Overvalued Players for Fantasy Football: Draft Avoids and Busts for 2026

August 28, 2026

Thunder Dan's overvalued players for 2026 fantasy football leagues. His fantasy football draft avoids and potential busts, including De'Von Achane, Quinshon Judkins, and others.

It's usually pretty easy to find players that you like for the upcoming season and provide all the reasons why fantasy managers should draft those players. But writing about which players to fade can be a bit more challenging.

Don't get me wrong, there are certainly some things to like about the players that I'm going to recommend that you don't draft. There just aren't enough of them to like to justify taking them at their current market value. It doesn't mean that I don't appreciate the talent of these players, and I acknowledge they certainly still could have a good season for fantasy football. But you have to draw the line somewhere; we aren't drafting everyone. And sometimes which players you avoid (those nasty landmines) can be just as important as which players you draft.

There are going to be plenty of folks who disagree with me on some of these picks, and that's okay. You simply won't find these players on any of my rosters, and I'm comfortable completely fading them in my drafts this year. All ADP used is from Yahoo!

De'Von Achane, RB - Miami Dolphins

ADP: 15.6 (RB8)

Achane's value this season has been a bit of a lightning rod. I'm not the only analyst fading him this season, and I have noticed his ADP dip just a bit here in the last few weeks as drafters have pushed him down their boards in favor of guys like Saquon Barkley and Omarion Hampton.

And I think that's the right move. I'm just not sure I can invest such a valuable pick on a player who could be stuck in one of the worst offenses in football.

Proponents of taking Achane in the late-first or early-second round will point out has managed RB6 and RB5 finishes the last two years despite Miami finishing 25th in scoring both seasons. And yes, his ability as a receiver does give him a pretty solid floor, especially in PPR formats.

De’Von Achane is a special, SPECIAL talent, but he is likely to struggle to overcome this offensive environment.

Very low TD equity & Malik Willis will run a lot behind an awful offensive line.

It’s just simpler to avoid Achane this year, unfortunately. https://t.co/JQ8iqEkuPC

— Rob (@RobLorge) August 25, 2026

But as my friend Rob points out on X, this could be a historically bad Miami team. There's simply not a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line rated poorly last year and didn't make any big improvements. The wide receiver room is filled with rookies and retreads. We don't know if Bobby Slowik is any good at calling plays, and we certainly don't know if Malik Willis will be able to do enough to keep this offense on the field and sustain scoring drives.

Yes, Willis looked good in limited duty in Green Bay last year, but the talent drop-off in his supporting cast from Green Bay to Miami is drastic.

If you put Achane on even a mediocre roster (say like Atlanta, which is why we still like Bijan Robinson plenty), then he's worthy of a first-round pick. But I don't think the volume of guaranteed touches makes up for the poor team context surrounding Achane this year.

Jeremiyah Love, RB - Arizona Cardinals

ADP: 28.3 (RB13)

Can I just say "the same thing applies to Love here" that I already said about Achane and be done? No? Okay, I suppose this needs a bit more explanation anyway. It's never that simple!

Let's start with the fact that Love is nursing an ankle injury that he sustained in the first preseason game. He's not a lock for Week 1 and could be eased into action by a Cardinals team that is going to prioritize his health over winning this season.

Jeremiyah Love doing some ankle agility work with trainers ahead of practice pic.twitter.com/CEe4rGsNyw

— Theo Mackie (@theo_mackie) August 26, 2026

And that is the rub: this is not a team that is going to win many games this season or have any reason to press Love into a true bellcow role. I do expect this offense to be considerably better than Miami's, but Love has to contend with veterans Tyler Allgeier and James Conner for touches. Arizona may move Conner yet, with Bam Knight a capable third-team back, but they gave Allgeier a nice bag this offseason and I expect him to be involved.

Allgeier was a thorn in Bijan Robinson's side as a goal-line touch-stealer, and he could do the same thing to Love in Arizona.

And finally, we have to consider that Arizona, who will likely be underdogs every week, could be forced into a lot of pass-heavy game scripts.

The hype surrounding Love as a talent is well-founded, and he could be the next great back in the league at some point. But investing this type of draft capital in rookie running backs has not been a winning formula, and this price is simply too steep for me when you consider all the factors working against Love having the type of season that we're looking for from a RB1.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR - Carolina Panthers

ADP: 41.8 (WR17)

Let me reiterate that fading a player doesn't mean you don't like that player or think they're talented enough to produce. This is very much a fade based on ADP relative to other wide receivers in the same range as McMillan currently goes just ahead of Jaylen Waddle, Emeka Egbuka, and Ladd McConkey on Yahoo - all of whom should be the top target-earners on much better offenses this season.

For all the Tet truthers out there, I am well aware that he's lined up in the slot more this preseason, and I agree that could be a boon to his value. But this price is still too steep for me as I think Carolina is likely to be a bad offense again this year.

The quality of quarterback who's making the throws absolutely does matter, and I think we have seen enough of Bryce Young to say that "he is NOT Him."

Reminder that Bryce Young threw for UNDER 200 yards in 12 of 16 regular season games last season https://t.co/70lUyJv6iu

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 26, 2026

Young ranked 28th last season in EPA per dropback, and continues to struggle to read defenses and make the right throws. McMillan saw 122 targets last year, and that number should only go up in Year 2. However, his 57% catch rate was well below the league average of 62.5% and speaks to how many of those targets were uncatchable passes.

Carolina's offensive line is banged up to start the season, to top it off, which could force Young out of the pocket and off his primary read (which is going to be McMillan on a lot of plays). It's another situation where I like the player, but not the situation for this season. Our RotoBaller rankings agree, as we have him ranked at WR25. This range is loaded with some other good options at the position, and I'll continue the theme here of not wanting to invest any of my top four or five picks in potentially bad offenses.

Quinshon Judkins, RB - Cleveland Browns

ADP: 53.2 (RB22)

We love backs that see a ton of touches, but like De'Von Achane, Judkins could be a part of one of the worst offenses in football this season as the Browns have decided to go with Deshaun Watson at quarterback to start the year and will face an uphill battle to move the football weekly.

Unlike Achane, Judkins does NOT have 75 or more targets to fall back on for value. In fact, he was only targeted 36 times in 14 games, which comes out to an average of 2.5 targets per game. The Browns targeted Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford as pass-catchers a combined 72 times last year, and Todd Monken had a pretty clear distribution of labor among his backs in Baltimore. He fed Derrick Henry the early-down work and relied a lot on Justise Hill and others in the passing game (which is one reason why I like Sampson a lot as a late-round pick).

And despite handling 230 carries for Cleveland in his rookie season, Judkins was unable to crack the 1,000-yard mark, finishing with just 827 yards and a 3.6 yards-per-carry average. In his defense, he faced the highest rate of stacked boxes, as defenses loaded up to stop the run when playing the Browns. But that doesn't seem like it's likely to change this season unless Cleveland can establish some type of downfield passing game.

Quinshon Judkins - Preseason Week 1 - every touch pic.twitter.com/pDQSiLfZZA

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 17, 2026

The Browns have overhauled their offensive line, which was a bottom-three unit in 2025. However, I am not sure they improved it all that much. This offense could really struggle again this year, especially since the organization has decided to go with Deshuan Watson at quarterback, despite his poor performance in preseason and the bad vibes coming out of training camp. They've got rookie wide receivers and a lot more questions than answers.

I'd much rather have someone like David Montgomery or Bhayshul Tuten in the same ADP range, as both of those backs have a better shot at more receptions and touchdowns as they're attached to considerably better offenses.

Kyle Pitts Sr., TE - Atlanta Falcons

ADP: 72.9 (TE8)

Welcome to the tight end dead zone! I am not in favor of spending up at the tight end position this year, but if I do, I'd much rather go after guys like Colston Loveland, Tyler Warren, Sam LaPorta and Tucker Kraft in the tier above Pitts. Those guys are all off the board usually by the end of the fifth round, and then there are a few rounds where Harold Fannin Jr. (remember, Cleveland is going to be very bad...no thanks) and Pitts are the only players being drafted until you hit the George Kittle-Travis Kelce pairing.

Hasn't Pitts hurt you enough yet, people? You still keep coming back for more!

Yes, I am aware he scored the second-most points of any player at the position last season, but he still just finished at TE6 in points-per-game, and it was a historically bad year at the position with George Kittle, Sam LaPorta, and Brock Bowers all missing a significant number of games. He also saw more targets than usual as a product of Atlanta's top option, Drake London, missing five games.

And let's not forget that his season stats were boosted massively by one huge game in Week 15, in which he caught 11 passes for 166 yards and three touchdowns. So he helped you win that week, but if we take away that game, what were his per-game averages the other 16 weeks?

"Dad, what was 2025 Week 15 Kyle Pitts like?" pic.twitter.com/zFPbJABn2e

— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) July 28, 2026

4.8 receptions, 47.6 yards, 0.13 touchdowns. That's just 7.94 points per game in half-PPR leagues. Meh.

Pitts has been hyped up since his rookie campaign, yet he finished as TE14, TE22, TE17, and TE21 before finally "breaking out" last season.

Do we trust Tua Tagovailoa or Michael Penix Jr. enough as passers to invest in Pitts to repeat that performance this year? I don't. Heck, I think they should start the rookie Jack Strand who played Division II football over either of those dudes!

Carnell Tate, WR - Tennessee Titans

ADP: 80 (WR31)

Last, but not least, we have an exciting rookie out of the wide receiver factory that is Ohio State. The Titans took Tate with the fourth-overall pick to address the gaping hole in their wide receiver room, while also signing Wan'Dale Robinson to fill the role of the slot receiver in Brian Daboll's offense.

Robinson comes over from the Giants with Daboll and was targeted 131 times in New York. I think he's probably the receiver we should be more interested in, as Daboll's offense focused more on running the football and a fairly conservative passing game. It's tough to see Tate getting a lot of consistent targets while lining up outside, and the results this preseason have proven that true so far.

Lowest comp pct when targeted this preseason
(min. 5 targets)

Carnell Tate 0%
Charlie Jones 28.6%
Jacob Cowing 28.6%
Phillip Dorsett 30%
6 players tied 33.3% pic.twitter.com/6vmllMIBSv

— PFF (@PFF) August 24, 2026

Listen, I am not saying that I think Cam Ward is a bust by any means, but he looked pretty bad (as a lot of rookie QBs do) at times last season. He certainly hasn't looked great this preseason either, and not to sound redundant, but it matters not how talented a receiver is if the quarterback who is tasked with throwing them the football either can't make the right read or deliver a catchable ball.

We aren't getting a discount on Tate here either. If he was a last-round dart-throw type, it would be different. But Tate's ADP is in the same range as receivers such as Chris Godwin, Brian Thomas Jr., and DK Metcalf - all of whom have an established quarterback throwing them the football and a much better team context.

The future may still be very bright for Tate, but I think he'll struggle to be a consistent contributor for fantasy purposes in year one.

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