RotoBaller's Experts Draft Results & Analysis - 14 Team PPR League

September 2, 2014

Condor analyzes RotoBaller's 2014 fantasy football experts league draft, a 14-team PPR league. He talks about sleepers, breakouts/busts, each team's roster & draft strategy.

The RotoBaller’s Expert’s League is an ultra-competitive 14 team PPR league where owners can start one quarterback, two wide receivers, two running backs, one tight end, two flex’s a kicker and a defense, with only four bench spots.

As you can imagine, this league is both deep (in terms of positions that need to be filled) and shallow (in terms of bench space), which makes it a very challenging format where picking the right players is absolutely essential.

Our slow draft kicked off on August 20th and finished yesterday. Please feel free to follow our league at throughout the season to see the Rotoballer experts transactions and starting lineups. We use Fleaflicker to host our league, which is a fantastic, incredibly customizable platform – and I highly recommend that you check it out.

Without further ado, let’s get to the draft:

Round 1 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

The first round went mostly as expected, with a focus on the top four running backs, wide receivers and tight end. In a 14 team league, 3 down RBs are at a premium, and the first round certainly reflects that. Some might quibble with the picks of Bell and Bernard to end the round, but in an experts league, the only way to ensure that you get your guy is to draft him.

Round 2 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

At the top of round 2, teammates Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall go back to back, which I think is appropriate for that offense, where there isn’t a WR1 and WR2 but rather a WR1a and WR1b. I’m FLEX-y has perhaps the best value of the draft with his pick of Montee Ball. Peyton Manning’s running backs always put up points, and Ball might be the most talented back Peyton’s had since Edgirrin James. In a bit of an upset, Drew Brees is the first QB picked at 23rd overall in the second round. It’s a risky, yet potentially league winning move - Brees has an incredibly favorable schedule, but New Orleans coach Sean Peyton has talked about emphasizing the run game this offseason.

Round 3 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

The third round is filled with tough decisions for everyone this year, and it was interesting to see how each owner navigated the minefield. My favorite move from this round is Zach – Lopsided Trade’s stacking of Julius Thomas with Peyton Manning. Thomas will likely fill the void left by Eric Decker’s departure, especially in the red zone. My second favorite move is the pickup of Andre Johnson. Yes, he’s getting older, but savvy fantasy football players will recognize that in the last five years, Andre Johnson has finished as the #1 PPR wide receiver twice (’08 and ’09), and as the #6 and #10 PPR wide receiver the past two years (AJ was injured in 2011). It’s hard to imagine that Ryan Fitzpatrick could be worse than the collective dumpster fire that started at QB for the Texans last year.

Round 4 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

Round 4 leads off with some incredible values, including Blazin Boosh’s snag of Ben Tate as the 45th player off the board. Whether Brian Hoyer or Johnny Manziel is starting, Cleveland will be committed to running the football, and don’t forget what an athletic freak Tate is:
 

 
I also like the selection of Jordan Cameron by Los Pterodactyls, who paired him with Gronk to form the RB leagues most deadly TE tandem. If Gronk is healthy, Cameron can move to the flex, while if Gronk goes down, Los Pterodactyls still has a top option at tight end, a position of relative scarcity.

Real Talk Raph made an interesting pick of Bishop Sankey at #49th overall. While it is impossible to deny that Sankey has incredible upside - his combine numbers were off the charts -- it doesn’t seem that he has earned the coaching staff’s trust so far in the preseason, playing behind both Shonn Greene and Dexter McCluster. While this pick could pay off down the stretch, I think it will be very tough to start Sankey in the beginning of the year with any confidence whatsoever.

Round 5 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

The fifth round is where the bargain hunters came out, with a mixture of older vets (Frank Gore, Reggie Wayne, Jason Witten), players with injury concerns (Jeremy Maclin, Percy Harvin, Marques Colston), players with performance issues (Trent Richardson, Lamar Miller, Chris Johnson) and small speedy wide receivers (Desean Jackson, Emmanuel Sanders, Percy Harvin, Kendall Wright,  TY Hilton). The pick I’m going to focus on here is… well, mine. I grabbed Trent Richardson to be my RB1 with the #67 pick overall. I felt a little dirty grabbing him here, but this was ultimately a risk-seeking move. Trent Richardson has already put up one serviceable NFL season, so we know he can play. The Colt’s offensive line is in shambles, but Pep Hamilton is going to want to attempt to run a balanced offense.  So, although by all accounts Trent has been stinking it up in preseason, the opportunity to grab a 3 down back this late in the draft was too good to pass up. Might I end up regretting the pick? Hell, I regretted it before I hit the draft button. But the upside could potentially win me the league.

Round 6 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League Draft

I like the sixth round, in terms of selections, much better than the fifth. The upside of Kyle Rudolph, Reuben Randle, Justin Hunter, Mike Wallace and Golden Tate is much more appealing to me than some of the safer options picked in the previous round. For example, I’d much rather have Mike Wallace, his teams #1 receiving option, than Emmanuel Sanders, the #4 receiving option, even if Sanders is receiving passes from Peyton Manning. The lesson for those keeping score at home - don’t be afraid to “reach” for your guys, and use ADP as guidelines, not as hard and fast rules.

Round 7 - RotoBaller's Fantasy Football League

I love Demaryius Targarean’s pick of Kelvin Benjamin here, a player who I grabbed in the eleventh or so round when we did or RotoBaller’s expert mock. Benjamin may be a little raw, but he’s a gigantic redzone target on a team with very few exciting wide receiver options. I grabbed Bernard Pierce near the end of the 7th round to be my second running back, in another risk seeking move. Gary Kubiak’s offenses generally put up good rushing numbers, and Ray Rice is suspended for the first two weeks of the season. I’m hoping that Pierce plays well enough the first two weeks that when Ray Rice does come back, Pierce has earned at least a 50/50 split. I love Pierce’s one-cut running style for this offense and think that Pierce could be a steal this year. Of course, he could also flop. No risk, no reward….

Analysis & Commentary On Each Team

At the halfway point of this draft, we start to enter into lottery ticket territory, so instead of going through the rest of the draft round by round (you can see the full draft breakdown at http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/past-draft?leagueId=156041), I’m going to copy each team’s final rosters and give some brief thoughts on their roster composition:

A very solid lineup, with a mix of established veterans and youngsters with upside. This team’s strength is it’s running backs, and if any one of the young wide receivers (Kenny Stills, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter) breaks out, this team could be a monster. Major props for drafting the team’s namesake (Rashad Jennings) - a very high end move.

This team is very top-heavy, anchored by Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles and Julius Thomas and should be a weekly contender on that basis alone. I wish Zach had handcuffed Jamaal Charles with Knile Davis, as an injury could be devestating. Zach clearly was gunning for some of the smaller, speed/possession type wide receivers with Kendall Wright, Tavon Austin and Steve Smith - it will be interesting to see if that approach gives Zach the consistency he needs to compete.

This team has a nice balance of high-end wide receivers (Roddy White, Brandon Marshall) and pass-catching running backs (Reggie Bush, Gio Bernard, Danny Woodhead). It’s clear that this team was drafted to be optimized for the league’s PPR settings, and is loaded with quality upside wide receiver depth (Cecil Shorts, Kenny Britt, Danny Amendola, Brian Hartline). Tight end could be an issue, but this team has the trade pieces if an upgrade becomes necessary. Again, major props for drafting the player who the team is named after (Andrew Luck).

This team has perhaps the best quality RB depth, with a monster lineup of Demarco Murray, Montee Ball, and Shane Vereen, backed up with my favorite running back sleeper, Roy Helu. While wide receiver may be an issue, it also could be a position of strength  if Jeremy Maclin steps into Desean Jackson’s old role, Wes Welker makes a full recovery and Golden Tate takes advantage of defenses focus on Calvin Johnson.

This team has a strong veteran presence, with Frank Gore, Steven Jackson and Andre Johnson, and is complemented by some potential breakout players with the capacity to win the league league (Christine Michael, Zach Ertz). It may be tough to figure out start-sit decisions in the beginning of the season though.

This team oozes with top established and upside picks at the running back position. Take a moment to read through those picks, and join me in a slow clap. Nothing needs to be said about Lesean McCoy and Doug Martin, two of the best backs in the league. Latavius Murray has beastly physical measurements, and its playing behind aging and recently injured running backs (Maurice Jones-Drew,  Darren McFadden). Carlos Hyde plays behind the ageless Frank Gore, and I suspect that the 49ers transition to a 50/50 split to keep Gore fresh. Jonathan Stewart hasn’t been healthy in years, but when he is healthy, he has double-digit touchdown potential. I don’t like the Pierre Garcon / TY Hilton pairing as much, as I think both will suffer from reduced opportunities this year, though the picks of Kelvin Benjamin, Aaron Dobson and Doug Baldwin represented tremendous value with huge upside potential.

This team took a very balanced approach, mixing in top wide receivers (AJ Green, Victor Cruz) with running back value picks (Marshawn Lynch, Ben Tate, Maurice Jones Drew). This team systematically scooped value in every round, and represents a very diversified portfolio of quality fantasy football players.

I hate this team. But I love it. Probably not a good sign when you have a love/hate relationship with your own team. I started out by scooping two of the top 8 wide receivers (Julio Jones and Jordy Nelson), which I hope will give me an edge as no other team was able to grab more than one. Then, while the rest of the league scooped quality running backs, I kept drafting quality wide receivers with the goal of having as many #1 wide receivers of my team as possible. Unfortunately, my Josh Gordon gamble doesn’t look like it’s going to pay off, and I should probably pick up a kicker and a quarterback. This team is a go big or go home team, and will either demolish other teams or flame out spectacularly. I’m very curious to learn which.

Any team that starts Calvin Johnson and Keenan Allen is going to have a high weekly floor, and the Commish grabbed new Raiders #1 WR James Jones and potential breakout speedster Marcus Wheaton to compliment his established players. Although the running backs look less spectacular by comparison, they all represent #1 backs on their team and they all were grabbed way below market value. I don’t like the pick of Phillip Rivers in the 11th, who, while admittedly great value, is unlikely to crack the starting lineup behind Brees. I would much rather have used that pick and the roster slot on a lotto ticket.

Uncle Leo’s team is also a value team, anchored by its wide receivers. Dez Bryant, Antonio Brown and Reggie Wayne should generate consistent points, and Cody Latimer and Jarett Boykin are each an injury away from a huge role on the league’s top two offenses. The all geriatric combination of Health Miller and Antonio Gates should be surprisingly stable in the tight end slot, and Uncle Leo has two of my favorite mid-round running backs in Toby Gerhart and Joique Bell. While I don’t love the three-headed running back monster developing in New Orleans, Pierre Thomas should have consistent PPR value, and Knile Davis and Jeremy Hill are lotto tickets waiting to be cashed.

Real Talk Raph drafted a potentially schizophrenic team - Desean Jackson and Mike Wallace practically invented boom/bust, while Ladarius Green oozes talent but may lack opportunity. However, the combination of Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald should provide some floor stability and when Bishop Sankey gets consistent touches, this team will be brutal to face.

This might be my favorite team out of all of them.  When your lineup boasts Rob Gronkowski, Matt Forte, Aaron Rodgers, and Jordan Cameron, you’d have to try hard not to score touchdowns. I love the picks of Dwayne Allen, Greg Jennings, Anquon Boldin, Ray Rice and Fred Jackson, all players who could easily outperform their ADP, and Sammy Watkins could be the top rookie wide receiver this year if his ribs heal properly and he develops a good connection with EJ Manuel.

This team has a lot of risk, but also a lot of potential reward, having realized a tremendous discount when picking Arian Foster, Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden - three very early round picks last year. I love the pick of Eric Decker, who I think is tremendously undervalued, and the rest of the wide receivers have big upside, albeit with some bust potential (Terrence Williams, Emmanuel Sanders, Hakeem Nicks).

This team has my favorite WR depth, with Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith and Michael Floyd all poised to explode this season. I also like the move of drafting both Miami running backs and seeing who wins the job, and I think that Tyler Eifert was a steal when drafted.