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Make sure to also check out our awesome 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, where you will find more of my dynasty rankings. You'll also find RotoBaller staff rankings for all positions, tiered rankings starting to ramp up, MLB prospect rankings for 2016, and much more. Okay, let's get to it.
Ranking the Top 3B for Dynasty Leagues
The modern day Brooks Robinson, Machado does something way more impressive than the Georgia Crawl. He was the only player in major league baseball who played every game in 2015. He puts up elite power numbers, he led all 3B in stolen bases, and he is only 24 years old. In other words, he is the only other man on the earth I would consider kissing on the mouth. Those kinds of statements are strange knowing my Dad is reading this, but my feelings must be known.
Nobody expected Machado to belt 35 home runs last year (he matched his career high of 14 by June), and nobody expects him to steal over 20 bases again this year. Machado’s closest comparison at the plate is Alex Rodriguez, without all the baggage.
The All Star, gold glove, silver slugger winning Arenado was barely edged out as the top 3B basically because he doesn’t steal bases; and handsomeness. Compared to Machado’s 20 stolen bases, Arenado was only able to hustle a total of two stolen bases. That’s out of seven woeful attempts.
Sharknado posted a better than expected .287 BA in 157 games played. Another shocking fact is that Arenado led the National league in home runs and the entire league in runs batted in. To put Arenado’s season in perspective, he pretty much did everything MVP winning Josh Donaldson did, except Nolan Arenado is only 24. Consider also that he is doing just as much damage on a much weaker Colorado Rockies team. For those who want to knock him for playing at Coors field, he hit more than half his home runs on the road. Arenado is a solid top ten, arguably top five overall keeper.
3. Kris Bryant
Bryant had a great rookie season. His 26 home runs and 99 runs batted has him ranked in the top 5 for 3B. He met most reasonable expectations regarding his pedigree. I think Bryant was a tad overhyped coming into the league and there are concerns with his high 30.6 K% .
Bryant is going to be a great player, but he is unfortunately being outplayed by two other prized young 3B in Machado and Arenado. We are enjoying an offensive renaissance at the hot corner with Bryant as Raphael, Arenado as Michelangelo, and Machado as Davinci. That is literally how good these third baseman are, turtle power.
Bryant has a very similar contact rate and strikeout percentage to Crush Davis. That is a great comp, but if Bryant can reduce the strikeouts and increase the contact rate of pitches outside the zone, he can raise his batting average and therefore his overall game to an elite level.
4. Miguel Sano
Sano is going to be a special player. At the plate he is drawing comparisons to Giancarlo Stanton. Don't believe me? Google it.
Sano obviously doesn’t have Stanton’s size, but he has the power, the walk rate, and he hits the ball very hard. As a 22-year-old rookie, Sano hit 18 HR’s with 50 RBI in half a season. Steamer projects him for 31 home runs, which should be considered his floor. Sano is converting to OF so enjoy the position flexibility while it lasts.
With a big FU to Billy Beane, Donaldson had an absolutely monstrous season. His 41 home runs, 122 runs, and 123 RBI resulted in the number two most valuable bat in baseball ending the year sandwiched between Bryce Harper and Paul Goldschmidt. For some dumb reason, I was down on Donaldson at the start of 2015 season. This is the first and only prediction I have ever been wrong on. Surprisingly, he went on to win the MVP award while I went on to accidentally glue my head to my shoulder.
Franco has power and can hit for average. In only 80 games in 2015, Franco hit 14 home runs and had 50 runs batted in. His .217 ISO would be good for top 25 overall and top five among third baseman. At 23 years old, the Phillies have a cornerstone to build their team around in Franco. He will most likely bat cleanup in a pathetic lineup and then when Ryan Howard retires, the right hander will transition to first base. Rinse, wash, repeat.
Over the last three seasons only Mike Trout has scored more runs than Carpenter. Trout also hit 57 more home runs, but that’s why he is considered the best player in the universe. I’m not comparing the two (well I am, but you get the point).
In 2015, Carpenter set career highs in home runs with 28 and RBI with 84. Surprisingly, with the additional power, he did not sacrifice batting average by posting an identical .270 batting average in each of the last two seasons. The only noticeable difference was an increase in strikeouts from 15.7% to 22.7%, which is also slightly better than Mike Trout’s 23.2%.
8. Todd Frazier
Frazier provides a nice speed/power combo - rare from the corner. Over the last three seasons, Frazier has increased his RBI and HR totals. At 30, he seems like a safe investment for at least 25 home runs and 80 RBI. However, I have concerns.
Adjustments to the new city, new team, new ballpark, and new league can have a positive or negative effects. The other big issue is consistency. It’s no secret that in each of the last two seasons, Frazier has hit an absolute wall in July.
He starts off producing top 20 value over the first half of the season and falls off a cliff. The 2007 Rutgers University Big East player of the year needs to produce consistently for an entire season because he is absolutely killing fantasy teams when he is needed most.
9. Joey Gallo
Gallo’s ceiling is Mark Reynolds. He unfortunately looks more like Chris Carter, circa 2015. He is a great gamble with a very high upside capable of producing elite power numbers. ZiPS projects him to smash 27 HR with a .209 batting average. Yowza.
10. Evan Longoria
Most pundits seem to think that at 30, Longoria’s best years are behind him. After posting back to back sub-25 home run seasons, nobody thinks he has the gusto to hit over 25 again. I disagree.
Two consecutive seasons of declining ISO and an increase in swing rate on pitches outside the strike zone are scary. But both can easily be attributed to trying to do too much. He is trying too hard on a Rays team struggling to make the playoffs. We could also attribute the down numbers to lingering injuries. A tough guy like Longo rarely hits the DL and is always playing through injuries.
Mechanically, he needs to make a few adjustments at the plate. Mark it down that Longoria will have a big year. Invigorated by the Rays acquisition of Corey Dickerson and inspired by all the hate, Longo will have his own renaissance with 30 plus home runs and 85 runs batted in.
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