NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Week 4 Targets And Avoids (2024)

September 27, 2024

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season. Kevin's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids -- expert picks for survivor leagues.

Welcome to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season! There are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and futures bets that it's hard to decide what to do with all of these choices. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have them win, but you can't choose them again.

All season long, I'll bring you weekly survivor pool advice for NFL teams to target and teams to avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2024 NFL season. We're ready to preview Week 4 and get you through the early season weeks.

We're through three weeks of the NFL season and to say the survivor pool volatility is at an all-time high is a massive understatement. Nonetheless, we persist, so let's look at some teams to target and avoid for survivor pools in Week 4.

Implied Point Totals, Point Spreads, and Over/Under Totals for Week 4

For detailed Survivor League strategy, and tips to help you win your league, check out our "How to win your Survivor League" guide.

Before jumping into the picks for Week 4, it's helpful to get an overview of the slate with implied point totals, point spreads, and over/under totals from betting markets. All implied totals come courtesy of FantasyLabs each week.

Now, let's take a look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 4.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 4

New York Jets vs. DEN

Did the Broncos use up all of their mojo in upsetting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3? The Broncos head to the New York metro area to face the New York Jets, who have an extended rest after pummeling the New England Patriots 24-3.

The Jets have the second-highest point spread of any team as 7.5-point favorites at home with the Broncos having the second-lowest implied point total at 16 points.

Aaron Rodgers completed +9.5% of his passes over expected (77.1% completion percentage), his 2nd-highest CPOE in a game over the last three seasons.

Since 2016, Rodgers has never lost a game where he posted a CPOE of +9.5% or higher (16-0-1 record).

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/IePuSKcAY3

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 20, 2024

Aaron Rodgers and Co. looked great in their blowout win, and expecting Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix to pull another rabbit out of his hat against the Jets defense with mediocre wide receivers is a gargantuan task.

Not to mention, the Broncos' run game has not been that good so far through three games, which puts much more pressure on Nix to put the team on his back to perform.

The Jets do not have a lot of matchups to take them through the rest of the season, so this matchup against the Broncos is pretty juicy.

San Francisco 49ers vs. NE

On paper, this feels like a mismatch. But at some point, when you flip a quarter four times and it lands on tails each time, heads has to come up. Despite having a ton of injuries on the offensive side of the ball, the 49ers cannot be pleased with how they lost in Week 3 against the Rams.

San Francisco enters Week 4 as a whopping 10.5-point favorite at home against the Patriots, who have the lowest implied point total of the entire slate.

I can't imagine the Patriots being able to keep up with the 49ers offense no matter how depleted it is. The Rams had smart coaching and played great situational football to be able to eke out a win against the 49ers; the Patriots do not have that.

Most of the betting public and those left in survivor pools will select the 49ers as the heavy favorite. If you want to take the biggest favorite for the chance to survive in your pool, go with the 49ers.

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs. BUF

Two of the AFC's best clash in Baltimore as the Ravens host the Buffalo Bills. Both teams are coming off dominant performances in Week 3 as the Ravens imposed their will and ran over the Dallas Cowboys while the Bills trounced the Jacksonville Jaguars at home.

The home team Ravens are 2.5-point favorites and that's close enough to doubt selecting either team. The Bills have looked like the much better team of the two, as the Ravens lost to the Chiefs and Raiders before last week's first win.

Getting the obligatory points as the favorite seems like a nod to a team that's been elite in the past, but maybe doesn't accurately reflect the state of affairs for the Ravens as we head into Week 4. You couldn't pay me to select either team and there will be much better matchups to choose from later on in the season.

Arizona Cardinals vs. WAS

There's no doubt that two of the most exciting quarterbacks in the NFL both reside in this game with Kyler Murray and rookie Jayden Daniels.

The former spearheading a plucky bunch in Arizona, who have been much more competitive than anybody has given them credit for. The latter, who had his breakthrough moment on national television on "Monday Night Football" against the Bengals.

The Cardinals are hosting Washington as 3.5-point favorites and this game has the highest over/under of any game in Week 4.

Do you want to bet against one of these fantastic quarterbacks? I know I don't. It's a matchup that despite the spread, feels way closer. There's no discernable difference between the two to hang your hat on and make a solid stance for. Therefore, I'm avoiding this game like the plague and just watching the fireworks that should ensue.

JAYDEN DANIELS ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! 🤯😱

WHAT A THROW‼️

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/uHY7Qd397g

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) September 24, 2024

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