Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Target in Redraft Leagues (Part 2) - Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Brandin Cooks, Ja'Lynn Polk, more

August 9, 2024

Rob looks at fantasy football wide receiver draft values, sleepers and targets with appealing ADPs including Garrett Wilson, DeVonta Smith, Brandin Cooks, more.

There are more receivers to buy than ever before. With NFL offenses passing the ball upwards of 60% of the time and running 11-personnel (three receiver sets) consistently over 75% of the time, the receiver pool has never been deeper. With so many names and options, there is bound to be players who fall through the cracks. Some, may not necessarily fall through the cracks, but because of how many other great players there, a particular player may just end up being lower than their talent indicates.

It's a great time to be buying receivers, but the majority of fantasy leagues are catching onto this trend. Due to this, receiver are being drafted earlier and earlier. When it comes to fantasy football, deciphering who you do and do not want on your team is only half the battle. While we're always trying to figure out who is good and who isn't, a player's cost is equally, if not, more important. A great player could still be a sell if they're overpriced. In this second entry of this three-part series, we'll be identifying six more receivers fantasy managers should be targeting this season.

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Garrett Wilson: WR8, ADP 11

Wilson is a stud, and we'll get to that in a bit, but we're going to start with his quarterback play in New York because that's been the biggest thing holding him back. Zach Wilson and various other fill-ins have held Wilson back. While Wilson has the talent of a top-1o receiver, he's been unable even to approach that level of play because his quarterback play has been so dreadful. Below is a table that takes Rodgers’ worst statistical season in each passing category and compares that to the Jets’ QB room last year. Now, we get a glimpse at the kind of upgrade the very worst Aaron Rodgers has to offer. This should be fun.

As you can see, even if the Jets are getting the worst version of Rodgers, it still means 714 more yards and 14 more touchdowns. I want to emphasize that last part: 14 more touchdowns. For all the pass-catchers in New York, that is huge. Now, let’s assume that Rodgers can perform at a career-average rate. What would his season look like with the Jets' passing volume from 2023 compared to what the Jets got out of the quarterback position?

We’re talking about 36 more completions, 1,255 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 26 more touchdowns. Think about that! Honestly, think about that. It's insane. 1,255 more passing yards and 26 more passing touchdowns with an average Aaron Rodgers. Even if you want to say Rodgers is 40 years old and coming off a torn Achilles, he won't play like his career average. He's not going to be that good. 2022 was one of the worst versions of Rodgers we've seen in a long time. Again, he played with a broken thumb on his throwing hand and had little help. Still, let's say Rodgers has the same efficiency stats in 2024 as he did in 2022. How different would Rodgers look compared to what the Jets had last year at quarterback on the same volume?

We're still talking about 714 more yards and 18 more touchdowns. It can be hard to comprehend just how big of a difference Rodgers, almost any version of Rodgers, is compared to what Wilson has been dealing with the past two seasons. Last year, Wilson's expected half-PPR PPG average was 13.9, which ranked ninth-highest. However, his 10.3 half-PPR PPG ranked as the WR36. His negative 3.6 half-PPR PPG difference between his expected and actual PPG difference was the second-worst among receivers and the worst among receivers with at least 100 targets.

Highest team pass rates inside the 10-yard line

If this continues to be the approach in New York, why can't Garrett Wilson lead the league in TDs? pic.twitter.com/yYbpOcTOCP

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 26, 2024

Last year, Wilson had a 46% air-yard share, first among receivers. He was ninth in target share (27.2%) and fifth in first-read target share (37.2%). The tweet above shows just how pass-heavy the Jets were inside the 10-yard line. Those numbers indicate what kind of upside Wilson possesses if the quarterback play improves. Wilson has the potential to break through and finish as a top-five receiver. That potential is there. Wilson is a buy for fantasy managers this season.

A.J. Brown: WR6, ADP 9 and DeVonta Smith: WR23, ADP 37

Fantasy managers should be very interested in and excited about both of these players. As we've already discussed under Hurts, Kellen Moore's offense has been much more pass-heavy and pass-centric than what we've come to expect from Philadelphia's offenses over the past few years. From 2019-2022, Prescott averaged 36.9 attempts, 287.8 yards, and 2.0 touchdowns per game under Moore.

With Moore moving to the Chargers this past season, Justin Herbert averaged 36.6 attempts, 253.2 yards, and 1.7 touchdowns per game. From 2021-2023, Hurts has averaged 30.4 attempts, 227.7 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns per game. Those numbers speak for themselves. We've already mentioned how Moore's offense should be more up-tempo, which is another positive, but these aren't the only good things that Moore brings to the table for these receivers. Check this out...

The league average red zone pass rate over the past three seasons is 51%.

Kellen Moore's rate is 55%.

Philly's rate is 36%. Next-lowest is Chicago at 42%.

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 29, 2024

We've already established that fantasy managers should expect more overall plays from the Philadelphia offense under Moore. Brown and Smith should also have more pass attempts, increasing their target volume, naturally increasing their yardage potential. On top of that, however, their scoring opportunities should also increase.

As you can see from the tweet above, Moore's offenses have been much more pass-heavy inside the red zone compared to how Philly has operated in recent seasons. Moore's offenses have passed 55% of the time in the red zone in the past three years. Philly is at 36%. Not surprisingly, that's led to way more passing touchdowns. Moore's offenses have scored 60% of their touchdowns via the pass, while there's been no Philly offense over the past three years to score 50% of their touchdowns via the air. So, here's what we have so far:

• More overall plays
• Faster tempo
• More passing volume
• More passing yardage
• More passing touchdowns

Check, check, and check. It's hard to imagine this getting even better, but it does. Pre-snap motion can create a lot of easy looks for quarterbacks and receivers. In fact, over the past three seasons, wide receiver motion routs have been worth more than 50% more fantasy points than non-motion receiver routes. That's insane, but it shouldn't be surprising. Last year, the top teams in pre-snap motion were the Dolphins (Tyreek Hill), 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), Rams (Puka Nacua), Chiefs (Travis Kelce), Chargers (Keenan Allen), Texans (Nico Collins), and Bears (D.J. Moore).

Moore's offenses have used pre-snap motion 48% of the time when passing over the past five years, up from an NFL average of 41%.

In 2023, the Chargers ranked fifth in pre-snap motion rate (58%). The Eagles ranked 30th.

Here's why this is so important⤵️https://t.co/eGyGjR1EW4

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 23, 2024

In 2022, Lamb averaged 8.92 targets, 6.33 receptions, 81.58 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game in the 12 games that Prescott started. Those per-game stats put him on pace for 152 targets, 108 receptions, 1,387, and 10 touchdowns. He averaged 15.26 half-PPR PPG, which would have been WR7. Last year, Keenan Allen had 150 targets, 108 receptions, 1,243 yards, and seven touchdowns in 13 games, putting him on pace for 196 targets, 141 receptions, 1,625 yards, and nine touchdowns. He averaged 17.3 half-PPR PPG, finishing as the WR3. Both of these receivers primarily operated out of the slot. Allen ran 59% of his routes from the slot last season, and Lamb was 62% in 2022. Whoever gets the Lamb/Allen role in Moore's offense for Philly will have a fantastic season.

A.J. Brown could be THE WR1 if Eagles fully implement Kellen Moore offense.

Eagles ranks last year v. Moore

Dropback rate over expected: 19, 5
Plays per minute over expected: 20, 1
Motion %: 29, 2

Motion routes worth 55% more than non-motion in fantasy points last 3 years. pic.twitter.com/RoJwoCP5AI

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) July 1, 2024

Last season, AJB was in the slot for 24% of his routes, and Smith was there for 31%. In 2022, AJB ran 26% of his routes from the slot, and Smith was at 25%. In the past few seasons, Smith has the higher yard-per-route run average from the slot, but AJB is far more deadly after the catch. The most likely outcome is that both players get a chance to play that role, which sets them both up for a fantastic season. While I don't believe this is actionable, it certainly is interesting. In 2022, from Weeks 10-17, AJB averaged 14.4 half-PPR PPG. During that same period, Smith averaged 15.1 half-PPR PPG. Edge, Smith. This past season, from Weeks 10-17, Smith averaged 12.7 half-PPR PPG, and Brown was at 9.6 half-PPR PPG.

If anything, that should tell fantasy managers that Smith is an excellent value at his WR23 price tag. He's certainly someone to buy, but so is AJB. Moore's offense should bring a wealth of upside to these two pass-catchers that we haven't seen over the past two seasons. Both of these players are well-positioned to outplay their current positional rankings.

Brandin Cooks: WR59, ADP 136

In his first season with Dallas, he finished last season as the WR44 with an 8.9 half-PPR PPG average. Considering his current price of WR59, he looks like a pretty good bargain right off the bat. Like Lamb, Cooks was much better following the team's Week 7 bye. From Weeks 8-17, Cooks' half-PPR PPG average increased to 10.8. Calvin Ridley and Jordan Addison averaged 10.8 half-PPR PPG last year. That would've been good for WR28 on the season.

In Weeks 1-6, Cooks averaged 4.6 targets, 2.6 receptions, 21.8 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns per game. These poor numbers could be explained by the low passing volume Dallas was utilizing and the fact that he was in his first games with a new team, new offense, new system, and new quarterback. For the remaining 12 games, Cooks averaged 5.5 targets, 3.9 receptions, 49.6 yards, and 0.58 touchdowns per game. Those per-game averages would have equated to 94 targets, 66 receptions, 843 yards, and 10 touchdowns. We may see an increase for Cooks in his second season with Dallas.

"The connection between Brandin Cooks and Dak Prescott stood out most. It was a solid rapport last year at this time, but it was obvious during OTAs and minicamp that the two now have a full year working together."

(Cooks ranked 14th among WRs in PPR points from Week 10 on last…

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 19, 2024

The touchdowns weren't much of a fluke, either, if that's what you think. For the 2023 season, Cooks finished 24th among receivers with 25 red zone targets and tied for fourth with 17 end zone targets. As you can see below, Cooks was a quality player for fantasy managers in the second half of the season. In 10 games (not counting Week 18), Cooks finished as a top 24 receiver five times and scored 12.0 or more half-PPR PPG in five contests. If the image below is the kind of production we can expect to receive from Cooks in 2024, his current price tag of WR59 is an absolute steal.

The Dallas offense looked completely different following their Week 7 bye week. From Weeks 1-6, Dallas' pass rate was 57.9%, ranked 27th. They had their Week 7 bye and operated an utterly different offense the rest of the season. From Week 8 until their playoff loss, the Cowboys' pass rate rose to 67%. What did that look like for Prescott? In Weeks 1-6, he averaged 31.7 pass attempts and 222.2 passing yards per game. Over the final 12 games of their season, Prescott averaged 38.3 pass attempts and 298.8 passing yards per game. His passing touchdown per game average increased from 1.5 in Weeks 1-6 to 2.75 for the remainder of the season. If we extrapolate his final 12 games, Prescott would have finished with 5,080 yards and 47 touchdowns.

That change in offensive operations directly correlated with Cooks' fantasy production. Cooks will now be in his second season with the Cowboys and fully assimilated to the offense. Him and Prescott will be on the same page and have better chemistry. We should also be expecting the Cowboys' offense to look the same way it did after the break, which means we'll get 17 games worth of that incredibly pass-heavy offensive attack as opposed to just 10.

Ja'Lynn Polk: WR71, ADP 169 and Javon Baker: WR92, ADP 231

Be prepared to embrace the unknown fully. We have two rookie receivers, a rookie quarterback, and a brand-new offensive coordinator. However, we cannot ignore affordability and potential. Polk is being drafted as the WR71, and Baker is at WR92.

We know nothing about Drake Maye, Polk, or Baker as NFL players, but we know a little about Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots’ new offensive coordinator, as previously discussed. His passing offenses have averaged 554 pass attempts, 3,554 yards, and 23 touchdowns. He had one good year from Baker Mayfield, one bad year from Mayfield, and then a combination of Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and P.J. Walker. He’s never really had good quarterback play, but he’s still been able to generate average offenses.

The main selling point for Baker and Polk is simple: What if they’re good? What if Maye is good? What if Maye is really good? We won’t know the answer to those questions anytime soon, but we should embrace that possibility and that unknown. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick for a reason. Does that guarantee success? It doesn’t, but we’re still discussing a good prospect. He was highly productive in North Carolina, and if the No. 3 overall pick ends up being good or even really good, will anyone be surprised? Absolutely not! At least, they shouldn’t be.

Last season, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Pharaoh Brown, Ty Montgomery II, and Kayshon Boutte combined to have 408 targets, 261 receptions, 2,532 yards, and 16 touchdowns. How many of those players are good? How many are average? How many are below average? How many are bad?

There is just so much opportunity in New England this season. Both rookies will have the chance to become Maye’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Polk would be my preferred target simply due to his NFL Draft capital. He was selected early in the second round, whereas Baker wasn’t picked until the 10th pick of Round 4.

However, both players are free, so why not roll the dice? What if Maye is better than we thought, and Polk is good, too? Or what if Maye is good and Baker is, too? Embrace the unknown. We may not know anything about these two receivers as NFL players yet, but we're not entirely in the dark. Polk's Reception Perception Profile had plenty of positives, precisely this:

"You get a good glimpse of Polk playing many different roles in college. He took 60.6% of his sampled snaps outside but traveled into the slot for a healthy 35.8% and was in the backfield as a pre-snap motion option for 3.6%. He was on the line for 52.9% of his snaps and off the line for 47.1%. Polk has the necessary success rates to project him to those multiple roles. His 68.5% success rate vs. man isn’t eye-popping but it’s in a reasonable range. You can say the same for his 69.2% success rate vs. press. Polk doesn’t have the early burst in his routes to gain easy quick separation, but he has good build-up speed that gets him open against man coverage. Those are the types of scores you want to see if you need him to hack it outside occasionally in the pros. Where Polk really shines is against zone coverage. Hsi 83.5% success rate vs. zone beats out several prospects projected to go higher than him in late April. In fact, among receivers sampled from this class, only his teammate Rome Odunze has a better success rate vs. zone coverage. I love the way Polk diagnoses zones. He works leverages well and knows when to bend routes over a hole in the zone or cross over a defender in the middle of the field. That build-up speed mentioned above sneaks up on defenders and he can rip up downfield coverage unexpectedly."

In his final season at Washington, Polk racked up 108 targets, 69 receptions, 1,159 yards, and nine touchdowns. He ran 41% of his routes from the slot and 59% out wide, displaying good versatility and the ability to win from multiple positions. He finished the year with an average of 2.29 yards per route run and averaged 5.2 yards after contact per reception. Out of 126 receivers with at least 75 targets, Polk finished:

• 29th in targets (108)
• 39th in receptions (69)
• 15th in yards (1,159)
• 21st in touchdowns (9)
• 23rd in yards per reception (16.8)
• 33rd in contested catch percentage (54.2%)
• 32nd in missed tackles forced (15)
• 28th in first downs (45)

You can see Polk and Baker's Reception Perception charting in the tweet below. Both players had highly productive senior seasons and received positive film analysis from Reception Perception. Polk received the better draft capital, but there are plenty of reasons for fantasy managers to buy both players, especially at their depressed prices.

The New England Patriots drafted two WRs I ranked as “priority Day 2” options this year in Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.

Both had some strong indicators in their #ReceptionPerception profiles and should complement each other from a skill-set and deployment perspective. I like… pic.twitter.com/ZW2NaS5gk8

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 27, 2024

As for Baker, Matt Harmon had plenty of good things to say about him, as you can see below. Based on their glowing Reception Perception and quality advanced statistics from their collegiate careers, it seems likely that one of these two receivers will hit. The better bet is on Polk, given his draft capital. The only thing fantasy managers need is to pick the right one, and for Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is to be good. Certainly doesn't seem so far-fetched.

"His success rate vs. man and zone coverage scores are even more impressive when you see he ran a nine route on an absurd 35.6% of his sampled routes. That’s wild. The vast majority of prospects charted this past season were below 20%. Baker was used as a clear downfield threat and still showed out well in terms of separating at all levels. Baker’s 78.3% success vs. press is the most impressive note from his profile. He didn’t see nearly the volume of attempts as some of the top prospects in the class but still, he ranks third behind Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. in success rate vs. press. When that was the assignment, he executed with precision. Baker’s success rates on the vertical routes like the post, nine, corner and out route were excellent. I’m confident in his ability to translate into a viable vertical weapon early in his NFL career. He shows he can stack defenders on the outside and snap off routes at the stem to earn space deep. He also tracks the ball well down the field and works with erratic vertical passers. He saw a contested target on 34.9% of his sampled looks and hauled in nearly 70%. Those weren’t easy chances, either, given how he was deployed."

Baker only had 84 targets in his final season but finished with 1,139 yards. His 21.9-yard-per-reception average led the country among 126 receivers with at least 75 targets. His PFF receiving grade was 84.3, ranking 21st. Baker ran 73% of his routes out wide, and it's a good bet that he will start the season as New England's X receiver. Polk will likely be the flanker, and Douglas in the slot. Baker averaged 7.2 yards after the catch per reception, the 21st best in this sample, and his 3.21-yard-per-route run average was the eighth-highest. Maye's gunslinger attitude could mesh really well with Baker's downfield abilities. Baker recorded a 7.84 RAS (relative athletic score) but has good size at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds. Polk, on the other hand, tested as an exceptional athlete. He posted an 8.78 RAS.

while it’s unlikely there will be a “This Year’s Houston Texans” Team…

there is ONE team that fits the criteria

[ Highly Drafted Rookie Quarterback ]
[ Unestablished Receiving Weapons ]
[ New Coaching Staff ]

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS pic.twitter.com/kU3inbNzRV

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) June 28, 2024

Both of these players are essentially free. Both of these players are expected to play a lot of snaps for the Patriots. There's a pathway to either one of them being New England's No. 1 receivers. There's a good chance they could finish as the No. 1 and No. 2 receiver for the team. Fantasy managers are associating the 2023 New England offense with the 2024 New England offense, but the 2024 one is completely unknown. What if Maye is good? What if Polk is good? Shouldn't that be the expectation given their draft capital and collegiate careers? Lean into the unknown. Their prices take into consideration all of the risk.

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