August 21, 2016

RotoBaller's Frankie Soler analyzes the defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos and their fantasy outlook for the 2016 NFL season.

This article kicks off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.

The Denver Broncos may be the defending Super Bowl champions but as far as fantasy is concerned, they're one of the most polarizing teams in the NFL.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

Offseason Moves

Offseason Acquisitions: QB Paxton Lynch, QB Mark Sanchez, QB Trevor Siemian RB Devontae Booker

Offseason Departures: QB Brock Osweiller, QB Peyton Manning, TE Owen Daniels, TE Vernon Davis

Quarterback

Call me crazy but I am absolutely fascinated by the prospect of seventh round rookie Trevor Siemian replacing Peyton Manning under center for the defending Super Bowl champions. And the best part is, that's not even the only storyline going on within the Denver quarterback position. Between the roller coaster that is Mark Sanchez and the selection of first rounder Paxton Lynch, this is a fluid situation that is bound to drive both Bronco fans and fantasy owners bonkers.

The beauty of this scenario is that as of mid-August, we still have no idea who is going to start for the Broncos come week one. What we do know, however, that it is likely a two-horse race between Sanchez and Siemian at this point. First round rookie Paxton Lynch is likely to get red shirted for his first year and rightfully so. John Elway can afford to take a step back and polish his ring all of 2016 while the team sorts out its QB situation. This is the very definition of a "wait and see' in regard to what to expect out of a position battle.

The only true worry fantasy owners should have is whether or not it matters who is under center when it comes to rostering Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. We'll get to the specifics of those two players in our wide receivers section but from a personal standpoint I would much rather take my chances dealing with the devil I don't know than the one I do know. And by that I mean I'm hoping Denver rolls the dice on Siemian rather than stick with Sanchez. We know what the Sanchize is at this point in his career and what he isn't is a QB who is going to sustain a potent offense.

Running Backs

As far as mysteries go, the Denver backfield has been Scooby Doo equivalent of the NFL for years. No one really knows who the culprit is until the end of the episode, or in this case, game. Looking ahead to 2016, C.J. Anderson is locked in as the starter for the time being, making him a mid-level RB2 for fantasy purposes. Mid-level means he's around RB15 in terms of both ADP (FantasyFootballCalculator) and projections for the upcoming season. He's fine for what he is and that's a running back on a team who seems to go with a hot hand approach. Luckily for Anderson, he's had the hot hand for about a season and a half.

My worry in regard to actually drafting Anderson isn't even so much talent related as it is team related. The crutch argument of Gary Kubiak being a "one running back guy" is really only half true. Yes, Kubiak does tend to roll with one running back at a time but over the last two seasons it was kind of difficult to figure out who that back was going to be prior to the opening kickoff. If the Broncos decide to stick with Anderson all season, he's a no brainer RB2. Unfortanately the leash is so short that it should surprise no one if the Broncos tend to take it game-by-game.

All of that brings us to the tandem of Ronnie Hillman and rookie Devontae Booker. As of writing, Hillman remains on the roster but the clock is most certainly ticking. There have been numerous reports that suggest if/when Booker jumps him on the depth chart, Hillman will ultimately be cut by week one. Regardless of what happens with Hillman's roster spot, Booker is the "handcuff" you want to own here. I put that in quotes because there's a legitimate chance Booker can usurp Anderson as the top back on this team. He's a legit talent who isn't in the traditional handcuff situation.

A traditional handcuff is someone like DeAngelo Williams, a back who is going to yield to the younger, more talented, franchise RB for as long as the starter is healthy. Booker can threaten for the top spot and is most certainly worth a flier even if you don't already own C.J. Anderson.

Wide Receivers

Oh boy. As someone who already owns Emmanuel Sanders in a (albeit, deeper) league, I'm shaking in my books in thinking about this QB situation. Regardless of who is under center, the uncertainty of it all knocks both Demaryius Thomas and Sanders down a peg. Luckily, Thomas already has his risk baked into his ranking and his ADP reflects that. He's going in the early third round which is exactly where he should be selected. If he had a more stable passer throwing to him, you could bet the house that he'd flirting with the late first/early second round among the likes of A.J. Green and Allen Robinson. Instead, he takes a hit and should be viewed as a WR2 with massive upside in round three.

Sanders is a little trickier considering where you'll have to take him in order to own him. As a late sixth round pick, you're likely taking Sanders as a WR3/flex play, perhaps even your WR2 depending on your draft is going. That scares the bejesus out of me. There comes a point in every draft where the player's value trumps whatever other external factors are going on and that could very well turn out to be the case in your draft. It's going to come down to who you're passing up to take Sanders and how late it is you're taking him. Sure, the late sixth might seem great for someone who was a WR2 last year but if you're passing on Larry Fitzgerald to get him you're likely putting too much risk into the pick.

The odd thing is, the quarterback play wasn't exactly stellar last year in the first place. Both Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiller were extremely inconsistent last year so the question becomes how much worse will the combination of Siemian/Sanchez be? Demaryius was the 13th best fantasy receiver last year while Sanders clocked in at WR18. Like I said earlier, you're drafting Thomas to be a WR2 with upside which is exactly what he was last year anyway. Manning and Osweiller combined for 4,216 yards and 19 touchdowns last year. That's kind of doable from Siemian and Sanchez. Even if the yardage dips below 4,000, the projections on both Thomas and Sanders are fair.

Tight End

Denver really hasn't been the same at tight end since Julius Thomas left for Jacksonville a few years ago. Since then, they've had to patch up the position with band-aids and scotch tape with a plethora of veterans coming through. Virgil Green is the incumbent starter which means you can safely look elsewhere for fantasy production barring something truly unforeseen.

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]