The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who to Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 7)

May 12, 2025

The Cut List for Week 7 of 2025. Jamie analyzes potential fantasy baseball busts, overvalued players, and injured players who you may want to consider dropping.

Welcome back to The Cut List as we head into Week 7 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those unfamiliar, this is our weekly article examining players whom fantasy managers might consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who warrant a closer look.

We'll examine players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for potential replacements, and individuals on the hot seat who are worth holding onto ... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

As the season rolls on, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms, or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo). Maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Bowden Francis - SP/RP, Toronto Blue Jays - 36% rostered

Francis came to prominence in 2024 thanks to some stellar outings in the latter part of the year. Twice in the final few weeks of the season, Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. Twice, he gave up a home run to lead off the ninth inning.

For the 2nd time in 4 starts...Bowden Francis takes a no hitter to the 9th...it ends with a Francisco Linder home run to tie the game.

4 of his last 6 starts...he's allowed just 1 hit.

This is Dave Stieb type stuff.

— Tim Micallef (@tim_micallef) September 11, 2024

Hopes were high that Francis could take that late-season form into 2025. The early signs are not looking promising for Francis establishing himself as a mainstay of the Blue Jays rotation. After eight starts, he has a 2-5 W-L record, 5.30 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 30 Ks (41.2 IP).

Yesterday was one of Francis' better starts of the year. He failed to get a win but limited the Mariners to three runs on six hits and a walk (6.2 IP). On the flip side of that, it was the fourth consecutive start in which Francis allowed three or more earned runs.

What made Francis' performances last year all the more surprising was that he had never made a major league start before 2024. He made two starts to begin the campaign and yielded 12 earned runs (8.1 IP) before heading to the bullpen.

Francis had been a starter in the minor leagues, so it's not like he was converted from a reliever. But some signs pointed toward Francis regressing this year. His 4.17 xFIP and 3.88 SIERA in 2024 belied his 3.30 ERA. And Francis also had a .211 BABIP, which wasn't going to sustain.

What about this year? Well, Francis has a 4.58 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA. The biggest issue for Francis has been home runs. His 20.7% HR/FB is the third highest among the 84 qualified starters. That won't sustain, so we should expect Francis' ERA to come down a bit more.

Francis doesn't have overpowering stuff, and his 17.0% K% ranks in the 20th percentile. Given he had a 25.2% K% as a starter last year, we can expect more strikeouts from Francis moving forward. Even if his numbers do start to resemble expectations, we're still not looking at anything great.

Verdict: Things could go two ways. Either Francis continues to struggle and finds himself out of the rotation, or he gets back on track and puts together some solid outings. The problem is, even if we see the latter, he's not more than a streaming option in shallower leagues.

Brandon Lowe - 1B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays - 35% rostered

I'll be the first to admit I was hopeful of a big season from Lowe. The temporary move to George M. Steinbrenner Field had many salivating at the prospect of seeing something like we did in 2021. Then, Lowe hit 39 home runs in 149 games. Since 2021, Lowe has struggled to stay healthy.

Lowe played a total of 281 games over the last three seasons. He failed to play 110 games in any of them. When he's played, Lowe has been productive. He homered 50 times in those 281 games. His 162-game average between 2022-24 was 29 homers, 87 RBI, 84 runs, and seven steals.

He hit .234/.317/.440 with a 116 wRC+ in that time. Lowe's production when healthy wasn't the only reason for such optimism. As alluded to, the dimensions of George M. Steinbrenner Field are appealing given that they are identical to Yankee Stadium. We all know about the short porch and how hitter-friendly that is.

If we look at all of Lowe's extra-base hits since 2022 overlaid onto Yankee Stadium, we can see why playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field was so tantalizing. Lowe has failed to live up to the lofty expectations.

In 35 games, Lowe has hit .194/.243/.313 with five homers, 18 RBI, 13 runs, and one steal. Not dreadful, but the batting average is a significant drag on his overall value. The good news is that we can expect the batting average to climb. Lowe has a .251 xBA (expected batting average).

That alone isn't enough to carry Lowe into fantasy relevancy. He ranks 35th among second basemen and 36th among first basemen. Even if his batting average reaches his 2024 mark (when he hit .244), he'll need to tally more counting stats to get back into fantasy managers' good books.

While Lowe's batting average will improve, he still seldom faces left-handed pitching (LHP). Which isn't a bad thing, given his struggles against lefties. Lowe's history of injuries also leaves lingering doubt as to whether or not he can stay on the field all season.

Verdict: Health concerns, a lowly batting average, an underwhelming lineup around him, significant splits against RHP and LHP. There are just too many things going against Lowe. Without seeing something we haven't from him since 2021, Lowe is only a deep league option.

Hold For Now

Roki Sasaki - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - 92% rostered

Sasaki is a curious case. On the surface, his numbers were good before this week. If you expected much more after his first six weeks in MLB, you were always going to be disappointed. On Friday, Sasaki got tagged for five earned runs in four innings. That saw his ERA rise from 3.86 to 4.72.

On the season, Sasaki has a 1-1 W-L record, 4.72 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, and 24 Ks (34.1 IP). Not a stat line that would make a pitcher worth rostering. After being nursed into life in the majors, Sasaki had made four consecutive starts of at least 5.0 IP before getting knocked out of the game early on Friday.

If we look at some of Sasaki's numbers as the season has progressed, it was only a matter of time before regression hit.

In addition to his ERA regressing as expected, Sasaki's strikeout and walk numbers are disappointing. His 15.6% K% ranks in the 10th percentile, while his 14.3% BB% ranks in the fifth percentile. Sasaki's 1.3% K-BB% is the second worst among the 128 pitchers with at least 30.0 IP.

Leading up to this week, I had mentioned trading Sasaki away if you didn't want to hold onto him. His preseason hype still had some value. He had a sub-4.00 ERA and was being stretched out more. After Friday, that ship has sailed.

Now, I'd be looking to hang onto Sasaki. But the leash is a lot shorter. There is a transition process coming from overseas. But there's no knowing if Sasaki can turn things around soon or if this is a longer-term issue. If we see no signs of improvement soon, the waiver wire will be beckoning.

Jasson Dominguez - OF, New York Yankees - 55% rostered

Friday night saw Dominguez announce himself with a three-homer game. It was a performance that also rewarded his fantasy manager's patience. Given that Friday accounted for 60% of his home runs and 37% of his RBI, it isn't easy to use one game to justify holding onto Dominguez.

While the stat line on Friday will stand out, one thing that I was most interested in was that one of Dominguez's home runs came against a left-handed pitcher. If we look at his splits this year and as a major leaguer, you will see why that stood out more than it should.

Given what Dominguez has been doing against RHP, even if he had league-average numbers against lefties, his stat line would be eye-catching. Friday did at least help with that as the Yankees youngster now has five homers, 19 RBI, 21 runs, and three steals with a .250/.339/.463 slash line (33 games).

That helped to move Dominguez up the outfielder rankings, where he now sits in 42nd place. Enough to warrant rostering him. It isn't as clear-cut as that. But even before Friday, I'd have been suggesting holding onto Dominguez in all but shallow leagues. That remains the case.

In what has become a crowded outfield in the Bronx, Dominguez will still see plenty of playing time. The Yankees will get Trent Grisham in the lineup. Cody Bellinger will have the odd day off. And Aaron Judge will act as the designated hitter (DH) occasionally.

In daily lineup leagues, benching Dominguez when the Yankees face a lefty is the ideal play. But even in weekly leagues, it'll be rare for a side to face more than a couple of lefty starters in a week. Dominguez's MLB career can still be considered a small sample, so he should get better against southpaws.

As impressive as it was, don't base your decision-making solely on Friday's performance. Dominguez's numbers against RHP warrant holding onto the switch-hitting outfielder. With a hitter-friendly ballpark and potent lineup aiding him, Dominguez is someone I'd be holding onto.

On the Hot Seat

Anthony Santander - OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 90% rostered

Santander has been a cheap source of power in fantasy drafts for the last few years. After signing with the Toronto Blue Jays this offseason, the expectation was that he'd continue to provide power numbers for fantasy managers. That hasn't been the case in the early goings.

After 36 games, Santander has five homers, 16 RBI, 12 runs, and no steals while hitting .196/.275/.336. With a track record of consistent production, Santander is someone I'd just persevere with and anticipate his numbers improving as the weeks roll by.

If we look at Santander's numbers since 2022, his quality of contact numbers aren't dissimilar to recent years.

The only thing that Santander has struggled with is barreling the ball. His 4.6% Barrel% ranks in the 20th percentile. Santander has missed the last two games due to a shoulder issue. There hasn't been any word about a possible IL stint, and we do not know if this has been a problem for a while.

It would certainly help explain some struggles. But as we can see, Santander has still been hitting the ball hard this year. As well as hitting the ball hard, there is another reason I'm not too concerned about Santander's slow start. That's because it has been a feature of his in recent times.

At the end of May last year, Santander had a .211/.291/.421 slash line. He hit .247/.316/.546 the rest of the way. In 2023, April was Santander's worst month of the season. He hit .213/.280/.362 with a 76 wRC+. It's been a similar story throughout Santander's career.

Santander starts slowly and ends slowly. He's got a career 81 wRC+ in April and 81 wRC+ in September. Considering he has a career 111 wRC+ in the majors, you can work out how much better Santander is between May and August. That's something to cling to as he works his way through early struggles.

Although we can't quantify it, changing teams can have an impact on players. Santander may have stayed in the AL East, but he's calling a new city and a new country home. That may just amplify his slow starts like we've seen in recent times.

Santander is still projected to end the season with ~30 home runs. Assuming this is just another year where he takes time to get going, Santander should be able to reach that mark. We'll need to monitor the news on his shoulder. Providing it's nothing serious, holding onto Santander is the play.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread or over on the RotoBaller Discord chat rooms. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X and we'll endeavor to cover some requests each week.

Adley Rutschman - C, Baltimore Orioles - 97% rostered

I was out on Rutschman this year. That was largely due to a reluctance to pay the "catcher's premium" with most of the players at the position. However, I didn't expect Rutschman to struggle like he has. After 36 games, he's hitting .195/.295/.320 with four homers, 10 RBI, 16 runs, and no steals.

I wasn't willing to use a seventh-round pick on a catcher who was projected for ~20 home runs and a ~.255 batting average. But I would be willing to trade for Rutschman now, while his value is at its lowest. If we compare his 2023 Statcast Profile with this year, it will give an indication as to why.

While his expected numbers this year aren't quite as high as 2023, they're still very good. And considerably better than his actual numbers. Everything else is similar. In 2023, Rutschman hit .277/.374/.435 with 20 home runs, 80 RBI, 84 runs, and one stolen base.

Part of Rutschman's appeal is volume. And where he hits in the lineup. The Orioles have started Rutschman second or third in the lineup all year. He's also been used as the DH seven times. Providing those things don't change, there's no reason to believe Rutschman can't still have a solid 2025.

Adolis Garcia - OF, Texas Rangers - 82% rostered

Hopes that Garcia could return to his pre-2023 version haven't worked out so far. After 39 games, Garcia has five homers, 22 RBI, 11 runs, and four steals. He's hitting .219/.270/.380. If that slash line remains, Garcia will set career lows in all three categories over a full season.

On the plus side, Garcia is still tallying some solid counting stats. His 162-game pace is 21 homers, 91 RBI, 46 runs, and 17 steals. Last night was a perfect microcosm of his season so far. Garcia went to the plate five times; he struck out twice, failed to record a hit, but did tally two RBI.

Garcia leads the team in RBI, yet five of his teammates have scored more runs. It's somewhat indicative of a Rangers team that has struggled offensively all season. Only the Pirates (123) and Rockies (124) have scored fewer runs than the Rangers (134). A little help wouldn't go amiss.

Their early season struggles resulted in the Rangers parting ways with offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker. That may be a smokescreen, but a new voice might help get their bats working again. Garcia has gone 6-for-21 with a homer and seven RBI since Ecker's firing. Something to think about...

The Rangers have fired offensive coordinator Donnie Ecker and will address the hitting staff in the coming days.

The Rangers currently rank 25th in Batting AVG, 27th in OPS, and 29th in Runs scored. pic.twitter.com/BTmrOhBudb

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 4, 2025

The change in coaching makes Garcia and any Rangers hitter worth hanging onto for a little while longer, at least. Whichever way the Rangers proceed, they may identify something and help get Garcia and his teammates back on track. The good news is that it might not take much.

In Garcia's case, his underlying numbers are promising. He has a .246 xBA and .484 xSLG. Both are significantly better than his actual numbers. Garcia also ranks in the 79th percentile or better for average exit velocity (92.3 MPH), barrel% (15.2%), and hard-hit% (48.6%).

Fortune has not been on Garcia's side so far. His numbers should improve given how he's swinging the bat and his expected numbers. That alone would be enough to warrant holding onto him. So if new hitting coaches can help, too, Garcia might be a good "buy-low" target right now.

Gavin Williams - SP, Cleveland Guardians - 33% rostered

After a breakout 2023 campaign, Williams seemingly took a step back last year. In truth, most of his underlying numbers were similar or even better in 2024. So when Williams had a 2.08 ERA this spring (17.1 IP), fantasy managers were left believing a big year was possible.

That's not materialized. After eight starts, Williams has a 3-2 W-L record, 4.38 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 45 Ks (37.0 IP). Before you check, that WHIP isn't a typo. Williams has a 13.8% BB%, which ranks in the sixth percentile. He has great stuff. He just has little command of it.

Friday was Williams' best start of the year. He tossed five shutout innings against the Phillies, striking out eight. Williams only gave up four hits. But he also walked four batters and needed 98 pitches to get through the five innings. It was a seventh straight start in which Williams has walked more than one batter.

Williams' overall arsenal has a 103 Stuff+ rating, which ranks tied-28th among the 128 pitchers with at least 30.0 IP. His 86 Location+ rating is tied last. "Location+ is a count and pitch type adjusted judge of a pitcher's ability to put pitches in the right place."

What does that mean for his fantasy value? Williams is still worth rostering in deeper leagues. In shallower leagues, he's someone I'd only stream with the right matchup. The problem is knowing what the right matchup is, as Williams can walk his way into trouble at the blink of an eye.

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