MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/30/2025)

July 30, 2025

Thunder Dan's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/30/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including

It's been a week or two since I've written our daily home run prop article here at RotoBaller, as I have been grinding those NRFI bets. But today's slate presents a ton of great opportunities for home run bets as we continue to have very hot, humid hitting conditions and some hitter-friendly ballparks on the slate.

I will provide my five favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than five home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 30, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/30/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, July 30:

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
• Andrew Vaughn, Milwaukee Brewers
• Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees
• Kyle Stowers, Miami Marlins
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 FanDuel)

We kick things off with a BvP special as Vlad Jr. has some impressive numbers against Baltimore pitcher Dean Kremer in his career. Guerrero owns a .355 batting average and five career home runs off Kremer, though I will also acknowledge that none of those have happened this season, as Kremer has only faced the Jays once this year, and that was back in March.

Still, things line up here pretty nicely. Kremer is a fly-ball-prone pitcher with just a 39% GB%, and Vlad Jr. excels against righties, walking as often as he strikes out and hitting 11 of his 15 bombs this season off righties.

We don't have the perfect winds in Baltimore as they appear to be blowing across the field instead of straight out, but it is going to be in the high 90s, and I would expect the offenses in this game to have the upper hand.

Andrew Vaughn OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings)

Let's go a little further off the grid with our next pick. Vaughn was a savvy acquisition by the Brew Crew earlier this season. He's provided some solid offense at depth for their lineup, and it's paying off right now as first baseman Rhys Hoskins is on the IL.

He's scorching at the dish right now, having clubbed three home runs and two doubles in his last four games while driving in nine runs. He was 3-4 yesterday with a home run and has homered in both games in this series.

Yet, we are still getting him at +400 odds against a left-handed pitcher who is coming off a very poor outing.

Shota Imanaga was roughed up by the White Sox in his last time out, allowing 12 hits and seven earned runs in just three innings. Imanaga gave up three home runs, which raised his season HR/9 mark to a woeful 1.62.

Imanaga is giving up a ton of fly balls. His 28.2% GB% is the lowest of any pitcher on the slate.

There's no weather enhancement here, as this game will be played in a dome in Milwaukee, but I like Vaughn's chances of staying hot against the struggling Imanaga.

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Giancarlo Stanton OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings)

Stanton was not in the lineup for the Yankees yesterday, much to the chagrin of Yankees fans. However, I suspect he will be back in the cleanup spot today when the Yankees face Tampa and righty Zack Littell.

Stanton has hit six of his seven home runs this season off righties and has mashed three of those dingers just in his last five games.

Most 113+ mph home runs since start of 2022, including playoffs;

Shohei Ohtani: 42
Aaron Judge: 35
Giancarlo Stanton: 27
Kyle Schwarber: 25 https://t.co/w4puq3Gvka

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 30, 2025

Littell has the worst HR/9 mark of any pitcher on today's slate at 1.82. He's allowed a whopping 26 long balls this year, and 14 of them to righties.

The icing on the cake is the projected temperature of 95 degrees at game time, with the wind blowing out to center around six mph. Stanton could hit one out of any park in the U.S. (including Yellowstone), but it never hurts to have a little help with weather-friendly conditions that could help a ball clear the wall that he's a little too far under.

Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450 DraftKings)

Alright, let's shift back to another hitter with really great odds, even though he's quietly having one of the best seasons of any left-handed power hitters in the league.

That's right, folks, Kyle Stowers is the TRUTH. The Marlins have found their cleanup hitter for the future, and we have a great matchup for him today as he'll face veteran Miles Mikolas of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Kyle Stowers: Top 5 hitter in Major League Baseball this season pic.twitter.com/bWoEw5cit1

— Just Baseball (@JustBB_Media) July 29, 2025

Stowers's numbers vs. RHP this season are impressive to say the least. He owns a .327 ISO, .632 SLG, and .425 wOBA against righties, and he comes into this game in great form, riding a seven-game hit streak with 10 home runs in July.

Mikolas could always troll us; he does that sometimes, but his numbers are bad. He's sporting a 1.5 HR/9, 90% Z-Contact%, and 12% Barrel%.

The wind is working against us in St. Louis, but only at five mph. The 95-degree temperatures and humidity should make up for that, however, as it's going to be crazy hot and humid at game time.

Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+180 DraftKings)

I usually don't like writing up a player under +200 odds, but Raleigh is in such a good spot that I can't help it today. He's facing lefty Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento, where balls have been flying out of the yard like crazy all season.

Springs has allowed 20 home runs this season, 17 of those to righties, and he's given up 11 of them at home. Raleigh has smashed LHP to the tune of a .445 ISO and .778 SLG!

Cal Raleigh is on pace to break Aaron Judge’s AL home run record 👀 pic.twitter.com/RjQgaaIRqH

— MLB (@MLB) July 28, 2025

We also have some elite weather conditions here as the wind is projected to be blowing out to left-center field as fast as 14 mph. Raleigh is a great bet to leave the yard as he continues to chase the AL record for homers. This is just too good a spot to pass up!

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