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Expert Week 5 NFL touchdown scorer predictions and anytime TD props. Get our best bets on first touchdown props, and anytime TD odds for Sunday's slate of games.
The 2026 NFL season heads into Week 5 with another full slate of intriguing touchdown opportunities. Rather than chasing the shortest prices, we're focusing on players whose roles, matchup, and usage create value at the number.
As always, the key with volatile markets like touchdown props is price sensitivity. A player can be a strong touchdown candidate and still a bad bet if the odds are too short. These picks are built around finding the right mix of opportunity and payout.
Each week, this column aims to pinpoint touchdown picks using a model that factors in usage rates, goal-line opportunities, and match-up tendencies. Results are tracked based on the proposed unit bet using the best available odds in the market at the time of publication. Let’s get into it.
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Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Trey McBride, TE - Arizona Cardinals (+115, DraftKings) (46% Novig)
McBride has been a target machine through the first four games, and he already has 33 catches for 242 yards and two touchdowns this season. He ranks third in the NFL in red-zone targets, highlighting just how heavily Arizona relies on him when it gets into scoring position.
Trey McBride TD and the Cardinals take advantage of the blocked punt!
AZvsLAC on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/rPVcJBhlBV— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2026
The matchup is especially appealing. Detroit has allowed six touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season, the most in the league. The Lions have struggled to contain the position, and McBride is arguably the toughest test they’ve faced yet.
Given his elite red-zone usage and Detroit’s struggles against tight ends, McBride is a strong anytime touchdown play this week.
BET: 1.0 units to win 1.15 units.
Quinshon Judkins, RB - Cleveland Browns (+160, FanDuel) (38% Novig)
The Browns are one of the more surprising stories of the 2026 season, entering Week 5 with a 3-1 record. Judkins has just one touchdown this season, but the competency this offense has shown bodes well for his outlook moving forward.
Judkins is Cleveland’s clear lead back, having received all nine of the Browns’ red-zone carries this season. He scored seven touchdowns as a rookie in a truly dysfunctional offense, so there’s reason to believe his production can improve in a more competent offense this year.
The matchup makes this play even more enticing. The Jets have allowed four touchdowns to running backs this season, the fifth-most in the league. Cleveland should be able to keep this game competitive, giving Judkins opportunities to find the end zone throughout the afternoon.
BET: 0.65 units to win 1.04 units.
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More Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bets
Odds from Novig are shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.
Christian Watson, WR - Green Bay Packers (+180, FanDuel), (35% Novig)
Watson has already scored four times in four games and ranks 6th in the NFL with seven red-zone targets. Green Bay has had very little success running the football this season, which has led to more opportunities for the pass catchers.
Chicago’s defense has been better recently, so this isn’t a slam-dunk matchup. However, their success has come against the unremarkable offenses of the Vikings, Eagles, and Jets.
In addition to one of the league’s best roles in the red zone, Watson has explosive big-play ability that allows him to be a scoring threat from anywhere on the field. If Chicago's defense takes a step back this week, there's strong value in betting Watson to score.
BET: 0.6 units to win 1.08 units.
RJ Harvey, RB - Denver Broncos (+200, FanDuel), (32% Novig)
Harvey has yet to find the end zone this season, but he scored 12 touchdowns as a rookie with Sean Payton calling plays. Reports indicate Payton is set to resume play-calling duties this week after the Broncos’ offense struggled through four games with offensive coordinator Davis Webb in that role.
Harvey has yet to record a red-zone carry this season, but his usage last week was encouraging. After missing Week 2 with an injury, he may have still been limited in Week 3. Last week, Harvey out-snapped J.K. Dobbins 29-21, and there have been growing calls for him to take over the lead role following Dobbins’ inefficient production.
With Payton back calling plays and the potential for Harvey to move ahead of Dobbins in the backfield pecking order, 2-to-1 odds are intriguing for Harvey to find the end zone.
BET: 0.5 units to win 1.0 units.
Roschon Johnson, RB - Chicago Bears (+500, DraftKings), (17% Novig)
My favorite longshot of the week is the beneficiary of an injury to Kyle Monangai. D’Andre Swift appears to be fully healthy despite landing on the injury report this week, but head coach Ben Johnson has a long history of successfully using multiple backs in his offensive game plans.
With Monangai sidelined, Roschon should see at least some of his workload. He’s a capable replacement, too, having scored six touchdowns in 2024 before Monangai arrived last season. When Chicago gets into scoring position, Johnson could have a legitimate opportunity to find the end zone.
The matchup makes this longshot even more appealing. Green Bay has already allowed seven touchdowns to running backs this season, the second-most in the NFL. That vulnerability gives Johnson a plausible path to scoring, even while Swift remains the lead back.
BET: 0.2 units to win 1.0 units.
Bonus First Touchdown Scorer Bet
Sam LaPorta, TE - Detroit Lions (+1200, Caesars), (9% Novig)
In an offense with Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, tight end Sam LaPorta often goes overlooked. Even playing with uber-talented teammates, LaPorta has truly elite usage in the red zone.
His nine red-zone targets are tied for the third-most in the league. He also has an impressive five end-zone targets this season, with both of his touchdowns coming on end-zone targets.
LaPorta has significantly longer odds than Gibbs and St. Brown, which makes him an intriguing bet to score the first touchdown in the best game environment of the week.
BET: 0.1 units to win 1.2 units.
