Adrian Beltre: Undervalued Draft Day Target

BALLER MOVE: Target ~top 65

CURRENT ADP: 81.6

ANALYSIS: Sure things can be boring. Sure things don't elicit much excitement or get ooh's and ahh's at fantasy drafts. Sure things are often times cheered against, especially at this time of year where March Madness has everyone pulling for the underdog. However, at the end of the day, sure things are hard to come by in life.

Adrian Beltre is a sure thing, no-doubt-about-it Hall of Famer. He has accumulated the 5th most WAR all-time among players who have played at least 60% of their games at third-base. He sits at 4th all-time amongst that same group of third basemen in home runs, with 413 and counting. There are talks of extending the soon-to-be 37 year old's contract for an additional three years, which barring health issues, would likely move him up to the top-3 on each of those lists. Yet, many people don't talk about Beltre as if he is a Hall of Fame caliber player. This is a guy that has already accumulated more WAR than Derek Jeter and may still have four seasons left in him!

The same mindset that has kept Adrian Beltre out of the all-time-great's discussion seems to also be depressing Beltre's value for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. He is currently being selected in the 9th round of most 10-team leagues as the 9th third-basemen off the board. While the top four players at the position are no doubt top-20 picks (Donaldson, Machado, Arenado, Bryant) the other four players ahead of Beltre are a toss-up to me. Beltre is a four category performer (HR, RBI, R, AVG) which makes him valuable in both head to head and rotisserie formats. While he didn't have his best year in 2015, he still managed to hit 18 HR with 83 RBI while triple slashing .287/.334/.453. Compare those numbers to his career averages of .285/.337/.477 and you can see Beltre's remarkable consistency. Many will argue that the slight down tick in his numbers last year are due to age-related decline and that certainly may be true, but many also forget that Beltre was injured early last season which potentially caused his slow start at the plate.

During last season's first half, Beltre battled several small injuries, including a thumb problem that landed him on the 15-day DL in June. He hit just 7 HR before the All-Star break while triple slashing .255/.290./.396 in 297 plate appearances. Many were down on Beltre and were attributing his struggles to age-related decline, however, one bright spot remained. Beltre's defense in the first half was as solid as ever which suggests that his rough first half at the plate was more slump/injury related than due to his advancing age. Hey, none of us here are getting younger, so I'm not suggesting the Beltre started to Benjamin Button in the second half, but he did seem to find the fountain of youth. Beltre came back from his DL stint and absolutely mashed in the second half. In 74 games, he hit 11 HR, knocked in 61 runs, and triple slashed .318/.376/.509.

Beltre came to camp healthy and has maintained that status thus far which has resulted in discussions about a potential 3-year extension. To do that, the Rangers must trust that Beltre will continue to produce. I don't think it's a reach to expect Beltre to hit near .300 with 20+ homers, numbers he pretty much approaches or surpasses every year. That is good enough for 5th-6th round consideration in my book and makes him the #5 third basemen off the board for me.