RADIO
Mike's Week 1 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, September 3 and Friday, September 4, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
Week 0 gave us eight interesting games. We saw old faces in new places. Some fared better than others. We saw old faces in old places with predictably good results.
The appetizer is over. Now we get into the heart of college football. There are 91 games spread out over the next five days. Only 42 of those games feature FBS vs. FBS opponents. I only pick FBS vs. FBS games. The lines are too hard to nail down involving FCS teams, and many casinos/betting sites don't carry them anyway.
If you have questions about those games, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny. I will tell you a couple of games that I like, even though I will not assign a wager for them. Take South Dakota State +12.5. If you're feeling brave, the Tarleton State money line has good odds on most sites (+115). Indiana State +35.5 vs. Purdue is enticing as well.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 1
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I have been having issues finding the articles from 2019 and 2020, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but will omit 2019 and 2020 for now.
I came out 26 points ahead last year. Any year that you come out ahead is a good one. Unfortunately, I think I gave all of that back in Week 0. We'll check that after the picks for Thursday, September 2 and Friday, September 3.
Massachusetts at Rutgers (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wait a minute...this line is dropping? Sign me up! Antwan Raymond could run for 300 yards on the Minutemen if Rutgers leaves him in long enough.
Rutgers RB Antwan Raymond has a great blend of agility and contact balance
Should end up as a top 5 RB for me pic.twitter.com/ws7TmiYdFA
— Big Hank (@HankKnowsBall) April 29, 2026
UMass allowed 30 rushing touchdowns in 12 games. We're going to see a monster stat line out of Raymond in this one.
Pick: Rutgers -28.5
Akron at Wake Forest (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No, this isn't the game where an Akron season-ticket holder gets to call the plays on the first drive. It's a genius promotion for a school that was struggling to sell tickets, but it's also going to result in many of those seats staying empty.
Many people, including internet influencers, bought tickets and have no earthly idea where Akron is. Such is life in the MAC. That promotion is for Akron's home opener.
The funniest possible outcome of something like this is some Akron fan demanding a double reverse flea flicker that gets intercepted by Robert Morris for a picks six… and Akron losses the game by 6 points.
Let’s just say this promotion would never be run again. https://t.co/un1gNC7bfv
— Garrett Armbrust (@4thandsaturday) August 4, 2026
Reese Poffenbarger will likely start at QB for the Zips. He's the guy who lost his job at North Texas to some unknown named Drew Mestemaker last year. This is a solid get for the Zips.
Wake picked up North Carolina castoff Gio Lopez and reunited him with Rob Azell, who was his offensive coordinator at South Alabama in 2024. Do you remember that Gio Lopez? I sure do!
Just playing pitch and catch ?@lopezgio1 | @jamaalpritchett pic.twitter.com/VSJuEdygKt
— South Alabama Football ? (@SouthAlabamaFB) September 20, 2024
Akron is breaking in a new quarterback and a mostly new offensive line. I've heard people say that Wake has the best front seven in the ACC outside of Miami. This is going to get ugly.
Pick: Wake Forest -23.5
Colorado at Georgia Tech (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
These teams split a National Championship in 1990, but they never met on the gridiron until last year. Tech took that one 27-20 in Boulder. I expect another close matchup in this one.
Julian Lewis is entering his first full season as a starter for Colorado. Georgia Tech rebuilt the offense with Alberto Mendoza from Indiana at quarterback and Justice Haynes from Michigan at running back.
The interesting part about this line is that many casinos are offering this at even or plus odds. All of the juice is on Tech at 6.5. If you tease it to 7.5, you get plus money. Vegas is expecting another seven-point game.
In this instance, I'm inclined to tease it and take the plus odds. Colorado was torched on the ground last year to the tune of 222.5 yards per game. Tech ran for a staggering 320 on them.
Pick: Georgia Tech -6.5
UAB at Illinois (-27.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Ryder Burton was decent after taking over as the starting quarterback for UAB last year, but decent won't cut it against Illinois. I expect a big improvement out of the Blazers this year under Alex Mortensen, but we're not going to see it in Week 1.
Pick: Illinois -27.5
San Jose State at Eastern Michigan (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line has moved after Noah Kim's performance against Sacramento State in the opener. I was far more impressed with Luke Weaver against USC. Give me the Spartans, but this is going to be a fun one!
SCARY JERRY TD ?
? NBC#AllSpartans pic.twitter.com/3k5zklGCNZ
— San José State Football (@SanJoseStateFB) August 29, 2026
Pick: San Jose State +4.5
UTEP at (10) Oklahoma (-41.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UTEP went 2-10 last season. The only FBS team they beat was Sam Houston. Oklahoma is absolutely capable of covering this. I think they come out with something to prove.
TRENDING: John Mateer throws with some of the CRAZIEST HEAT you’ll see on a ball.
Mateer reportedly “worked with” Josh Hess (Josh Allen’s biomechanics coach) to improve his overall mechanics.
The Sooners QB has a DIFFERENT KIND of arm strength ??
(Via Brad Frazier/IG) pic.twitter.com/iYA5euDlnX
— Rookie Watch (@RookieWatxh) August 28, 2026
Pick: Oklahoma -41.5
Toledo at Michigan State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Toledo is a trendy pick here, but this is no longer Jason Candle's offense. He took a lot of pieces to UConn with him. I expect some growing pains out of Michigan State, but not enough to blow the cover.
Speaking of UConn, former UConn running back Cam Edwards is now in the Spartans' backfield. Michigan State should look much better this year.
Pick: Michigan State -9.5
(7) Miami (FL) (24.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. The last game on the West Coast for the Hurricanes was the Cal game in 2024, where Cam Ward (and maybe the officials) bailed out the Hurricanes to preserve the undefeated season at the time.
Overall, nearly every ACC team that has traveled out west for Cal or Stanford has struggled. Stanford looked good in the opener. They probably still lose convincingly, but I don't think Miami covers.
Pick: Stanford +24.5
Fresno State at (14) USC (-22.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
So, according to USC's fans on X, the only reason the Trojans faithful didn't show up against San Jose State was that it was hot. This is a night game. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised if as many Fresno fans showed up as USC fans.
We didn't see anything out of Jayden Mandal last year. From what I did see from him in 2024, he doesn't have the deep arm that Luke Weaver does. He was also picked off twice in nine pass attempts.
The Spartans didn't get to USC until garbage time, and it was behind the defense. I have my doubts as to whether Fresno can pull that off. I feel like this is an overcorrection for the Spartans going wild in the fourth quarter in Week 0. USC should stay on track in this one.
Pick: USC -22.5
CFB Betting Picks - Week 0 Results
I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad?
You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2021-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
North Carolina vs. TCU (-8.5) at Dublin, Ireland: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
It was a comedy of errors (and penalties) for TCU. Jeremy Payne looked good, but the rest of the offense, including the line, was a disaster. I have questions about the TCU linebackers as well. Jelani Thurman was getting open all game long at critical times.
Jelani Thurman vs TCU:
4 receptions 94 yards 23.5 ypc pic.twitter.com/S8SKPWMnYb— wok (@wokdior) August 29, 2026
San Jose State at (14) USC (-38.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
USC led this game 35-3 at the end of the third quarter. The fourth-quarter defense for the Trojans was a major disappointment.
North Carolina State at Virginia (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I was completely wrong about CJ Bailey. I know that Missouri transfer Beau Pribula had a great game, but the story of this one was the Virginia defense. They held the Pack to a miserable 168 yards of offense.
Jacksonville State at North Dakota State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know, I know. I'm from North Dakota. I should know better than to doubt the Bison (Bye-Zun).
Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Eastern Michigan run defense, which was a sore spot in 2025, was a strength here.
New Mexico State at Florida State (-30.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
At this point, Florida State fans are just hoping to get blown out by SMU and Alabama so that the school may finally fire Mike Norvell.
This was a miserable performance by the secondary. Brodie Malone-Bradford and TK King got open several times on this defense.
Hawaii at Stanford (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
There are bad beats. Then there are ones that just rip your heart out along with your wallet. This was the latter.
HAWAII +4 BETTORS..
WELCOME TO UTTER HELL ??? pic.twitter.com/xiMcMN795X
— br_betting (@br_betting) August 30, 2026
Memphis at UNLV (-4.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I'm glad Jackson Arnold still holds on to the ball as a teenage girl holds onto her first crush; otherwise, I would have been literally a zero in Week 0.
College Football Betting Season Results
This was the worst Week 0 I've ever had. I only got one of the eight picks right. The bad news is that the only one I got right was the one I didn't take out a betting slip on. Ouch!
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 1-0 (1-0) = 1
2. 0-1 (0-1) = -2
3. 0-3 (0-3) = -9
4. 0-2 (0-2) = -8
5. 0-1 (0-1) = -5
I lost 23 points, which is almost my entire bankroll from last season. I already need redemption in Week 1. The good news is that it can't really get any worse. Maybe it can. I was 0-11 picking Western Kentucky in 2017. Anything is possible...
More College Football Analysis
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