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Week 14 began with an exciting New England Patriots victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
With that, the Steelers fell out of the playoff picture, and the Colts jumped into the No. 6 spot. The Colts will need to beat the Cincinnati Bengals this week, a game I don't think they will win (as I will explain), in order to hold onto their position.
All eyes are on the Cowboys vs. Eagles game, which will be exciting and could have implications for determining the NFC's No. 1 seed. The Bills must beat the Chiefs -- which I project they will -- to hold onto their dwindling playoff chances. The Falcons can take the lead over the Bucs (by head-to-head tiebreaker) in the hotly-contested NFC South with a win in what could be a high-scoring affair.
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Week 14 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 0-1 on Moneyline, 1-0 Against the Spread, 0-1 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 4-7 on Moneyline, 6-13 Against the Spread, 10-4 on Over/Under Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (CIN -1.5 / CIN -129)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 44
The Colts have faced one of the easiest schedules. They haven't beaten a team with a winning record since their three-point win over the Ravens in Week 3. They haven't played many teams with winning records either but they did lose a stretch of three straight games against the Jaguars, the Browns, and the Saints by an average margin of 9.7.
Jake Browning is very likely a better quarterback than Gardner Minshew. Both were evaluated similarly by NFL scouts. Browning's completion percentage (with just 94 dropbacks, to be sure) is higher than Minshew's ever was in his five seasons. His per-attempt average is higher than all but one of Minshew's seasons.
If the Bengals have a small edge at quarterback, they have a large edge at the other offensive skill positions. Jonathan Taylor has missed the first two practices of the week and is likely to miss this week, so the Colts lose the edge at running back.
After facing the Bengals this week, the Colts face the Steelers and then the Falcons. They get a week of reprieve against the Raiders, but then they end the season against the Texans. They've won four straight because they've faced a string of losing teams, including the Panthers and the Patriots, but they will fall out of the playoff hunt in the final stretch.
Pick: Bengals over Colts on ML
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -1.5)
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 48.5
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey after losing to the Broncos, 24-22. Since then, they have gained over 390 yards and scored over 30 points in their next two games, a blowout win over the Jets and an overtime loss to the Eagles.
Head coach Sean McDermott is still being criticized by analytics people, but the two games without Dorsey were their best and fourth-best in terms of total yards, both top-five in terms of points scored, and top-four in terms of expected offensive points.
The Bills have bad vibes now. A report by Tyler Dunne of Go Long lays the blame on McDermott for the Bills' postseason misfortunes. It accuses McDermott of being a bad leader who gives awkward speeches. In 2019, he reportedly cited the 9/11 hijackers as an example of a group of people who achieved a goal by working together. McDermott apologized, saying, "Not only was 9/11 a horrific event in our country's history, but a day that I lost a good family friend." I am glad we got that out of the way.
But betting against a team because of vibes isn't a good strategy. I don't think McDermott's strange speech from four years ago is going to impact this game.
Pick: Bills +1.5 over Chiefs
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -1.5)
Sunday, 8:20 pm | O/U: 41
The Bucs are averaging 19.4 points per game, but they have scored 20 or more points in four of their past five games. The Falcons are only scoring 18.8 points per game, but they had a stretch of four straight games scoring 23 or more before facing the Jets last week. They should have scored more than the 13 points they mustered.
The Falcons are using their first-round draft pick, Bijan Robinson, more than ever. In the past three weeks, he has had 56 carries, more than any other three-game stretch of this season, and he ran for over 90 yards and a touchdown in Weeks 11 and 12.
The Bucs' defense is worse than the Jets' defense, and the Falcons' defense is the worst in the league in PFF's power rankings. Both teams should get their playmakers involved. Chris Godwin reportedly wants more targets, but with Mike Evans having hit 1,000 yards for his 10th straight season and on pace for his best season since 2018, Tampa Bay is utilizing their receivers just fine.
Pick: Over 41
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