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Corbin's fantasy football rookie WR sleepers and draft targets for 2025. Corbin Young breaks down yards per route run for wide receivers Tre Harris, Emeka Egbuka, and Luther Burden III.
Draft capital matters for players. That's especially based on research for wide receivers going on Day 3 or undrafted. The hits have been low when attempting to find Day 3 prospects breaking out in Year 1. We're chasing outliers like Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown since 2021. That tells us it might be better to look at draft capital, team context, and the metrics for Day 1 or Day 2 prospects.
Though it's fun chasing sleepers, we'll need to invest in the middle rounds of redraft leagues for these three must-have rookie receivers. These three receivers stood out because of their landing spot, draft capital, and underlying data before looking at the redraft ADP. The tricky part is projecting these players from the college profiles into the NFL offenses.
We're using the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) ADP and dynasty market values from KeepTradeCut to provide perspective into different league contexts. There's value in building redraft rosters like dynasty ones because of the ongoing talent influx at various positions, which causes us to reevaluate each offseason. The examination process involves discussing their prospect profile, reviewing the highs and lows, and examining team fit.
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Emeka Egbuka (WR, TB)
FFPC Redraft ADP: WR48, 114.1 ADP
KeepTradeCut Dynasty Market: WR21
There's value in playing on an Ohio State team loaded with NFL talent like Egbuka. It has churned out wide receivers like Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Marvin Harrison Jr. Egbuka is the next in line to make a fantasy impact as a rookie in 2025. Though Egbuka's collegiate production never popped off the page, it should be adjusted when considering team competition.
In Egbuka's two most productive seasons, his sophomore and senior seasons, he had a Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt (RecYPTA) over 2.00. He played in the slot over 80 percent (81.1) of the time, likely showing us where he might fit in the NFL. Without draft capital, Egbuka's top comparisons include Phillip Dorsett, Kadarius Toney, Olave, Devin Smith, and Justin Jefferson since 2010.
As a primary slot receiver, Egbuka saw his average target depth fall over the past two seasons to around 8-9 yards after being over 10 as a sophomore. He averaged 2.51 yards per route against man and 2.29 versus zone coverage. Meanwhile, Egbuka posted a respectable 59.1 percent contested catch rate with 22 contested targets in 2024, the most of his career.
Sometimes contested targets can mean a receiver struggles with separation, but the flip side hints at the quarterback trusting a player to make plays in crucial situations. The Buccaneers receiver room has been stable, with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin coming off a season-ending ankle injury in 2024. Rookie Jalen McMillan posted a few spike weeks in the final games by averaging nearly 20 fantasy points (19.8 PPR) per game in Weeks 14-18.
Evans bested McMillan in target share (29 percent vs. 19 percent), air yards (40 percent vs. 24 percent), and receiving expected points (15.5 vs. 10.6) in Weeks 14-18. The opportunity metrics and expected fantasy points were solid for McMillan, but the seven touchdowns in five weeks boosted the fantasy points over expectation.
Early 2025 Outlook
Theoretically, Egbuka might be third or fourth on the depth chart among the team's top pass-catchers. There are paths for playing time if Godwin moves outside, and Egbuka earns the primary slot role. Or maybe Godwin or Evans deals with an injury early in the season, causing Egbuka and McMillan to step up in more impactful roles. The track record for first-round receivers in recent seasons has been relatively positive.
The 2024 first-round rookie receivers probably spoiled us, with Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers posting breakout seasons. Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy and Harrison were closer to a breakout (200 PPR). A more realistic outcome involves Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers from the 2023 class. Or, even his former teammate Smith-Njigba, buried behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The film evaluators have been higher on Egbuka than the spreadsheet (WR11), and he should make an impact in Year 1.
Luther Burden III (WR, CHI)
FFPC Redraft ADP: WR51, 118.5 ADP
KeepTradeCut Dynasty Market: WR33
After a breakout sophomore season, Burden was talked about as someone who could be one of the top receivers drafted in 2025. However, Burden's volume and efficiency regressed to respectable, not eye-popping numbers. Burden had a whopping 3.20 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt in 2023, falling to 1.80 in 2024. The yards per route numbers followed suit, with 3.29 in 2023 versus 2.32 in 2024.
Burden played in the slot over 80 percent of the time in 2023 (81.7 percent) and 2024 (85.3 percent). Interestingly, he was deployed mostly out wide in his first collegiate season at Missouri in 2022, playing wide on 85 percent of his snaps. Burden was known for those manufactured targets in the short areas and behind the line of scrimmage.
That's evident in Burden being one of 10 receiver prospects in 2025, with a short area and behind-the-line-of-scrimmage target rate of 25 percent or higher in each category. Burden and Savion Williams were the only receiving prospects drafted in the top three rounds, with the rest having Day 3 draft capital or later.
Though Burden posted a mediocre 6.10 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec), given the short target usage, he forced the highest rate of missed tackles among the 2025 class. His missed tackles forced per reception (MTF/Rec) suggest he made defenders miss on nearly 50 percent of his receptions (49.2 percent).
Burden's MTF/Rec and YAC/Rec align with the film and athleticism grades, leading to above-average speed scores (88th percentile) and freak scores (80th percentile). Some might be concerned after waiting for Rome Odunze to make a rookie impact. Odunze gave us three spike outings in 2024, with him reaching over 100 receiving yards in two (Week 3 and 9) and scoring a pair of touchdowns in the third (Week 14).
Early 2025 Outlook
The Bears didn't re-sign Keenan Allen, likely moving Burden into the slot role, with DJ Moore and Odunze playing mostly out wide. Burden theoretically bodes well and aligns with his skill set since he projects as the Bears slot receiver. There have been rumblings of the Bears possibly re-signing Allen, which would lower Burden's stock in the short term.
In 2024, the Lions under Ben Johnson had the second-highest EPA per dropback (EPA/DB), with the Bears at 27th. Meanwhile, the Lions ranked fifth in explosive pass rate (11.3 percent) versus the Bears at No. 27 (7 percent). Johnson's offensive system should impact the Bears by using more motion and play action. That's evident in the Lions using motion on 65.9 percent of their plays (No. 4) with the Bears at 47.9 percent (No. 19).
Furthermore, the Lions ranked first in play-action rate (35 percent), with the Bears toward the bottom, ranking 28th (17.8 percent) in 2024. Burden is one of the cheapest options in the Bears offense, so we'll want to prioritize him in the middle rounds, assuming he's their primary slot receiver.
Tre Harris (WR, LAC)
FFPC Redraft ADP: WR54, 131.1 ADP
KeepTradeCut Dynasty Market: WR44
Harris broke the system, with his 5.15 yards per route run and 3.78 Receiving Yards Per Team Pass Attempt in his final season at Ole Miss. He was uber-efficient in his first season with Ole Miss (2023) with 2.90 Receiving Yards Per Team Attempt and 3.17 yards per route run. Harris spent five seasons in college, so some have skepticism about his later breakout.
Harris was a beast against man and zone coverages, breaking the charts, especially versus man defenses. In March, we wrote about Harris as a yards per route run sleeper, and the landing spot boosts him. The Chargers ranked ninth in deep-throw percentage (passes of 20+ yards) and fourth in play-action rate (29 percent) last season.
That should bode well with Harris's skill set, though he interestingly saw a 21.1 percent deep target rate (No. 30) behind Burden. Meanwhile, Harris had the seventh-highest target rate in the short area of the field (47.4 percent). He can create yards after the catch, with the 10th-highest YAC/Rec (7.7) in the 2025 receiver rookie class.
The Chargers need a legitimate deep threat or a receiver with those skills to make explosive plays. For context, Josh Palmer (26.2 percent) and Quentin Johnston (22 percent) led the team in deep-target rate, with Ladd McConkey in third at 8 percent. Harris can fill the void and be an upgraded version.
Early 2025 Outlook
The Chargers hit on their 2024 second-round pick in McConkey. Can they hit on their second-round rookie in Harris? There's a chance Harris' rookie season finishes like Xavier Legette or Odunze, where they disappoint based on the draft capital and situation. However, Harris arguably landed on a better team with an improved offensive environment. We'll want a piece of the Chargers offense, and Harris' talent and situation should align for fantasy goodness.
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