RADIO
The golfing world is in chaos. Scottie Scheffler is walking down fairways like Omar from The Wire. He is armed and dangerous and is taking no prisoners right now after being one on Friday morning of the PGA Championship. I want to say that is the last time I will use that instance as joke material, but it would be like telling you I am never going to three putt again.
The US Open at the iconic and seriously treacherous Pinehurst No. 2 will be played there for the fourth time since 1999 when Payne Stewart beat Phil Mickelson by holing a 15-footer on the final hole for par. He would tragically pass away in an airplane accident and leave the world with one less eccentrically dressed American golfer, dad, father, and friend. A truly incredible sequence of events that makes this week's venue just that much more special, with the likes of Justin Rose honoring Payne by mimicking his celebration, holing a similar putt on the 18th hole to finish T12 in '14. With Father's Day on Sunday, what emotionally charged story will we witness in five days' time?
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
What Are We Expecting This Week?
This is a fascinating situation as Pinehurst No.2 is going to be playing dry and crispy while progressively getting more difficult as the course bakes out in the hot North Carolina 90-degree heat the next few days. Finding fairways will be essential to avoiding unnecessary drops from gorge bushes that could cause unplayable lies. Once in the fairways, about 60% of shots will come from 175+, which will make hitting greens treacherous from this distance even when in the fairway. Never mind the random areas in which balls will be landing off the fairway.
Once golfers get to the green, there is about a 50/50 shot they are chipping or putting with GIR% rates much lower here in the past, making it imperative that golfers on our card can get up and down repeatedly without burning their metaphorical candle wick up prior to Sunday. For those that struggle around the greens, 15+ feet for par will be a common occurrence, burning that wick quick. Well-rounded golfers, particularly those who have thrived on and around the greens in past majors, will be the order of the day for us.
Collin Morikawa won the PGA with his best prior major finish being 35th, while Wyndham Clark essentially won last year's US Open after a made cut as his best finish. It is definitely the least predictive of the four majors, as the Masters and the Open both sit around an 80% success rate when it comes to runners-up in prior majors winning that event. The 80% threshold for the US Open is at 10th or better, leaving us with 63 golfers of the 120 with major experience finishing T10 or better at some point since 2018. This is a complete lottery of a major while also having to deal with the World No. 1 looking to win his second major of the year and his sixth event of the season (in 9 starts) at +300. But we are going to try and find a winner anyway (please see bankroll management paragraph in outright section)
With Scottie Scheffler in the field, we are going to be betting a lot of our golfers with 3 or 5 places each way, hoping that if Scottie continues his ridiculous run, we are not entirely boxed out of the event. We will also be betting Scheffler in the placement market, as we have done most of this year quite successfully! Ideally, Scottie somehow doesn't win, and we sneak through a winner this week.
Outrights
We are only betting $10.69 on outrights, with an additional $9.31 on each way / top 5s. If we hit a winner we only make somewhere between $55 and $60 total profit for the outright/t5/t3 market. I am VERY honest and transparent about my betting philosophy, and despite hitting 8 2nd place finishes this year, I know that betting outrights is not my best market, hence the additional funding to the each-way market, which has been helpful to our bankroll through this barren stretch of outright losers each week. We have found fortune in the placement market this year and will continue to distribute our funding to the most profitable part of our betting portfolio.
(PS: 99% of the outright community is likely losing $$$ as Scottie winning 5 times has made hitting the other weeks paramount. I am sure we were all expecting Peter Malnati, Matthieu Pavon, and Chris Kirk to win tournaments this year and then just check out for the rest of the year)
Collin Morikawa $3.46 x2 +2000 @ Bet365 (3 places each way)
We are microwaving Morikawa's ball striking while the delicious short game he is serving up continues to bring back those hungry for an outright NOT in the 3-1 range (Scottie...). His meal ticket on tour has always been his exceptional iron play, mixed in with a driver that is trending towards top 5 accuracy in the world again while maintaining tour average distance. In my post below, I took a look under the long iron hood of Collin Morikawa's long iron play that has regressed below tour average across multiple metrics, wondering why he is 51st (was 71st last week) on tour in SG App, which is a stark contrast to how he started his career (ranking of 2nd 2019-2020, 1st, 3rd and 2nd) on approach.
HOWEVER, he is now back with his coach, Rick Sessinghaus, who he left last year after the Ryder Cup. The reason we are calling him a microwaveable meal is because we know that the elite baseline talent is there, but it just takes 60 seconds of Sessinghaus to warm that all back up. In his last three starts, "Microwawa" has only lost on approach in 1 of his 12 rounds, notching finishes of T4 (PGA), 4th (Charles Schwab), and a runner-up at the Memorial last week. If that iron play continues to trend towards past performances when he averaged over 2 strokes on approach per round five times last year we are in for a treat. He has zero of those so far this year, while Scottie Scheffler's SG APP average is weekly, outperforming Morikawa's best. LoL, read that again!
Collin Morikawa used to be an elite iron player ... what has happened that he ranks 52nd in approach on the PGA Tour?
Once an absolute sniper from 200, his strokes gained and proximity to the hole from that distance has seen immense regression over the last 2 years.
Proximity… pic.twitter.com/CBJyvCPtMi
— Byron Lindeque (@TheModelManiac) April 4, 2024
But, what we most fancy about Collin, is the fact the two-time major champ is averaging more top-5s in majors than anybody in the field, cashing T5s in both majors this year after nothing better than a 10th place in 2023. The fascinating thing about Morikawa is that his strokes gained in chipping and putting in majors jumps 50 spots from his 2023 average (76th & 86th) vs his major baseline of 25th for both metrics. The short game seems to be that scorching piece of meat that you can mix into the pasta to warm up the few noodles that weren't quite up to temperature. Maybe at this year's US Open, Collin can turn into a gambling goldilocks and serve us up a win, juuuuuuust right!
Brooks Koepka $2.78 x2 +2500 @ Bet365 (5 places each way)
Brooks has not been playing well, but he is arguably the most decorated major golfer of our generation (post-Tiger). Since 2017, Brooks has EIGHT top 2 finishes, which include four wins. We had Brooks on our card at the PGA Championship, but the easy scoring conditions likely switched off the part of his brain that engages with challenging major conditions that have him evolving into the golfing equivalent of the Hulk. At this number, we are getting five career majors at +500 a pop, while Scheffler's quota would be +150 for each of his green jackets. The more difficult the challenge, the more difficult it is to leave Mr. Major off our card at these kinds of prices, and if Scottie stumbles this week, Brooks should be looking for his sixth major, placing him alongside the likes of Lee Trevino, Nick Faldo, and Phil Mickelson all with only 11 golfers in the history of the game, with more wins than them. Go grab greatness, Brooks!
Cameron Smith $1.74 x2 +4000 @ Bet365 (5 places each way)
If you are a regular reader of this article, you will full well know that every time Cam Smith won on the PGA Tour in 2022, we were on him. Without him on our betting cards each week, times have been tough. Smith entered the week at 40-1, with numbers drifting towards the 50s at some books. We will address the elephant in the room and acknowledge that his driver is likely going to cause some issues for us this week, but would you believe me if I told you that in his last four majors, he is actually gaining +0.7 total strokes off tee in 16 rounds? Once the head cover goes on that wild wand, he wields off the tee, the true magic begins.
Smith can get streaky with his irons, which never showed up at the PGA Championship. What did show up was another round where his chipping gained him more than 3 strokes on the field around the greens. Min Woo Lee and Hideki Matsuyama join Smith as the only three golfers to appear on the list of golfers to have gained 3+ ARG twice this year. Cam Smith has only played EIGHT rounds of shotlink golf this year and has gained 3+ strokes around the green in 25% of those rounds. Did we mention that this week will reward those who can creatively caress their ball around the green half of the round? Even after losing -5.6 strokes putting in his final three rounds at the PGA Championship, Smith is still averaging +0.9 on the greens in his last 20 majors. If he drives it like he has in the last few majors and chips and putts like the wedge wizard he is, Smith is an absolute threat on a "sand belty" course that likely has him feeling the closest to home in a major not happening in Augusta, Georgia.
Hideki Matsuyama $1.52 +4600 @FanDuel (We will bet him T30 too)
I was researching strokes gained metrics for Sam Burns' putting at the Valspar, and there is only one person who has gained more strokes in one of the four core strokes gained categories at a specific event than Sam Burns has gained putting at Innisbrook (min 20 rounds). Hideki Matsuyama has gained an average of +1.8 strokes on approach in his 20 most recent US Opens. Hideki ranks as the 4th best approach player in the field in majors while also ranking 4th ARG in majors, which is not quite as good as the 2nd place he grades out this year ARG (behind Cam). It has been a hot minute since Matsuyama has found success at a major, having to time travel back to his 4th place finish at the 2022 US Open at The Country Club. Although the course may not be quite the same as your prototypical bomb and gouge US Open, something about this event has Hideki hitting his irons like Tony Stark while still holing out from just about everywhere around the green.
Tom Kim +9000 $0.78 x2 +9000 @ Bet365 (3 places each way)
In his short stint on this planet, the young star who only turns 22 later this month, courtesy of a solid major season in 2023, already has a T2 at the Open, a T8 at the US Open, and a T16 in his debut at Augusta. He stacked a T30 and T26 in the first two majors of the year, and after a 4th place finish at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this month, he seems to have found some form in the three starts since the PGA Championship. When he won the Shriners (for the second time) last October, he gained a dozen strokes putting and on approach, which will be needed this week for sure. He has also gained sizeably around the greens in three of his last five starts, losing strokes around the green at a very lush memorial and PGA Championship.
*Sahith Theegala $0.78 x2 +9000 @ FanDuel (now +6000)
Our only future has a really bright future ahead of him, and gaining +1.57 strokes around the greens at the Memorial is exciting heading into the week at Pinehurst. What is not exciting is the putter that has lost 7 strokes in the last 7 rounds, with two missed 3-footers on Sunday costing him and us a T5. He is a staple on our card and will continue to be so long as we get odds like this on the PGA Tour winner, who has made six of his last 7 major cuts, including a very important T9 at the Masters, to check that major top 10 boxes for us. The T12 at this year's PGA Championship is scared by -3.74 lost strokes on Sunday, entering the final round in the penultimate group in third place. He is getting battle-tested, and the next time he finds himself in contention, maybe his top 20 ball striking and putting can get him his first major.
Keegan Bradley $0.64 x2 +11000 @ Bet365 (3 places each way)
"Keegan Bradley is currently on a stretch of driving EXCELLENCE. His last eight rounds of golf off the tee have combined to gain him +12.35. Since 2017, these are the other golfers who have also gained 12+ OTT in back-to-back starts. If the driving continues to be exceptional, the T2 at Colonial will be another reason why we should have seen the win coming for Keegan. When one area of your game starts firing up like this, it surely spills into the other areas of your game, which should see his long irons giving him many stress-free pars all week long, while his three-putt avoidance and the tidy scrambling game should be enough to get across the line at Muirfield Village." - the Memorial
If we were going to bet him at Muirfield at +5000, why not go back to him at a venue where his total driving can really be appreciated this week? He did not have his stuff last week, but the 2nd place finish we saw from him at the Charles Schwab could be a sign of things to come from Keegan, who finished 4th here in 2014 dressed like a Britney Spears backup dancer in his red and white pants and shoes.
Placings ($65)
Matchups ($10)
Sepp Straka +100 OVER Sam Burns (DraftKings)
We made a similar bet last major with Cameron Young vs Burns. Young struggled after he made the cut, but Burns missed it. Sepp has been playing amazingly lately and his major track record is significantly better than Burns when looking at top-20 and better finishes. Even money on this bet is delightful.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Below is the weekly podcast I do with Spencer Aguiar (my amazing RotoBaller colleague) and a guest each week. This week, we had Keith Stewart, PGA, on the show, who has SO much golfing knowledge! Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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