College Football Betting Picks - Expert Predictions, CFB Picks Against the Spread: Week 3

September 18, 2026

Mike's Week 3 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, September 19, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

Last week was my best week of the year, but that's not saying much. We've got some things figured out, but some teams still haven't played a team with a pulse. Some still won't. Some are still slumming with FCS teams. We have 54 FBS vs. FBS matchups on Saturday, making it the biggest college football day of the year so far. Let's do it!

I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway. If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny. I will tell you a couple of games that I like, even though I will not assign a wager for them.

I hit two of the three recommendations again last week, so I'll pick a couple more. I like Maine +37.5, Iowa-Northern Iowa under 49.5, and Montana +17.5. I don't feel as good about these as the first two weeks. Take that for what you will.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 3

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.

I've had trouble finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but I will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.

This has been my worst start to a season in 10 years. It's time to erase that deficit!

Coastal Carolina at Delaware (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Not only do these geniuses start a half-hour before everyone else, but they have the best marketing team in college sports.

The Cockfight In The Tub - Saturday at 11:30 AM ?

General Tickets ⤵️
?️: https://t.co/UmjaI2ZBkk

Student Tickets ⤵️
?️: https://t.co/PExNwQ93Bp pic.twitter.com/7eaUG0DrIB

— Delaware Football (@Delaware_FB) September 15, 2026

I don't even care about the game anymore! That's a lie. I'm looking forward to seeing Nick Minicucci on a somewhat national stage again.

Pick: Delaware -4.5

(2) Georgia (-24.5) at Arkansas

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Yikes! This line is up a full seven points from the open because the sharps are hammering Georgia. I get it. Arkansas is the worst SEC team, and it's not even close this year.

On top of that, we are seeing things from the Georgia offense that we've never seen. I know Tennessee stumbled in Fayetteville a couple of years ago, but Kirby Smart doesn't do that.

Kirby Smart's Georgia teams have won 44 straight against unranked teams and 68 out of 69 since 2017. Georgia doesn't lose, but I don't like the huge jump in the line. I can't take Arkansas, so I'll just lower the bet a touch.

Pick: Georgia -24.5

Kent State at (6) Ohio State (-52.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Good grief... There was a time when there was no chance Ohio State would cover this. Now there's a decent chance that Ohio State's third string is better than Kent's starters.

Pick: Ohio State -52.5

Buffalo at (14) Penn State (-40.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I know that this is a terrible Buffalo team, but Penn State didn't exactly play well against Temple. They didn't cover this against Marshall either. Leave this one alone. There are better spots.

Pick: Buffalo +40.5

Tulane at Kansas State (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is too high. Jaylin Lucas is the best RB in a small conference. Both teams run the ball a lot. Time is going to run out before K-State runs off with it.

Pick: Tulane +20.5

Bowling Green at Iowa State (-23.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Iowa State impressed me a lot in ¡El Assico! Iowa's defense is again one of the better ones in the country. This offense is going to explode on Bowling Green. Remember the name, Jaylen Raynor. He's in for a big game here.

Pick: Iowa State -23.5

Arizona State (-5.5) vs. Kansas at London

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

What is the infatuation with moving games overseas? For the NBA and NFL, I get it to a certain point. For college, it doesn't make sense. Are we going to open a London University and have it join the Big Ten? You think they bitch about travel now...

The foreign games are usually a little rough on these teams. Kansas went straight from Columbia to KCI so they could leave for London. Arizona State is the better team, and not just by a little bit. I won't bet heavily on this game, though.

Pick: Wake Forest -2.5

North Carolina at Clemson (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

I can't believe that Clemson is favored. They shouldn't be. There is no juice on the Clemson line and very little on the money line. I'll be surprised if this line closes above three points.

Pick: North Carolina +3.5

Akron at Minnesota (-23.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is a get-right game for the Gophers. They need it after getting smacked by Mississippi State last week.

Pick: Minnesota -23.5

North Texas at Texas State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

The Bobcats are money at home, but North Texas demolished UNLV last week. This low-key might be the best game of the day until Oxford.

Texas State already lost to UTSA, so it's a critical week for them. Texas State knows it. They're running promotions to get fans to the game.

It's another great one on USA. Brad Jackson of Texas State is worth the hype, but after seeing what UTSA did to that defense in the second half, North Texas RB Jahiem White is the key to this game. He could have a monster!

Sometimes it's nice to just watch a great game and not sweat the outcome. This is one of those.

Pick: North Texas +2.5

Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin (-24.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Look, I know that Wisconsin is a lot better than last year, but I don't trust the offense that much. I guess I trust EMU less. Michigan State covered this, so...

Pick: Wisconsin -24.5

North Carolina State at Vanderbilt (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Very impressed with Jared Curtis’s debut on Saturday for Vandy. Showed excellent arm talent and zip, also made a handful of high level throws inside and outside the pocket flashing some really nice touch. You’ll hear his name a lot more very soon. pic.twitter.com/QR7zQizPen

— Cooper Petagna (@cooperpetagna) September 16, 2026

I don't mind Vanderbilt not throwing Jared Curtis out there from the start. I think it will help him. He learned on the sidelines in Week 1 and took it into the game in Week 2.

He showed he was ready with a strong game against Delaware last week. CJ Bailey isn't as bad as Virginia made him look, and Curtis is making his first start. This is a tough one.

Vegas dropped the line and dropped the juice on Vandy, meaning they want us to bet the Commodores. The thing is, Bailey has been far worse on the road than at home.

Pick: Vanderbilt -3.5

Wyoming at Central Michigan (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This may be the worst game you'll ever watch...if you can find it.

Pick: Central Michigan -1.5

Temple at Toledo (-5.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

John Alan Richter looks a lot better than he did at the end of last year. Adjatay Dabbs is a good receiver. This feels low.

Pick: Toledo -5.5

Kentucky at (9) Texas A&M (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Remember how A&M pulled away from Arizona State last week even though it didn't feel as if they dominated the game? It's going to feel like deja vu in this one.

Pick: Texas A&M -16.5

Florida State at (10) Alabama (-19.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Oh man, I hate this line. I hate Ashton Daniels and the FSU secondary more. Look for a monster game out of Ryan Coleman-Williams.

Pick: Alabama -19.5

(12) USC (-23.5) at Rutgers

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

KJ Duff might be the best receiver in college, but you'll never know it on that team. Duff goes nuts, USC wins but doesn't cover. It's the story of the season for the Trojans.

Be wary of movement on this line. Bet365 yanked the line after it came out that Trent Mosley will be out. If this drops under 20, I'll have to think more about it.

Pick: USC -23.5

(16) SMU at (23) Louisville (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This is going to be a great one. Kevin Jennings has the most passing yards among quarterbacks who didn't have a Week 0 game. Lincoln Kienholz has been great, even against the vaunted Mississippi defense.

Louisville found a star in Lincoln Kienholz. pic.twitter.com/ea22RFgRUZ

— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) September 12, 2026

SMU's issues running the ball will be a massive problem here. I feel like Louisville pulls away. The rising juice on the Cardinals tells me Vegas feels the same. The line movement comes next.

Pick: Louisville -1.5

Utah State at Utah (-27.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Come on, it's the Battle of the Brothers! Despite the massive talent gap, Utah didn't cover this in 2024. Utah hasn't won by that much since 2008, when the Utes went undefeated and beat Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

I guess there's a chance that this Utah team is that good. This still feels high for a storied rivalry.

Utah leads the Battle of the Brothers 80-29-4.

Utah State hasn't won in Salt Lake since 1997.

Every game since 1892, one graphic. Saturday can't come soon enough. pic.twitter.com/KoaLTqIP2Q

— Salt City Sports (@saltcitysportut) September 17, 2026

Pick: Utah State +27.5

UTEP at (19) Michigan (-35.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

UTEP likely won't score, but do I trust the Michigan offense to score more than five touchdowns? Not even a little bit.

Pick: UTEP +35.5

Miami (OH) at Cincinnati (-16.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This rivalry doesn't have a cool name, but it is the oldest college football rivalry west of the Allegheny Mountains. The first game was played in 1888. The Victory Bell was added as a trophy in the 1890s when some Cincinnati students stole the bell from Miami's Harrison Hall that was rung after victories.

The bell itself disappeared for more than a decade, from the 1930s until the end of World War II. The trophy is now a replica of the original bell. Unfortunately, greed has killed this rivalry as well. This is the last scheduled game between Miami and Cincinnati.

Until last year, this game has been played every year since 1909 except for three years during World War II. This feels like a game that Miami keeps close, being it's the last game in the series and all. I'm not touching it.

Pick: Miami (OH) +16.5

Western Kentucky at (4) Indiana (-44.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Georgia covered this last week, and Indiana has made it a point to cover spreads like this.

Pick: Indiana -44.5

Stanford at Duke (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Nerd Bowl is now a conference game. No nerd has ever run like Nate Sheppard. Not only is Sheppard second in FBS in rushing yards (by one yard to a guy who has played one more game), but he leads Duke in targets. He's the one-man gang.

It’s none other than Nate Sheppard answering right back with a TD for @DukeFOOTBALL! ? pic.twitter.com/bIzWDNQsG7

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 12, 2026

Pick: Duke -10.5

Ball State at Liberty (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

That half seals it for me. Neither team is good.

Pick: Ball State +14.5

Louisiana Tech at Baylor (-20.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

This line is slowly creeping upward, and I'm not sure why. The Bulldogs had a respectable showing under the lights in Red Stick last weekend. The Bulldogs still have trouble throwing the ball, but they capitalized on takeaways. I can't help feeling that this is too high now.

Pick: Louisiana Tech +20.5

Mississippi State at South Carolina (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

Yeah, I'll bite. Kamario Taylor is everything that people told us LaNorris Sellers was.

?Kamario Taylor

Few of his top throws vs Minnesota ⬇️

*Multiple type of throws: deep, intermediate, on the run, designed roll out, scramble, etc

*Off Play Action: 9/14,172yds (of his 227yds), 3tds

*180yds thrown between numbers

*Excited to watch him vs Sellers next week pic.twitter.com/Ow6Li9yi3d

— QB Spotlight (@QBspotlight) September 13, 2026

Pick: Mississippi State +4.5

East Carolina at Old Dominion (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This is a low-key good quarterback matchup between Mitch Griffis and Quinn Henicle. The ECU receivers push this over the top for me.

Pick: East Carolina +2.5

Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I know that the Shula Bowl is a rivalry, but Caden Veltkamp isn't making the mistakes that he did last year, and Easton Messer is one of the best receivers in college.

The Owls took it to Navy last week. They should dominate the Panthers.

Pick: Florida Atlantic -6.5

Charlotte at Appalachian State (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

App State beat a solid East Carolina team in Greenville last week. Charlotte lost to the Citadel.

Pick: Appalachian State -17.5

Marshall (-4.5) at Missouri State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Skyler Locklear has finally had some success after some forgettable years at UTEP. Marshall should be better than they are. The defense is struggling, and this is on the road.

It's also supposed to be really HOT in Springfield. I don't see Marshall winning this.

Pick: Missouri State +4.5

Troy at (20) Missouri (-27.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Tigers are running the ball well even without Ahmad Hardy, and Austin Simmons is everything we thought he would be at Mississippi last year. Missouri is a sneaky-good team.

Pick: Missouri -27.5

Florida (-2.5) at Auburn

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Byrum Brown beat the Gators last year. This time he gets to try it at home.

Pick: Auburn +2.5

Georgia State at Central Florida (-17.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

It's really hard to gauge what UCF is capable of thanks to the deluge in Pittsburgh last week. The Panthers beat Kennesaw by 14 on the road last week after coming in at a 7.5-point dog.

This looks a little bit high to me, but I'm not that gung-ho about this bet.

Pick: Georgia State +17.5

Connecticut (-3.5) at Southern Mississippi 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Kalieb Osborne looked pretty good against Maryland last week. I'm a believer.

Pick: Connecticut -3.5

Western Michigan (-9.5) at Rice

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Is the Houston heat going to be enough to stop Broc Lowry and company? I have my doubts.

Pick: Western Michigan -9.5

Nevada (-3.5) at Middle Tennessee State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

MTSU has allowed five rushing touchdowns in two games. Dominic Kelley has been a force for Nevada. The Pack won't need Carter Jones to win the game for them.

Pick: Nevada -3.5

Ohio at South Alabama (-6.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

What am I missing? I know that Bishop Davenport has the South Alabama offense playing well, but Ohio hung with Nebraska for three quarters and beat last year's Conference USA champion. I don't buy this.

Pick: Ohio +6.5

Georgia Southern at Jacksonville State (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Max Johnson has been in college since 2020, but Caden Creel is still the better player.

Pick: Jacksonville State -3.5

Michigan State at (3) Notre Dame (-29.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Wow, that's a lot of points. It's at least 1.5 too many. The Spartans won't come close to winning, but I don't see them getting shut out either. Say 38-13 or so.

Pick: Michigan State +29.5

(7) LSU (-3.5) at (8) Mississippi

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

This is the first time since 1962 that LSU and Mississippi have faced each other while both ranked in the Top 10. Even without the drama, this is a huge matchup.

Bettors are hammering LSU. Why? Because everyone knows that Sam Leavitt is playing. Lane Kiffin listed all three quarterbacks as doubtful on the depth chart Thursday morning. This isn't the first time Lane has done this, and it won't be the last.

As far as the shenanigans go, that's one of the more tame things of the week. Ole Miss filed a lawsuit against one of the players who left with Kiffin to LSU. Strange that they did it this week, huh?

When we finally do get down to football, I trust the Mississippi offense a little more. Leavitt has been careless with the ball when passing, even though he has been exceptional running the ball.

In the past 10 months, Lane Kiffin has:

- Left Ole Miss for LSU the day after the Egg Bowl
- Abandoned his 11-1 team right before the playoffs
- Threw a 2 hour temper tantrum when Keith Carter told him he wouldn't be coaching the playoffs
- Falsely claimed that the team begged… pic.twitter.com/jlVBrWBORU

— Sidelines - Ole Miss (@SSN_OleMiss) September 16, 2026

I only have one question: are the players as upset as the fans? If so, this could get ugly.

Pick: Mississippi +3.5

(11) BYU (-17.5) at Colorado State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

That's right. BYU is heading to Fort Collins for this one. This is the biggest game in Fort Collins in quite some time, and you know the fans are going to show up.

This feels like a trap game for BYU. I don't think the Cougars lose outright, but this feels high. Hauss Hejny has been exceptional in Jim Mora's offense.

Pick: Colorado State +17.5

New Mexico at (24) Oklahoma (-21.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This line has slipped a little. I do like New Mexico, but I feel like Oklahoma wants to prove something here.

Pick: Oklahoma -21.5

West Virginia at (25) Virginia (-10.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This is going to be a fun one. Michael Hawkins Jr. against the defense that ended the CJ Bailey hype before it even started. I'm a believer in that Virginia defense. I don't think West Virginia will be able to pass to win.

Pick: Virginia -10.5

Colorado at Northwestern (-3.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is a trendy upset pick, as evident by the lack of juice on Northwestern (-105). I just don't see it. Aidan Chiles has looked good, Caleb Komolafe has been a disappointment so far, but he could get going here.

Can’t get enough of the view from Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium ?#B1GFootball x @NUFBFamily pic.twitter.com/xwfyYBqBCf

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) August 12, 2024

And it's the last game in Martin Field, Northwestern's little palace by the lake. I don't think the Cats are losing this one.

Pick: Northwestern -3.5

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Maryland 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This is a good old Big East feud. This was never as heated as the Beltway Brawl, but it was a close series throughout its history.

Maryland has won both games since the Big East ended. I feel like that ends here. Ethan Grunkemeyer has quietly had a strong start to the season.

Pick: Virginia Tech -2.5

Kennesaw State at (15) Tennessee (-34.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Owls were embarrassed at home by Georgia State last week. It's going to be more of the same in Knoxville. At least they get to play in Neyland Stadium!

Pick: Tennessee -34.5

UTSA at (1) Texas (-29.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Do you still think these super-mega-big-ass conferences are a great idea? I'll present you with this: the top-ranked team and another top-5 team don't even get their games on TV. Indiana plays on Peacock and Texas is on SEC+. You have to pay more money to watch your team. Lame.

That's unfortunate, because this could be a good game. There may be a little letdown from Texas here.

Pick: UTSA +29.5

Arkansas State at TCU (-18.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Red Wolves are a wreck right now. It doesn't even matter if Jordan Dwyer plays or not.

Pick: TCU -18.5

UAB at Louisiana (-7.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Lunch Winfield and the Cajuns hung 30 points on USC at the Coliseum last week. UAB hanging around with Illinois doesn't look quite as intimidating now.

Still, I like what Alex Mortensen is building there in Birmingham. Ryder Burton has looked good, and the two-headed backfield of Rod Robinson II and Bam McReynolds is tough. This should stay within a touchdown.

Pick: UAB +7.5

Louisiana Tech at (8) LSU (-35.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

LSU beat Clemson by more than this. I don't expect them to let up, do you?

Pick: LSU -35.5

James Madison at San Diego State (-1.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Aztecs have been almost unbeatable at Snapdragon Stadium. James Madison scored 83 points last week. I don't care who you play...83 points!

Camden Coleman is enough of a threat as a passer that JMU can overcome that road crowd. Jayden Denegal can't throw to win.

Pick: James Madison +1.5

Northern Illinois at Arizona (-33.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I like the Arizona offense, even without Giovanni Richardson. Noah Fifita should be able to get this covered.

Pick: Arizona -33.5

North Dakota State (-26.5) at Sacramento State 

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Since the Hornets lost the opener to Eastern Michigan, there's a good chance that they won't win an FBS game this season.

Pick: North Dakota State -26.5

Purdue at UCLA (-14.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I don't really like the half, but UCLA has proven that they can close games out. They have been dominant in the fourth quarter of both games against better teams than Purdue. I have to think that the Bruins cover.

Pick: UCLA -14.5

Fresno State (-6.5) at San Jose State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Really? I feel like Luke Weaver will have a lot to say about this. Fresno got blanked by USC. The Spartans scored 26...

Pick: San Jose State +6.5

I only have two max bets this week and only six four-point bets. The first two weeks have scarred me on high bets. I did make up for it with 20 three-pointers and only seven minimum bets. Good luck out there!

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