2025 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitcher Sleepers and Draft Values

February 18, 2025

Connelly's 2025 fantasy baseball draft sleepers for starting pitchers. These are some starting pitcher draft values given their current ADP and fantasy upside.

One key aspect of crafting a successful fantasy baseball roster is capitalizing on relative value throughout drafts, particularly towards the end of drafts.

There will always be high-impact starting pitchers who get called up or emerge out of nowhere during the season, but there are plenty of opportunities to get a head start on finding sleepers during drafts.

Let's take a look at four starting pitchers who could be considered fantasy baseball sleepers for 2025 drafts, either due to their relative draft value or simply because they aren't receiving enough attention in drafts.

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Eduardo Rodriguez, Arizona Diamondbacks

ADP: 533

This sleeper has the most questions to answer and carries considerable fantasy burnout. Eduardo Rodriguez was once a fantasy prospect and, while he has had periods of success, has never completely lived up to the hype. He missed a bunch of time during his first season with the Diamondbacks and posted poor numbers. Why do I think he could be a sleeper?

His current ADP is the main crux of it. E. Rod has never been amazing, but he owns a career 4.08 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 23.8% strikeout rate over 206 starts. That seems like a pitcher well worthy of a pick higher than 533. The Diamondbacks seemed to agree when they signed him to a four-year, $80 million contract in 2024.

Additionally, Rodriguez's team situation looks better heading into 2025. The D-backs' offense was one of the better ones in 2024. The team has a new ace in Corbin Burnes, and Jordan Montgomery (who I also think could be a 2025 fantasy sleeper) has fallen out of favor with the team.

Hopefully, Rodriguez should not have quite as much pressure on him now that he's healthy and the team has more top-tier pitching.

Rodriguez had a great 2023 season but couldn't carry his success into 2024 due to injury. He doesn't have as much upside as the other pitchers on this list, but it seems unrealistic to think that he is now fantasy irrelevant. I'll gladly take a pitcher backed by a strong offense with one of my last picks.

Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies

ADP: 392

Jesus Luzardo is currently a complete afterthought in fantasy drafts at pick 392. He posted a poor 5.00 ERA in 12 starts with the Marlins in 2024 before missing the rest of the season with a lumbar stress reaction. The former top prospect finds himself in the middle of a stacked Phillies lineup, making him a sleeper for me for 2025.

Luzardo's 2024 numbers were disappointing, although they came with a small sample size of just 12 starts and 66 2/3 IP. He also dealt with left elbow tightness at the beginning of the season, so his results were somewhat understandable. More importantly, his velocity was down from 2023 but was still above average at 95.2 MPH, and his secondary pitches were great.

Six starting pitchers had 2+ offerings with a 40+% whiff rate in 2024, min 200 pitches for each offering.

Blake Snell (3)
Tyler Glasnow
Jesús Luzardo
Reese Olson
Spencer Schwellenbach
Kyle Gibson pic.twitter.com/aeMZ9MAB0Y

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2025

The good thing is that Luzardo has shown that he can be a fantasy contributor before. He made 50 starts covering 279 IP between 2022-23 with a 3.48 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a 28.7% strikeout rate. Just last season, Luzardo was drafted inside the top 100 picks, given his promise and performance.

It's hard not to consider a player a sleeper who was being drafted inside the top 100 picks just last season but is now almost 300 spots lower. Luzardo needs to prove that he can get back to a semblance of his 2022-23 form, but the current risk of taking that chance is so low.

Jeffrey Springs, Athletics

ADP: 241

Jeffrey Springs' fantasy excitement has taken a hit for several reasons. The 32-year-old missed almost all of 2023 and the first half of 2024 with the Rays due to Tommy John surgery. Further, he will be pitching for the Athletics in a minor-league ballpark in 2025. Why do I still think he could be a fantasy sleeper?

First, Springs pitched well in 2024. His fastball did drop almost two MPH from 2023 to just 89.8 MPH. Still, he could pitch to a 3.27 ERA and a 26.1% strikeout rate while mixing in his changeup and slider frequently. Springs stopped throwing hard once he became a starter, so his lack of velocity does not deter me, and he could get a bit of it back as he continues to recover.

Second, Springs' new team context may not be as bad as it seems. The Rays are notorious for mixing and matching how they utilize their pitchers, leading to some short outings. Springs should serve as the solid No. 2 starter for the Athletics, so there is no reason to think they wouldn't treat him as such if he's healthy.

On the other side of the ball, the A's had a more productive offense than the Rays, who were one of baseball's worst offenses. Both the A's and the Rays will be playing their home games in minor league parks this season, so it's not as though Springs will be getting a park downgrade.

Springs may not have the fantasy appeal that he once did, but I think he still has the skills that garnered it. He is poised to hold a significant role with an A's team that could be more competitive than thought. As the 96th pitcher off the board with an ADP at the end of 12-team drafts, I will gladly take a shot on Springs.

Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins

ADP: 166

Our last pitcher is considered a sleeper, given his draft position compared to his ceiling. Sandy Alcantara has not pitched since 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. However, manager Clayton McCullough recently stated that the 29-year-old should be ready for Spring Training. How does Alcantara's current ADP of 166 make him a sleeper?

My straightforward rationale is that Alcantara has previously provided top-tier fantasy value but is being drafted as the 67th pitcher overall. Alcantara won the National League Cy Young Award in 2022 and owns a strong career 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 21.4% strikeout rate in his career.

He has also made at least 28 starts in each of his four full seasons, with a floor of 184 2/3 innings pitched. Of course, this was all in the past, and Alcantara hasn't pitched for a year and a half, which likely explains his ADP.

While there was an overall larger pool of serviceable fantasy SP last season, there were also more injuries to prominent players. The higher rate of attrition and lower innings workloads somewhat mitigate concerns for pitchers coming back from injury, especially one of Alcantara's caliber.

Could Marcus Stroman, Sandy Alcantara or Luis Castillo be traded this offseason?@jonmorosi provides some insight into the trade market for starting pitchers right now.#MLBNHotStove pic.twitter.com/IquVJ0oaui

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 8, 2025

Overall, Alcantara has shown to be a top fantasy starter but is being drafted as a middle-of-the-pack option. This upside, and the possibility of him getting out of Miami to a better team via trade, makes him a sleeper for me.

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