Fantasy Football Wide Receivers to Target in Redraft Leagues (Part 1) - Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Rashee Rice, more

August 8, 2024

Rob looks at fantasy football wide receiver draft values, sleepers and targets with appealing ADPs including Cooper Kupp, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, more.

With the evolving NFL game, the receiver position has become more and more important in fantasy football. In recent years, especially in 2024, we've seen a surge in ADPs for receivers. They're climbing up draft boards and are being selected earlier and earlier. Due to that, it has become more challenging to find good values, but not impossible. This article will focus on several receivers fantasy managers should be buying this season at cost.

This will be a multiple-part series where we'll be identifying multiple receivers that fantasy managers should be targeting. In this first edition, six receivers present good value to drafters this season. These six receivers can be found up and down the draft board. Some are drafted in the third round, others not until the 12th round. Value can be found anywhere if you're willing to look hard enough.

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Cooper Kupp: WR21, ADP 36

Puka Nacua had arguably the best rookie season of all time. He had 160 targets, 105 receptions, 1,486 yards, and six touchdowns. He finished with a 26.8% target share, which shows elite target-earning talent. The fantasy football perception became that this was Nacua's world, and the other Los Angeles pass-catchers lived in it. That isn't entirely true. That's not to say Nacua wasn't the No. 1 receiver or that he won't be in 2024; he absolutely will be. However, Kupp was closer to Nacua's production than fantasy managers may remember. Kupp played in 12 games last season but logged just 27% of the snaps in one of those contests, leaving the game early. Looking at the other 11 other games, the splits between Kupp and Nacua are much closer than perceived.

The table above shows that Nacua was the No. 1 receiver, but it's incredibly close. He was more efficient regarding yards per reception, yards per target, and yards per route run. In the end, he had a slightly higher half-PPR PPG average, but considering how close their numbers are, their ADP doesn't reflect that.

Some of that stems from Nacua entering his second season and Kupp being another year older, and that's a fair argument. However, it should be noted that since 2018 (six seasons), Sean McVay has had two receivers finish in the top 20 in half-PPR PPG three times, 50% of the time. He also had two receivers in the top 15 in half-PPR PPG average twice. This is what makes Kupp so appealing at his current ADP. This article here shows why I'm targeting Kupp this season.

#Rams ranks in total WR PPR points under Sean McVay:

2017 - 4th
2018 - 4th
2019 - 4th
2020 - 12th
2021 - 1st
2022 - 16th
2023 - 3rd

Another mark in favor of Demarcus Robinson as a late-round target imo.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) June 4, 2024

The Rams are lacking any quality options behind these two superstars. Tyler Higbee, the team's longtime tight end, suffered a torn ACL late in 2023 and will likely miss a good chunk of the 2024 season. Given that the next best pass-catcher behind these two is Demarcus Robinson, who has never had more than any of the following statistics in any of his eight seasons—75 targets, 50 receptions, and 475 yards—Kupp and Nacua will be heavily targeted. This duo could handle upward of 55% of the team's targets, an incredible amount of volume.

More about Rams WR Puka Nacua now being week-to-week with a knee injury that he suffered Sunday:https://t.co/LKv5C1LCfX

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 5, 2024

Reports indicate Kupp has had a fantastic offseason and is "all the way back." Along with the excellent Kupp news, Nacua has hurt his knee, which is now week to week. While it's not expected to impact his Week 1 availability, if Nacua is not 100%, it could benefit Kupp and make him an even bigger focal point of the offense.

Chris Godwin: WR33, ADP 63

Last year, 14 receivers had at least 120 targets, 15 red-zone targets, and seven targets inside the 10-yard line. 11 of those 14 scored six or more touchdowns. The average number of touchdowns scored was 7.7. Godwin scored just two, the fewest of the 14 who qualified. Adam Thielen and Garrett Wilson were the only other receivers who met these criteria but failed to score at least six touchdowns. The Panthers threw 13 touchdowns. The Jets threw 11. The Buccaneers threw 28.

Godwin finished 19th in targets (123), 15th in receptions (83), 23rd in yards (1,024), 24th in red-zone targets (25), 18th in end-zone targets (10), but 68th in touchdowns (two). Godwin finished as the WR39 with a 9.7 half-PPR PPG average. However, his expected half-PPR PPG average was 10.4, ranked as the WR29. Godwin’s expected touchdowns were 6.2, giving him the worst touchdown differential among any receivers last season at -4.2.

Baker Mayfield and Chris Godwin connected for a TD on just *1* of their 10 end zone targets last season — tied for the lowest TD rate of any qualified WR.

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 8, 2024

From Weeks 14 through Tampa Bay’s playoff loss in the Divisional Round (seven games), Godwin had a higher target share than Evans and per-game averages in targets, receptions, and yards. Godwin’s slot rate last year was just 37.1%. In 2022, it was 73.0%; in 2021, it was 70.4%. The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, has repeatedly verified that Godwin will return to the slot role this season. That’s great news for his fantasy prospects.

Chris Godwin is officially back in the slot🔥

PPG finish vs. Slot snap % (via @rotounderworld):
2023: WR38 / 32.1%
2022: WR14 / 57.6%
2021: WR9 / 57.5%
2020: WR15 / 55.8%

Screaming value at ADP WR34. pic.twitter.com/SMVA3tLCX5

— Victoria (@ffb_victoria) July 25, 2024

With better touchdown luck and a move back to the slot, Godwin is in a terrific position to provide fantasy managers with a lot of positive value at his current price.

Diontae Johnson: WR38, ADP 78

Despite Carolina hiring Dave Canales and Young's draft status as the former first-round pick, fantasy managers don't seem to be buying into the team's passing game. However, Thielen finished as the WR25 last year with an 11.1 half-PPR PPG average. This is despite Young being a rookie, Thielen being 33, and the team firing its head coach midway through the season. If Thielen could finish as the WR25 in that environment, why can't Johnson repeat the feat in a far more fantasy-friendly situation? Johnson has only gone over 1,000 yards once in his five-year career, but he's long been held back by poor quarterback play and poor coaching. That doesn't change the fact that Johnson is a terrific receiver capable of separating at all three levels.

Johnson has been a favorite of Reception Perception for years, and you can read his 2023 profile here. Due to his size, he is sometimes viewed as a slot receiver, but that isn't the case. The Steelers have used him as their X-receiver for most of his career until this past year when George Pickens emerged as a capable alternative. Johnson can win from any position, at any level, on any route. Here is what Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had to say about him:

"Now, the Panthers are about to welcome one of the NFL’s best separators. Diontae Johnson’s success rates from 2023 were just further confirmation of that fact. With a 75.2% score in 2023, Johnson has hit or cleared 75% success rate vs. man coverage in all five of his NFL seasons. He’s been a top-two finisher multiple seasons in success rate vs. zone coverage and turned in another sterling mark last year. His 78.3% success rate vs. press coverage was the second-best mark of his career. This player remains at the top of the league in terms of getting open. As you can see from his route charts, Johnson gets open at all three field levels, clearing the NFL average success rate on every pattern."

Based on Carolina's depth chart, Johnson will operate as Carolina's alpha receiver. He's their best receiver and one of the league's best target-earning receivers. This past season, he had a 23.5% target share in an injury-plagued season. Despite not being 100%, he still had the 23rd-highest target share in the league. In 2022, his target share was 27.0% (13th-highest); in 2021, it was 28.5% (fourth-highest).

Last year, despite catching passes from Kenny Pickett, competing with another potential No. 1 target in Pickens, and having his offensive coordinator (Matt Canada) fired for incompetence, Johnson still finished as the WR41 with a 9.2 half-PPR PPG average. His expected average was 10.3 PPG, WR32. His entire environment has improved, and his positional ranking is just WR38. Considering Johnson’s talent level, he’s an easy buy this offseason at his current price.

Rashee Rice: WR39, ADP 80

Fantasy managers have likely taken the concerns regarding a possible (likely) Rice suspension too far. From Week 12 to the Super Bowl, Rice averaged 13.7 half-PPR PPG. In those 10 games, Rice had 89 targets, 69 receptions, 780 yards, and four touchdowns. Using his per-game averages from these 10 contests, Rice was on pace for 159 targets, 117 receptions, 1,326 yards, and seven touchdowns. His 13.7 half-PPR PPG average would have placed him as the WR13 for the 2023 season. From Weeks 12-17, Rice finished as the weekly WR4, WR26, WR12, WR10, WR38, and WR16.

Once we get into the seventh round, how many players possess the kind of upside that Rice displayed over the final 10 games of the Chiefs’ season? The answer is not many. While I think it’s fair to expect a four to eight-game suspension, likely landing around six, the seventh round often consists of your flex-level players. Such a player can easily be replaced with later picks or waiver wire additions. In that sense, waiting for Rice’s top-20 upside for six games is easy.

prior to 2023, only SIX Rookies had posted a 25%+ Target Rate and 2.25+ Yards per Route Run on 200+ Routes

ALL have posted a 14+ PPG Season

and ALL but Chris Olave have posted a 16+ PPG Season

in 2024, Rashee Rice did it…

and you can now BUY for CHEAP pic.twitter.com/y2pmSFqgxj

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) June 7, 2024

Rice is the lone receiver who was on the offense last season. He's the only receiver with an already established chemistry and rapport with Mahomes. With each passing day, it seems more and more likely that Rice's suspension won't come this season. It could be similar to Alvin Kamara's situation. The NFL has stated they want to wait until legal proceedings are completed. That is unlikely to happen during this NFL calendar season. It's quite possible his suspension doesn't come until 2025, which allows fantasy managers to draft a top-15 receiver in the seventh round.

Joshua Palmer: WR58, ADP 135

Mike Williams tore his ACL in Week 3 and missed the rest of the season. Palmer missed Weeks 9-14 and Week 17, so he played 10 games last season. In seven of those, he operated as the No. 2 starter opposite Keenan Allen. Including Week 3, when Williams tore his ACL midway through the game, Palmer had 55 targets, 34 receptions, and 564 yards in those eight games.

If we extrapolate these per-game averages across 17 games, Palmer would have finished with 117 targets, 72 receptions, and 1,198 yards. Herbert also missed three of those seven games. He averaged 10.5 half-PPR PPG during these contests, which would have been the WR32, tied with Zay Flowers last season. Palmer had just one week in those eight contests where he finished lower than his current receiver ranking. He finished as a top-40 receiver in six out of eight games, which included two weeks where he finished as the WR11. For the remaining two weeks, he was WR78, which came in Week 8 in a game he left early and would miss Weeks 9-14 and be WR46 in Week 16.

In Weeks 3-18, Palmer had an 18.2% target share. In Weeks 15-18, when Allen was out of the lineup, Palmer's target share increased to 19.6%. That was without Herbert. If we anticipate the Chargers' pass attempts per game average dropping to 33, which would have ranked 22nd last season, and give Palmer a 20% target share, he will finish with 113 targets.

Since 2021, Joshua Palmer is averaging 11.9 PPR PPG with either Keenan Allen or Mike Williams sidelined. That would have been good for WR39 last season.

Allen and Williams (and Ekeler and Everett) are gone. Palmer is currently being drafted as WR52.

— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) July 22, 2024

From 2022-2023, there were 10 games that Keenan Allen missed. Palmer averaged 7.7 targets, 4.9 receptions, and 58.9 yards per game in those games. That equals 131 targets, 83 receptions, and 1,001 yards over 17 games. From 2022-2023, Mike Williams missed 11 games. Palmer averaged 7.6 targets, 4.8 receptions, and 69.4 yards per game in those games. Those averages equate to 130 targets, 82 receptions, and 1,181 yards over 17 games. From 2022-2023, there have been five games where Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were out of the lineup. Taking Palmer's per-game averages from these contests and extrapolating them over 17 games, he'd finish with 136 targets, 88 receptions, and 1,204 yards. Maybe Palmer is good, but he's just stuck behind two better receivers.

Given the lack of quality or known pass-catchers behind Palmer, he could flirt with a 22% target share. That would mean 123 targets. Palmer's career yards per target average is 7.8. With 123 targets, he'd finish with 963 yards. In 2023, he averaged 9.5 yards per target, equaling 1,169 yards on 123 targets. Palmer is unlikely to be a league winner, meaning a top-20 finish, but he could certainly be a top-36 receiver and a WR3, which would be a solid return on a WR58 investment.

Josh Downs: WR60, ADP 142

Despite being a third-round pick, Downs immediately showed he can play at the NFL level. That showcased itself in the numbers, stats, and film study. We’ll start by looking at the numbers and comparing him to another rookie receiver from last season, who we’ll leave unnamed, who went at WR34 compared to Downs at WR60.

As you can see from the table above, Downs performed a little better in some areas and a little worse in others, but for the most part, these players were nearly identical. That unnamed rookie is Jayden Reed of the Green Bay Packers. Reed does provide some value on the ground for fantasy purposes, but it’s wild just how different their ADPs are when their numbers are so similar.

Reed did catch eight touchdowns compared to Downs’ two, which explains the difference in their half-PPR PPG average (11.4 to 7.2). However, considering their target share and targets per game, should we expect that difference in touchdowns to continue? Reed benefited from Christian Watson’s absence, and Downs was negatively affected by quarterback injuries.

With Richardson and Downs entering their second seasons and Richardson being healthy, we should expect even better play from this team’s passing attack. Not to mention, the entire offense will be in the second season under Shane Steichen. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on Downs, but another is his film study.

Above, you can see his Reception Perception route tree success chart. You can read his full-season review here. However, as you can see from the chart above, Downs was incredibly successful at creating separation and getting open. An improved passing offense will only help Downs take advantage of his talents. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Downs:

“Downs was one of the best separators in the league last season. His 77.5% success rate vs. man coverage is by far the best note in his profile. That mark falls at the 93rd percentile. His success rate vs. zone is also fantastic at 82.5%. Downs diagnoses zone coverage extremely well, but it’s that man coverage score along with his 72.7% success rate vs. press coverage that pushes him beyond the normal slot boundaries. Downs can line up against a physical corner and devastate him with an explosive lower body and a series of well-refined moves. He’s a trusty target who was open at just an unreal clip last season. The nuance in his route running and juice as a player is an excellent combination for a reliable player who can also drop the hammer of a big-play. Last but not least, Downs just has excellent hands. He was the best contested catch receiver in the 2023 NFL Draft class, size be damned. That followed him to the league where he won 72.7% of his contested targets (18.3% of sampled targets). Across his full RP sample, he dropped just one pass. Downs brings a pair of vise grip hands to the table.”

Last year, as you can see from the tweet below, Downs was much closer to Pittman's production than most will realize. That's because Downs is extremely talented. While Pittman is viewed as a top-20 receiver this season, Downs is not even in the top 50. However, if you look at the numbers below from last year, in Downs' rookie season no less, it becomes clear just how much of a buy Downs is. This is closer to a 1A and 1B than it is to a No. 1 and No. 2 receiver situation.

Michael Pittman and Josh Downs were on the field together for 424 routes in 2023. The gap in their production while sharing the field was closer than you might realize.

Targets
108 - Pittman
88 - Downs

Receiving yards
824 - Pittman
727 - Downs

PPR points
165.4 - Pittman
145.7…

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) May 31, 2024

Downs is a ridiculously good value this season. He's a full-time starter, going into his second season, and is locked into a full-time role. Fantasy managers should be all over him. If Anthony Richardson takes the next step, Downs could be a huge win.

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