MLB Best Bets: Top Player Props & Novig Market Picks (Wednesday, 7/22/26)

July 22, 2026

Get Thunder Dan Palyo's top MLB best bets and player props for Wednesday, 7/22/26. Expert picks powered by the Novig betting exchange -- see today's highest-value plays. Win more with RotoBaller's expert betting advice.

We have a ton of baseball today as we get two doubleheaders on the docket! Boston and Baltimore will play two today, and so will the Yankees and Pirates, as they were rained out last night as well. I have seven total bets here for you to consider, and a whopping five of those all have plus odds right now on Novig! That's a lot of potential profit if we're right today!

If you're reading this, I'll assume you also bet on baseball regularly. Today's picks will all be using the odds on the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites -- Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig.

As always, make sure you're following RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy baseball and betting needs. Now, here are some of my favorite MLB bets and player props for Wednesday's games.

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other, without the "vig" typically associated with a sportsbook. The vig is the fee sportsbooks charge to use their services. It's a hidden cost in the odds offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, it is keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users -- the site keeps no commission.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures!

Novig operates with two virtual currencies. Novig coins can be wagered for fun and to test out strategies, while Novig cash can be wagered on all markets and then redeemed for real cash prizes.

Access to Novig is widespread; it's now accessible in 36 U.S. states.

How Does Novig Work?

Since users are not playing against the books, there is an opportunity to make more money per wager you win, and users can usually find better value on bets (in terms of the prices offered) than on traditional sportsbooks.

There are no oddsmakers; users dictate their own odds. You can either accept the odds the market offers or set your own odds. If you set your own odds, another user has to accept them on the other side for the bet to be activated. Users drive the market, not the sportsbook or oddsmakers!

NRFI (No Runs First Inning) Bets

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Miami Marlins at Houston Astros: UNDER 0.5 runs - 1st Inning Total (-117)

This is one of the later games today, but a pitching matchup that I am very much looking forward to watching. The Marlins have veteran Sandy Alcantara on the mound, while the Astros will counter with right-hander Peter Lambert.

Lambert has been a great story this year, finally finding his way as a big league pitcher and developing into a very reliable arm for Houston. He's been fantastic lately, and is sporting a perfect 16-0 record on NRFIs this season.

Peter Lambert, last three starts:

17.2 IP
1.02 ERA
0.79 WHIP
5 BB
23 K#ChaseTheFightpic.twitter.com/IwkTJwVj9U

— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) July 18, 2026

Alcantara is coming off three straight very strong starts in his own right, and is 9-1 on NRFIs over his last ten starts. With both pitchers in good form and Yordan Alvarez being the other superstar hitter likely to hit in the first frame, I love our chances at a clean first inning in this one, and I am a bit surprised that this bet isn't a bit more juiced towards the under.

MLB Team Totals

San Diego Padres over 4.5 runs (+111) at Atlanta Braves (Martin Perez)

Baseball season is full of streaks, and while the Padres were at one point one of the worst offenses in MLB, right now they are trending up in a big way. They've topped 4.5 runs in six of their last eight, which included a 19-run outburst against the Royals and another eight runs against the Braves last night.

Fernando Tatis Jr. with an absolute NO-DOUBTER 😳 pic.twitter.com/s991mgtqy9

— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2026

When we sort their results against left-handed starters, they've gone for five or more runs in six of their last seven. Martin Perez is a veteran gas can, so look for Tatis and Manny Machado to lead an offensive barrage for the Friars today in this one.

Texas Rangers over 4.5 runs (+113) vs. Chicago White Sox (Anthony Kay)

We are sticking with the hot bat narrative here with Texas. They put up 10 runs on the White Sox last night and have now scored five or more runs in six of their last nine games. They'll face a lefty on the mound in Anthony Kay, who is allowing 43% hard contact and a 12% Barrel% to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, Texas ranks first in MLB over the last two weeks in wRC+ against LHP (151).

MLB First 5 Innings Bets

Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners F5 UNDER 4.5 Runs (-111)

The Reds offense has cooled off considerably in Seattle so far in this series. It's always tough going from Coors Field back to sea level, but Seattle is a run-stymying environment with an elite park factor for pitchers and a team with, well, really good starting pitching!

The Reds have scored just four runs total in the first few games of this series and will face Emerson Hancock today. The Mariners have gone under 4.5 on the F5 in seven straight home starts by Hancock.

The Mariners also could struggle at the plate against Reds starter Brady Singer, who has been in solid form for over a month and is pitching at the highest level that he has this season.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive a $25 purchase match (50% off up to $25) on your first Novig purchase.

You also get six months of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

Prop Bet Picks

All odds are from Novig and were accurate as of 7:30 AM ET

Peter Lambert OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+141)

I mentioned how impressive Lambert has been earlier in the Houston-Miami NRFI, but I should also point out that he's been stacking up strikeouts in bunches, too. He is coming off a season-high 10 strikeouts against Baltimore and has six or more strikeouts in five of his last seven outings.

He's tougher on lefties in terms of his K% and the Miami lineup's biggest strikeout hitters all happen to be lefties, too. These odds are incredible, and I'm loading up on Lambert to keep his hot streak going here.

Christian Scott OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+100)

Scott has been rounding into form for the Mets and giving them a very solid second option on the bump behind Nolan McLean. He's starting to show the type of potential that made him a top prospect in the farm system just a few years ago before he had arm surgery.

Scott has six or more strikeouts in five of his last seven starts, and like Lambert, he's better against lefties (29% K) than righties. This Brewers team has been trending up in their K-rate to RHP lately, with six of the last seven starters to oppose them getting over the 5.5 prop line.

Jake Bennett OVER 17.5 Outs Recorded (+100)

Welcome back, Bennett! This is the prop that has been printing money for us now for several weeks, and we have at least one more opportunity to bet it at even money today! Bennett is in fantastic form right now, and picked up right where he left off before the break as he spun six shutout innings against a good Tampa offense in his last start.

He's now gone 6+ innings in five straight starts and faces a Baltimore offense that shouldn't scare anyone right now. He's not a strong enough strikeout pitcher to go after his K prop, but I trust his elite control and run prevention to get us across the finish line and cash this wager!

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