for a bargain price. On the other, you could burn some of your budget on a guy who flames out, kills your ratios, earning you nothing but heartache in the process.

So, how should you approach each of these firemen for the first week of the season and what should you expect if you've got one already? As always, we're here to help.

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Familiar Faces Set to Close (For Now)

Bradley Boxberger, Arizona Diamondbacks

Let's start with the least surprising of the lot. Boxberger was not the incumbent in Arizona, but he is an experienced closer and was always a candidate to earn the job in Spring Training. Archie Bradley was drafted with expectations that he might hold the job for a while, at least early in the season, but that didn't last long. It seems manager Torey Lovullo prefers him in a setup role for high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings, or could use the former starter as a stretch guy for long relief in emergency situations. His stock takes the biggest hit, as he may now fall to third in line for saves, with 34-year old Japanese rookie Yoshihisa Hirano lurking as an option.

Boxberger began closing games in 2011, notching 11 saves between Double-A and Triple-A in the Cincinnati Reds organization. He consistently kept his K-rate above 27%, even after breaking into the bigs, and parlayed his experience into a 41-save season for the Rays in 2015. Only an injury kept him from retaining the job next season and limited him to 57 games pitched between the 16-17 seasons, after appearing in 69 and 63 games the previous two seasons. If healthy, Boxberger has proven he can be a borderline elite closer, albeit in a relatively small sample size. Arizona figures to win 90+ games this year, giving Boxberger a real chance at top-10 RP value.

If you managed to scoop up Boxberger already, he should be held for the long-term unless you're dealing from great depth in the saves category and need to flip him for another asset. Bradley was never intended to be a closer, having inherited the job out of sheer desperation by the team last year when no other option proved suitable. He can still help your ratios and provide a strong strikeout total, but if you had him pegged for saves only and need the roster spot, he's not a must-hold in shallower leagues. Hirano is still a smart hold in deeper formats, as Boxberger does have injury history, but should only be viewed as a low-end handcuff and/or source of holds.

Bottom line: Add/hold Boxberger wherever possible, don't hesitate to buy now if you're in need of a closer. Don't hold your breath waiting for Bradley to reclaim the job.

Keone Kela, Texas Rangers

Here's what I said four days ago about this situation, just before Kela was announced as the closer.

Would think Claudio is technically the incumbent until he blows it, but it might not matter because they'll have three other guys (Kela, Bush, Leclerc) flip-flopping roles throughout the season. Looks like a situation to avoid in fantasy. https://t.co/4ofvwFw2bV

— Pierre Camus (@pfunk00) March 27, 2018

Now, I actually did have those three listed in order (although I didn't specify that), but clearly I didn't expect the Rangers to remove Claudio from the job before Opening Day. The question now becomes clear--should we care?

Of course we care. We always care about closers, which is why we're reading this in the first place. If I could rank all 30 Major League teams in order of stability for the closer role, I would put the Rangers dead last and this has only solidified that opinion. Kela gets first stab at the job, but your confidence level should be fairly low.

First of all, Kela definitely has the stuff to be a closer. He's got a plus fastball and a nasty curve that helped him strikeout nearly 12 batters per nine innings the last two seasons. That might be where the good news ends, however. His swinging strike rate has gone down the last three years, from 13.7% to 10.7% and his GB/FB rate has dropped precipitously from 1.76 in 2015 to 0.53 in 2017. Any time you've got a presumed closer with more home runs allowed than saves collected, that should give you great pause.

Now the worse part. Kela is likely still on probation of sorts with the club, as it was only a year ago that he was demoted to the minors for conduct detrimental to the team. GM Jon Daniels brushed off the move at the time, saying “It doesn’t change how we feel about him, short- , medium- and long-term. I have a lot of faith in him as a pitcher and a young man, and hopefully he’ll be back with us at some point going forward.” That has held true so far, but it can't be ignored that Kela is obviously not loved in the dugout by all and has some character concerns that don't bode well for a high-pressure job.

He also hit the disabled list for a brief time with shoulder inflammation, so sprinkle a little more risk onto that situation. Then there's the matter of the bullpen having three other guys with closing experience sitting behind him, ready to go at a moment's notice. If you waited on saves or simply missed out (or had Melancon or Bradley as one of your closers) you would be remiss not to take a chance here, but now that it's a huge risk that may not solve your problems.

Bottom line: Only pull the trigger if truly desperate. Be ready to pounce on Bush or Claudio if/when Kela loses the job.

Hunter Strickland, San Francisco Giants

The last name is one that is familiar to those who watch closer depth charts closely, as he always seems to be right on the cusp of earning the job but never has until now. Mark Melancon just can't stay healthy, so he was placed on the 10-day DL just ahead of the season opener. It's not slated to be a prolonged stay, but given the fact he only pitched 30 innings last year and is now 33 years old, there's a decent chance he doesn't return right away.

Strickland only has seven Major League saves under his belt over four full seasons and has never seemed to truly earn Bruce Bochy's trust. He's always posted strong ratios, but then again nine blown saves compared to seven secured ones is not a good ratio. Strickland doesn't figure to be more than a short-term fix and his leash will possibly be even shorter than Kela's, as the Giants truly hope to contend after making major moves this offseason. At least they did have high hopes until Madison Bumgarner and Jeff Samardzija both got injured.

Strickland is best served as an NL-only option, since Melancon will immediately inherit the job upon return. It could only take one or two blown chances anyway before Sam Dyson gets the next crack. Only a horrible spring by Dyson led to Strickland getting this opportunity in the first place. Don't get overly anxious in picking up Strickland just to collect a couple of saves at most, he is probably not worth the FAAB or roster spot.

Bottom line: Don't waste your time - Strickland is not going to be the closer of the future or present in SF.

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