ATC Projections: Starting Pitcher Fantasy Baseball Surprises and Concerns for 2025 Drafts

Corbin Young's starting pitcher (SP) fantasy baseball sleepers, busts based on 2025 ATC projections. His fantasy baseball pitcher targets and fades for drafts.

Using projections in the fantasy baseball draft process helps give us a baseline of numbers to build a balanced team. Roster construction becomes more challenging with deeper rosters. Though the ADP market pushes up pitchers in rotisserie, category, and points leagues, the projections suggest avoiding at their price. That's important because many positive pitcher surprises in ATC projections have been relievers or undervalued starters.

It leads to wondering if we should wait to take relievers and starting pitchers, considering the projections have fewer positive values for pitchers than hitters. As we covered last season in a previous article, we'll use the ATC projections to find potential values or fades as a starting point to examine deeper into these starting pitchers. 

Several top values go around the top 100 picks, but we found some options in the early, middle, and later rounds to consider targeting or fading. It allows us to dive deeper when the projections or spreadsheet filters lead to a player showing up negatively or positively.

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Positive Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees

ADP (NFBC): 101 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 63

Fried signed a massive free-agent deal with the Yankees for eight years and $218 million. He has a career ERA of 3.07, a 1.16 WHIP, and four seasons with 11 or more wins. While Fried's stuff doesn't pop off the page, he elicits a slightly above-average swinging strike rate at 11.8 percent in his career compared to 10.6 percent in 2024.

Fried's breaking pitches lead the arsenal, with a 14.1 percent swinging strike rate via the curve and 13.6 percent against the slider, similar to his career averages of around 14-15 percent. His breaking pitches generate elite levels of downward movement, aligning with the whiffs.

The changeup has historically been a pitch for whiffs, evidenced by a 15.6 percent swinging strike rate in his career. However, Fried's changeup swinging strike rate fell to 11.9 percent in 2024 after being around 18-19 percent in the previous two seasons. Thankfully, the results were still solid, with a .225 wOBA allowed in 2024.

ATC projects Fried to post a similar season to 2024, making him a potential value around pick 100. The Braves and Yankees ballpark have similar Statcast Park Factors for right-handed hitters (100). However, the Yankees' stadium is ridiculously favorable for righties (119 HR Park Factor) compared to the Braves (105 HR Park Factor).

Thankfully, as a groundball pitcher (58 percent) in 2024 and 53 percent in his career, Fried should be able to keep the home run rate lower, though it might rise in a new home.

Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants

ADP (NFBC): 101.6 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 66

We meet again with Webb, who landed here last season with a lower ADP after a similar season. Webb had another workhorse season, with over 200 innings, though his WHIP and xERA took a step backward.

He had a near-identical xERA (3.40) to his actual (3.47), but the WHIP went from 1.07 (2023) to 1.23 (2024). Furthermore, Webb's earned value went from $22 in 2023 to $9 in 2024, though FanGraphs gave him $8.4 in 12-team leagues and $18.5 in 15-teamers per ATC.

Most of Webb's skills remained similar, with a 33.9 percent ball rate (2024) versus a career average of 34.2 percent. We've seen a slight downtick in his swinging strike rate from 10.9 percent in 2022, 9.2 percent in 2023, and nine percent in 2024, though he typically doesn't succeed by eliciting whiffs.

Webb typically generates tons of groundballs, with a 56 percent rate in 2024 compared to a career average of 57 percent. He lowered his home run rate to a career low at seven percent in 2024, mainly via a low HR/FB against the sinker (2.7 percent) and slider (4.3 percent). However, one could question whether Webb's home run rate by pitch could be fluky.

Webb increased his sinker usage against right-handed hitters to a career-high 46.3 percent, leading to his best results (.244 wOBA, .278 xwOBA). Meanwhile, Webb lowered the changeup usage in 2024 to 37.2 percent, increased the sinker usage (34.2 percent), and added a cutter about five percent of the time.

Webb lowered the zone rate on the changeup in 2024 to a career-low 33.2 percent, leading to mixed results. That's evident by hitters chasing the changeup out of the zone 52 percent of the time (career best), though it led to a career-low swinging strike rate.

Theoretically, that should be fixable for Webb, with a hopeful mix of better results and more whiffs. That's especially true, considering Webb's changeup generates elite levels of downward movement. He consistently uses a lower arm angle, which is a potentially nasty pitch, leading us to expect more whiffs.

Webb being a value selection again in 2024 could be a trap. However, it's rare to find pitchers who could give us the volume of nearly 200 innings while possessing above-average skills past pick 50, let alone an ADP near pick 100.

Zach Eflin, SP, Baltimore Orioles

ADP (NFBC): 182 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 154

Initially, Sonny Gray popped in the spreadsheet with a 40-pick value via ATC Projections. However, that would give us three starting pitchers going around pick 100 to target. For Gray, it's mainly via his 3.07 xERA in 2024 compared to his actual ERA (3.84), with the best strikeout minus walk rate (24 percent) and swinging strike rate (13.9 percent) of his career.

Though the data points toward Gray having another potential solid season in 2025, Gray closed the 2024 season with right forearm flexor tendinitis. The latest report in late October states Gray will have a "normal" offseason, but one might question that after heading into his age 35 season.

With that, we're pivoting to Zach Eflin, who posted his second-straight season with 10 or more wins, a 3.50 to 3.60 ERA, with his two highest workloads of over 165 innings. Eflin's xERA of 3.99 from 2024 might have us pause. That's mainly from his swinging strike rate falling to 10.1 percent from 11.5 percent in 2023.

Eflin's control is near-elite, with a 32 percent ball rate in 2024 after 31 percent in 2023. That gives him a floor, but Eflin's swinging strike rates have been mediocre. His curveball still headlines his arsenal, with a 17 percent swinging strike rate, similar to his career average (16.6 percent). For context, that's over 3-4 percentage points above the league average via curveball swinging strike rate.

Eflin's curveball ranked eighth in swinging strike rate among pitchers who threw a curveball at least 400 times. The curveball (.315 wOBA) and the sweeper (.296 wOBA) are his two best pitches against right-handed hitters. However, he bumped up the sinker usage to 37.2 percent from 31.6 percent (2023), with fewer cutters (19.4 percent) in 2024 compared to 30.1 percent (2023).

Meanwhile, Eflin relies on the cutter the most against lefties (37.1 percent), with improved results in 2024. Last season, Eflin's cutter allowed a .242 wOBA (.279 xwOBA) against lefties coming off brutal outcomes in 2023 (.394 wOBA, .364 xwOBA).

Since Eflin's cutter movement profiles haven't changed, it's possibly location-related. Eflin located the cutter to lefties, down and inside the left-handed hitters in 2023, almost like a slider. However, Eflin shifted his cutter location to be more up in the zone versus lefties.

It shows that Eflin made concerted efforts to improve the cutter locations in 2024, giving him an additional fastball option to pair with the sinker since the four-seamer hasn't been a quality offering. Though Eflin isn't a massive value, he's worth targeting around pick 150.

Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Hunter Greene, SP, Cincinnati Reds

ADP (NFBC): 95.8 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 183

Maybe it's how we downloaded the ATC Projections, or maybe there's a bias against pitchers like Greene, with an injury history and gave us poor outcomes before 2024. Greene had quality ratios, with a career-best ERA (2.75) and WHIP (1.02), though his xERA (3.84) was over one run higher. That suggests Greene had luck factors in his favor.

Thankfully, Greene's skills remained above average and consistent, with an 18 percent strikeout minus walk rate and 13.8 percent swinging strike rate. He saw his home runs drop to a six percent HR/FB in 2024 compared to 12 percent in his career.

Greene's HR/FB against the four-seamer fell from 15.4 percent in 2023 to a career-low at 5.3 percent in 2024. He saw his slider drop to 10.7 percent in 2024 after a 15 percent HR/FB in 2023. Some would argue whether that's sustainable, especially since Greene pumps his four-seamer over 52 percent of the time against righties and over 57 percent versus lefties.

We want to examine the movement profiles when the results improve or change. Greene's induced vertical break on the four-seamer improved near the above-average range while losing two to three inches of arm-side fade. Unsurprisingly, Greene had more extension and a horizontal release point closer to the body's midline, aligning with the four-seamer's movement profile changes.

When we bake in some regression closer to Greene's xERA with the above-average skills, the ATC Projections suggest being cautious at his price. Based on Greene's xERA and skill metrics, he probably shouldn't be priced inside the top 100 picks. However, we saw some positive changes in 2024, hinting at better outcomes than the projections. Greene might be a pitcher we manually override in 2025.

Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Los Angeles Angels

ADP (NFBC): 152 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 202

Kikuchi crushed it in August and September, with a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 25.9 percent strikeout minus walk rate, and a 13.7 percent swinging strike rate in 60 innings. He earned $15.5 in the second half compared to $-3.6 in the first half in 12-team leagues. That aligns with the success in real-life and fantasy leagues, as seen below.

Kikuchi increased the slider usage and lowered the four-seamers in the second half of the season with the Astros. That's a concerted effort that led to improved results. Via the pitch-level data, Kikuchi's four-seamer looked mediocre, with a .320 wOBA (August 2024) and .296 wOBA (September 2024). However, the slider went from brutal to elite. That's evident in the visual below.

Besides Kikuchi's slider having better results after bumping up the usage in 2024, his four-seamer added induced vertical movement to 16.9 inches while losing nearly two inches of arm-side movement in 2024 compared to 2023.

Kikuchi lowered his walk rate to six to seven percent over the past two seasons. His ball rate supported the gains, with a 34.7 percent ball rate in 2024 compared to a 35.7 percent ball rate in 2023, similar to his career average (36 percent).

Kikuchi has been a pitcher where the xERA and skills tease us for better results coming soon. That's evident in Kikuchi's 3.47 xERA in 2024 compared to his 4.05 ERA, given the career-high strikeout minus walk rate with the second-highest swinging strike rate in 2024.

If Kikuchi can maintain his success with the Angels via the improved skills and pitch mix changes, fantasy managers might be willing to pay up for him as a top 150 pick in 2025. It's worth noting ATC Projections have one of the better-projected outcomes for Kikuchi, so highlight that when considering him.

MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals

ADP (NFBC): 198.6 (Since Jan. 20)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 310

Let's touch on Gore since he has one of the lower ADPs based on the starting pitchers with the higher Vol per ATC Projections, meaning the projections disagree. Gore increased his workload in 2024, with slight improvements in ERA but still a brutal WHIP. Gore's 3.90 ERA aligned with his xERA (3.96), meaning the skills supported the output.

The swinging-strike rate has gradually increased from 10.9 percent in 2022 to 12.5 percent in 2023 and 13 percent in 2024. However, Gore's WHIP challenges come from allowing a high hit rate, with a career average of 35 percent. Meanwhile, Gore's control is mediocre, with a 35.8 percent ball rate.

A pitcher like Gore giving us a WHIP of 1.40 or higher can destroy a team's ratios, though he could luck into a WHIP around 1.30 if the strikeout skills improve or maintain. That's especially true given his xWHIP (1.29) in 2024. Gore's curveball (14 percent) and slider's (16.9 percent) swinging strike rate typically headline his arsenal.

However, Gore threw the changeup more often at 12.4 percent, a career-high rate versus right-handed hitters. Gore's swinging strike rate jumped in 2024 to 22.4 percent, but the batted ball results were awful, evidenced by the .344 wOBA (.288 xwOBA).

The changeup's movement profile shifted by an inch or so in downward and horizontal movement, which isn't significant given the sample, so it's possibly location-related.

Gore threw his changeup more often in the zone, with a career-high zone rate of 36.8 percent. His changeup locations seemed more consistent with keeping the changeup low in the zone while generating whiffs, as seen in the visual below.

It's easier said than done for a pitcher to add a third or fourth effective pitch, especially when they mostly rely on their fastballs and multiple breaking pitches like Gore. Gore's four-seamer showed above-average levels of induced vertical break, which he peppers in the upper third of the zone.

While the four-seamer hasn't been a consistent option for whiffs or weak contact, the improved locations, plus swings and misses for the changeup, could be the wild card to override the projections, as the ADP suggests. It's worth taking a chance on Gore at his price, especially if you believe in the strikeout upside and changes continuing into 2025.

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