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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 13 matchups analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week started with some lopsided Thanksgiving and Black Friday contests before the game of the week on Sunday between the Eagles and Bills. The schedule goes back to normal with just one Thursday matchup, but we are missing six teams on a bye, including the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders, Minnesota Vikings, and New York Giants. It's the byepocalypse we've known was coming for a while now, but that doesn't soften the blow. It means looking to lower-ranked players across all positions right as the final playoff push is in tow. It's also a week full of rainy weather, so keep an eye on that as we get closer to Sunday.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice some players are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included in the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Fantasy Life, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you had players from that shootout to lead you to victory. Regardless of how Week 12 went, Week 13 is a chance for a fresh start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Spread: Chargers -5.5
Implied Total: Chargers (22.75) vs. Patriots (17.25)
Pace: Chargers (1st) vs. Patriots (4th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 32.3% Pass (6th), -12.7% Rush (23rd)
Patriots Off. DVOA: -12.2% Pass (28th), -3.8% Rush (14th)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 16.5% Pass (27th), -1.1% Rush (26th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 13.2% Pass (25th), -17.5% Rush (5th)
WEATHER: This game has a chance of showers with mild wind. It isn't expected to have much impact at this point.
Matchups We Love:
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen is the entire offense. He finished with a 36% target share, accounting for 48% of the receptions (14) and 49% of the receiving yards (106). The touchdowns will fluctuate, but the volume is near the top of anyone at the wide receiver position. He did miss practice Wednesday and Thursday, so we'll need more clarity Friday on his status.
UPDATE: Allen got in a limited practice on Friday and is listed as questionable. All signs are that he'll play, but we'll get confirmation over the weekend.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
It's a similar situation here. The Patriots are devoid of talent, especially at quarterback, prompting them to wisely lean on Stevenson. They fed him the ball 21 times on the ground and five times through the air. He went over 100 scrimmage yards and scored. Between the turnstile at QB and the continuous injuries to their receivers, there's no reason to think things will change. Stevenson gets another plus matchup as a top-20 back. Although Los Angeles has been better against the run in recent weeks, Ezekiel Elliott is also worth a look as a flex option with so few players to lean on.
UPDATE: Elliott is listed as questionable for Sunday. If he were to miss, it would give even more confidence to Stevenson pushing him into the top 15.
Matchups We Hate:
Patriots Passing Attack
Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe were both bad. The only player of interest in this group is Demario Douglas, who exited with a head injury. Unless he's active, it's a full pass here.
UPDATE: Douglas has been ruled out as expected and Zappe will get the nod. There's no one to start here. If you really want to try to find someone then it would be DeVante Parker.
Chargers TE
Gerald Everett returned to action to make two big plays while Donald Parham Jr. was a no-show. One was a gain of 31 yards and one was a three-yard touchdown catch. It makes sense given that the offense lacks competent receiving options outside of Allen. However, the matchup is tough against the Patriots, making him a touchdown-dependent streamer.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Ekeler lands here after another disappointing day, especially on the ground. His numbers are down significantly this year, which could be his age, health, the O-line, or the scheme, but regardless it's an issue. Fortunately, he can still rack up receptions to keep from completely destroying you, but he's no longer an elite back for fantasy.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Herbert and Co. committed four turnovers and produced just 10 points against a fierce Baltimore defense in Week 12. He aired it out 44 times in an attempt to create offense, but they were in over their head as they often are when they face quality opponents. Thankfully, New England is now a basement-dwelling team, something that's hard to imagine saying when the season began. He remains in the top 10 on the road in Foxborough.
Injuries:
Joshua Palmer (knee)
Keenan Allen (quad)
Demario Douglas (head)
Ezekiel Elliott (thigh)
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Lions -4.0
Implied Total: Lions (25.5) vs. Saints (21.5)
Pace: Lions (18th) vs. Saints (5th)
Lions Off. DVOA: 25.2% Pass (9th), 8.3% Rush (4th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 3.8% Pass (22nd), -1.6% Rush (10th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 6.8% Pass (13th), -15.8% Rush (7th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 3.1% Pass (11th), -3.5% Rush (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET)
After being considered a legitimate contender by many, the Lions have given up 55 points over the past two weeks with one miracle comeback win and one loss. They were forced to throw repeatedly after getting down 23-6 at halftime against the Packers on Thanksgiving. Fortunately for St. Brown, that resulted in several catches late for another high-volume performance. He's been the most consistent wide receiver in fantasy football. The trio of Jameson Williams, Kalif Raymond, and Josh Reynolds was led by Raymond this week, who finished with five grabs for 90 yards. He led the way with a 13% target share while Reynolds ran the most routes and scored a touchdown. Williams is always going to have the highest ceiling and the lowest floor, which makes him more boom-bust with the other two rotating reliable outputs.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
LaPorta trailed only St. Brown in targets with eight, plus he found the end zone. The combination of high usage, draft pedigree, his role as the No. 2 receiver, and the potency of the offense make him an elite tight end.
Lions RBs
Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs were effective on the ground, averaging 4.7 and 4.9 yards per carry, respectively. Montgomery handled two carries inside the 10-yard line compared to zero for Gibbs, but the offense converted just one of their five fourth-down attempts and committed far too many turnovers. Gibbs vastly out-targeted Montgomery eight to one, which is where the majority of his value lies. The offensive line should be rearing to go and find success against the Saints, who are without Cameron Jordan, keeping these two in the top 20.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
When the offense starts losing weapons in the passing game, we see an increased role for Kamara. He had five targets against the Falcons to go with 15 carries. We've seen that number increase dramatically at times, which is what you can expect with the Saints shorthanded at wide receiver.
Matchups We Hate:
Saints WRs
After placing Michael Thomas on Injured Reserve, New Orleans lost Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave on Sunday. Shaheed has yet to practice and seems unlikely to suit up. Meanwhile, Olave has back-to-back limited practices, giving him a shot to play. If he's active, then he's in your lineup and this group would move to the "matchups we love" section. Right now, the most probable outcome is A.T. Perry and Lynn Bowden Jr. leading the way. In that scenario, Perry gets the lean as a dart throw flex option.
UPDATE: Shaheed has been ruled out as expected while Olave practiced in full and is listed as questionable. He'll need to clear the concussion protocol still to play, but he has a real shot to do so.
Derek Carr (QB, NO)
Carr isn't good enough to lift the weapons around him at this point in his career, so he needs at least Olave healthy to go along with Kamara and the tight ends. If Olave suits up, then he's a decent streamer because the way to beat the Lions is through the air.
Other Matchups:
Saints TEs
Both Juwan Johnson and Taysom Hill were involved with so many receivers sidelined. Much of that was reactive too, so if they have time to game plan knowing they're missing their receivers, it's even more likely we see higher usage for these two. Johnson has the safer floor as a prototypical tight end while Hill has the ceiling due to his versatility.
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff now has six turnovers in two games. He threw three interceptions against the Bears and lost three fumbles against the Packers, neither of whom are known for having a strong defense. Part of it has been the protection from the O-line. Their strength is the running game and play action, so dropping back repeatedly is not a recipe for success. He's on the road this week against the Saints, which isn't a great spot. He's still a streamer because the offense is capable of putting up 30-plus points and should be hungry for vengeance.
Injuries:
Michael Thomas (knee)
Chris Olave (concussion)
Rashid Shaheed (thigh)
Kendre Miller (ankle)
Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets
Spread: Falcons -2.0
Implied Total: Falcons (17.75) vs. Jets (15.75)
Pace: Falcons (12th) vs. Jets (6th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -2.1% Pass (24th), -1.5% Rush (9th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -23.9% Pass (31st), -27.3% Rush (32nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 23.3% Pass (29th), -11.6% Rush (16th)
Jets Def. DVOA: -13.5% Pass (4th), -10.4% Rush (17th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have rain but no wind, which could have a small impact on the passing game.
Matchups We Love:
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Robinson's elite usage continued from before the bye week with 16 carries and six targets. He shouldered the load for the Falcons, leading them to a victory while snapping a three-week slide. He averaged about 6.5 yards per touch and scored twice, once on the ground and once through the air. He's set up nicely again this week against the New York Jets. With so many teams on a bye, it's also worth considering Tyler Allgeier as a flex option given he's averaging about 10 rushing attempts per week in his last four outings and does occasionally get goal-line work.
Matchups We Hate:
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Robinson took away most of the production, leaving Pitts just two targets. The Jets are a tougher matchup through the air, giving an already run-first team more incentive to pound the rock. He's a risky streamer.
Drake London (WR, ATL)
London was the only other play to come through with five catches for 91 yards. It's a low over/under between two struggling teams and he's likely to draw the attention of Sauce Gardner, but with so many players unavailable, he remains in the top 36.
Other Matchups:
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ)
While there are many reasons it's been a tough season for Wilson, one of them has been that the Jets weren't getting blown out because their defense would keep the game within reach. As a result, they didn't have to abandon the run and play hurry-up offense. That changed against Miami, where they trailed by multiple touchdowns late in the contests. As a result, they aired it out repeatedly, saving the day for Wilson, who scored their only offensive touchdown. Tim Boyle was by no means better than Zach Wilson, but the game script worked out in their favor for fantasy. It is another tough spot against A.J. Terrell and the Falcons cornerbacks.
Breece Hall (RB, NYJ)
Similar sentiment here. Hall got nothing going on the ground but hauled in seven catches for 24 yards on nine targets. He has 12 receptions in two weeks, which is a promising sign for his role as a receiver. Atlanta's defense is tough to run on, ranking second in EPA per rush allowed and 11th in rushing yards per attempted allowed. Hall will need to either break off a huge play or maintain his target share to produce as a top-24 back.
UPDATE: Hall practiced in full on Friday, but is technically listed as questionable. The odds are that he plays.
Injuries:
Breece Hall (hamstring)
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Spread: Steelers -6.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (17.25) vs. Steelers (23.75)
Pace: Cardinals (3rd) vs. Steelers (15th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: -7.9% Pass (27th), -4.0% Rush (15th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 7.8% Pass (20th), 1.0% Rush (8th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 25.1% Pass (31st), 3.9% Rush (30th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -7.4% Pass (7th), -12.3% Rush (14th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have rain and mild wind, which could have a small impact on the passing game.
Matchups We Love:
Steelers RBs
As anticipated, the team played inspired football on their way to generating over 400 yards of offense for the first time since Matt Canada became their offensive coordinator. Also as expected, it only led to 16 points. Sometimes things can change but not have a significant impact, which is the case here for this club. In terms of fantasy, more yards and more plays are always a good thing.
Najee Harris was gashing the Bengals' defense, frequently hitting chunk plays. He finished 15 for 99 and a score on the ground, which for the record was 100 before his final carry lost a yard. Jaylen Warren still had one more touch with 16, plus he was the only RB to be targeted. Positive game scripts are likely to favor Harris because he's viewed more as the grinder. It won't remove Warren from the equation, but it keeps Harris involved. They'll be fully committed to the run against the Cardinals, who were destroyed by the Rams last week, locking both into the top 20.
Matchups We Hate:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
After dominating the snap snare and workload for so long, Conner was very much part of a committee in Week 12. Emari Demercado returned to steal three carries while Michael Carter, who the team recently added, had four rushing attempts and four targets. Conner led the way with six carries and five targets, but that's a far cry from the amount of work he's been receiving. Furthermore, his 42% snap share was the lowest in any complete game he's played all year. He also lost out on another goal-line attempt to his quarterback. It'll be hard to bench him with fewer tailbacks available this week, but he's a definite fade.
Other Matchups:
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Freiermuth shocked the world with a career day in Cincinnati in his first full healthy contest back since his injury. He earned 11 targets, hauling in nine of them for 120 yards. His yardage was seventh among all tight ends for the most in a game this season. Obviously, that's not repeatable, but he spent most of 2022 operating as the primary target for Kenny Pickett, so it's worth chasing him as a top-12 option.
Steelers WRs
Pickett threw the second-most attempts and highest amount of yards all year. Yet, Diontae Johnson had four catches for 50 yards and George Pickens had three receptions for 58 yards. It's impossible to find a ceiling with these two, especially if Freiermuth is going to command a significant target share. Even amidst the worst week for byes of the the season, these two are well outside the top 24 with Johnson as the preferred choice.
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray and the offense looked broken against Los Angeles. They cleaned up the turnovers but failed to sustain drives, converting only six of 17 third downs. Murray threw and ran for a touchdown, which kept him from busting. However, the upside isn't there given the way this team is playing. Pittsburgh's pass rush ranks sixth, according to PFF, which could be a real issue for the Arizona offensive line, especially if they fall behind. Murray's in the lower part of the top 12.
Trey McBride (TE, ARI)
Much like Pickett, Murray aired it out 45 times, providing plenty of volume for the receiving group, particularly late in the game. McBride finished with the most receptions (seven) and the second-most receiving yards (60). Since Murray returned, they sit 24th in points per game, which caps the ceiling for McBride, who is still a top-12 tight end.
UPDATE: McBride is listed as questionable for Sunday's game. There's no backup to replace him, so it would just mean more targets for the receivers and tailbacks if he's out.
Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)
While Greg Dortch was the only player to catch a touchdown, it was Brown who led the team in targets and receiving yards. It was the first time we've seen him perform with Murray in 2023 after so many great outings in 2022. He's missing practice to open the week, which is worth monitoring. He jumps into the top 36 if active while Dortch remains a flex option so long as Michael Wilson, who's yet to return to practice, is out. Rondale Moore would also enter the equation if Brown misses.
UPDATE: Wilson has been ruled out as expected while Brown is listed as questionable. We'll see what happens over the weekend, but the lean at the moment would be that he plays.
Injuries:
Michael Wilson (shoulder)
Marquise Brown (heel)
Trey McBride (groin)
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Colts -1.0
Implied Total: Colts (21.75) vs. Titans (20.75)
Pace: Colts (2nd) vs. Titans (29th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 11.0% Pass (19th), 6.1% Rush (6th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 6.0% Pass (21st), -4.8% Rush (16th)
Colts Def. DVOA: -1.3% Pass (10th), -2.5% Rush (24th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 24.0% Pass (30th), -20.0% Rush (2nd)
WEATHER: This game has a chance of showers with mild wind. It isn't expected to have much impact at this point.
Matchups We Love:
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
While the stars were aligned for Henry, there was still a hint of doubt that he'd deliver. He calmed those fears with 18 carries for 76 yards and two touchdowns against the Panthers. It's reassuring to know he can still come through, even if it isn't the 30 for 200 type outings we once got. The Colts are another fantastic matchup, the game is at home, and the score should be close. There's slightly more risk this week because Indy is a much better team than Carolina, but Henry is capable of repeating what he did in Week 12.
Colts WRs
Speaking of outlooks looking similar to last week, this duo gets another great matchup against Tennessee. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs combined for a 63% target share along with 63% of the receptions and 60% of the receiving yards. While they both earned the same volume, Pittman was far more productive. Downs hauling in five passes for 43 yards is disappointing, but it was his first game back from injury and 13 targets are elite. Pittman moves into the top 15 with Downs in the top 30.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Zack Moss (RB, IND)
After a dominant performance, Jonathan Taylor suffered a thumb injury that required surgery and will cause him to miss multiple weeks. It means Moss will get the nod, which we saw earlier in the season when Taylor was on Injured Reserve. Moss was on fire during that stretch, averaging 25 touches for 107 yards and 0.66 touchdowns in three games. Additionally, he kept the reigns in Week 5 against the Titans, torching them for 195 yards and two scores. It's typically a difficult matchup for running backs, but in a divisional battle against a familiar foe, Moss warrants a spot in the top 15.
Gardner Minshew (QB, IND)
Minshew played well enough to complement their rushing attack, which he was a part of by rushing for a touchdown. His passing attempts are high enough to provide a safe baseline. He doesn't have a high ceiling, but he's a potential streamer this week given the matchup and his weapons.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, TEN)
If the Titans can run more than they pass, that's the ideal plan. It went nearly to perfection last week with 28 passes and 24 runs. Assuming they can maintain that approach, it's hard to trust anyone from the passing attack, including Hopkins, who had just five targets last week despite the positive matchup against the Colts. He's in the flex range as the only show in town aside from Chigoziem Okonkwo, who makes a big play from time to time.
UPDATE: Treylon Burks is still trying to return from a concussion that has sidelined him for multiple weeks. He practiced in full this week and is listed as questionable. He's not someone to start, but he could take away targets from Hopkins if he's active.
Injuries:
Jonathan Taylor (thumb)
Treylon Burks (concussion)
Miami Dolphins at Washington Commanders
Spread: Dolphins -9.5
Implied Total: Dolphins (29.5) vs. Commanders (20)
Pace: Dolphins (22nd) vs. Commanders (17th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 39.6% Pass (4th), 19.1% Rush (2nd)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -0.1% Pass (23rd), -6.2% Rush (18th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 4.9% Pass (12th), -3.9% Rush (21st)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 34.8% Pass (32nd), -13.5% Rush (12th)
WEATHER: This game has a chance of showers with mild wind. It isn't expected to have much impact at this point.
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tagovailoa almost cost the Dolphins with interceptions on back-to-back drives, the first of which was returned for a touchdown. Lucky for him, the defense bailed him out with a crazy Hail Mary pick-six by Jevon Holland to end the half. Once they established a significant lead, they turned the game over to their tailbacks, who combined for 33 carries, 166 yards, and two touchdowns on the ground. They keep pounding bad teams, which is exactly what Washington is.
Dolphins WRs
Despite only one passing touchdown, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were great. Each had eight-plus receptions for over 100 yards. We just saw the Dallas receivers have a hay day against the Commanders, so it's full speed ahead for this duo.
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
With De'Von Achane ruled out, Mostert capitalized on the opportunity against a bad run defense. He was slow going out of the gate, but finished with 20 rushing attempts for 94 yards and two scores, the latter of which sealed the victory. Thanks to such a positive game script, Jeff Wilson Jr. also had 14 touches for 73 yards. Achane has practiced in a limited fashion, making it difficult to gauge his status. We'll get an official update on Friday, but even if he's active, there's a lot of risk to starting him. Wilson would be a solid flex option if Achane misses while Mostert is locked in either way.
UPDATE: Achane is off the injury report and is good to go for Sunday. There's a ton of risk to throwing him out, but also plenty of reward. You'll need to assess your team and decide whether taking on that volatility is worthwhile.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Sam Howell (QB, WAS)
Howell and Co. were predictably in over their heads against Dallas on Thanksgiving. They did well to keep it close entering halftime before completely falling flat in the second half. Howell still racked up 300 passing yards on 44 attempts, which is plenty of volume to support the receiving weapons. He didn't find the end zone, so his fantasy output was lower, but he's still a streamer against the Dolphins, whose defense is much improved with Jalen Ramsey back but not at the level of the Cowboys.
Commanders WRs
The leading wideout was Curtis Samuel, who hauled in nine passes for 100 yards. Terry McLaurin had just one less target but only caught four passes for 52 yards while Jahan Dotson went five for 52. The pattern of utilizing far too many players continued with nine different players earning a target. It makes only one or two of them relevant each week, and often not the same individual(s). McLaurin is likely to draw the attention of Ramsey, creating another opportunity for Samuel in the slot. They're both top-36 receivers with Dotson as a flex option.
Commanders RBs
Antonio Gibson returned from injury, which reduced the monstrous role that Brian Robinson Jr. was seeing. It's tough to run on Dallas, so their success needed to come through the air. They combined for seven targets, which is decent usage but wasn't good enough for either to produce. In what figures to be another negative game script, Robinson drops outside the top 20 with Gibson as a solid flex option, especially in full-PPR formats.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS)
After some strong performances to begin the year, Thomas has been outside the top 12 for four straight weeks. Despite the high volume in the offense, the ball is being spread around, typically limiting him to five or fewer targets. The matchup is decent, so he remains a streamer, but his ceiling feels capped.
Injuries:
Salvon Ahmed (foot)
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -3.0
Implied Total: Broncos (22.25) vs. Texans (25.25)
Pace: Broncos (25th) vs. Texans (7th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 22.4% Pass (12th), -1.8% Rush (12th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 40.3% Pass (3rd), -19.9% Rush (27th)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 22.1% Pass (28th), 9.6% Rush (31st)
Texans Def. DVOA: 15.58% Pass (26th), -14.9% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)
Stroud balled out against the Jaguars, falling just short of a victory. If not for a missed game-tying field goal, there would have been overtime and a chance for a comeback win. Nevertheless, he totaled over 300 yards and three scores to add to his resume of top-10 performances. The Broncos are on a hot streak, thanks in large part to their defense, which is consistently creating turnovers. However, with three of the top signal-callers absent this week, there's no way you're benching him.
Texans WRs
This duo alternated halves. Tank Dell led the way in the first half while Nico Collins took over in the second. Dell also had a spectacular 60-plus yard throw and catch called back on an illegal shift penalty. It's hard to know how Denver will deploy Patrick Surtain II against these two, but like Stroud, they're too good to push outside the top 24. Dell has been sidelined Wednesday and Thursday with a calf injury while Noah Brown is back at practice. Brown is an intriguing flex option if he plays, and would move into the top 36 if Dell is out.
UPDATE: Dell and Brown are listed as questionable while tight end Dalton Schultz has been ruled out. Brown had a DNP on Friday, which could signal a setback while Dell is expected to play. We'll get more information over the weekend, but it makes Collins and possibly Robert Woods more intriguing.
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
One week after it looked like this backfield was becoming a three-headed monster, Williams took back his workhorse role. He accounted for 18 of the 27 (67%) RB carries and six targets. The yardage output wasn't superb but that was against Cleveland, arguably the league's best defense. Facing Houston, he'll be a solid top-24 back if the workload maintains.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Devin Singletary (RB, HOU)
Dameon Pierce returned from injury, but Singletary was still the starter. Singletary played 81% of the snaps, saw 50% of the carries, and earned a 21% target share, which was where he made his mark. They were playing catchup at the end, resulting in more check-downs, but it's a good sign that those will be a part of his role. Denver's rush defense is still giving up plenty of yards and touchdowns, ranking dead-last in rushing yards per attempt allowed in the last three weeks. Singletary slots in as a top-24 back with Pierce as a possible flex option.
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)
Sutton almost did it again, barely missing a touchdown grab in the corner of the end zone. Unfortunately, as we suggested, his production when he doesn't score is minimal. He had three catches for 61 yards. The offense prefers to pound the rock, making Sutton a boom-bust top 36 wideout.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Credit to the coaching staff for finding a way to exploit the Browns' defense with their rushing scheme. Wilson ran the ball a season-high 11 times for 34 yards and a score. There was a time when you could count on Wilson for at least 25 rushing yards per game. Obviously, he's not that same player athletically but he still has the vision on designed runs and scrambles. The ceiling is still lower, but he's someone that you could rely on for his floor.
Injuries:
Noah Brown (knee)
Tank Dell (calf)
Dalton Schultz (hamstring)
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -5.0
Implied Total: Panthers (16) vs. Buccaneers (21)
Pace: Panthers (10th) vs. Buccaneers (13th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -21.9% Pass (30th), -20.0% Rush (28th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 12.3% Pass (18th), -19.3% Rush (26th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (22nd), 10.2% Rush (32nd)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 10.5% Pass (20th), -13.1% Rush (13th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to have sustained wind with a chance of showers, which could have a minor impact.
Matchups We Love:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
White crushed the Colts on the ground, finishing sixth on the week in rushing yards over expected per attempt at 1.58. He was efficient and productive in a plus matchup. The good news is the Panthers are as bad (if not worse) at stopping the run and they're a much worse team overall. White is a must-start this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Panthers Passing Attack
You can now add the firing of his head coach to Bryce Young's tumultuous rookie season. He's had multiple play callers, subpar weapons, and a struggling offensive line. It's not entirely his fault, but there's no denying the result is bad. Speaking of which, Adam Thielen dropped to fourth on the team in targets with three. He's tough to rely on because they seem to be shifting their focus to rookie Jonathan Mingo. Ultimately, neither is an exciting option, but Mingo is the flex play if you want to take a shot against a beatable Tampa Bay secondary.
Other Matchups:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
Hubbard and Miles Sanders split the touches 19-15 in favor of Hubbard, but he was the one to score their only touchdown and he was targeted five times. We've seen the Panthers target their running back in comeback mode on multiple occasions this year, and it wouldn't be surprising for that to occur again this week. It's also worth noting that the Buccaneers, who are known for their stout run defense, played without Lavonte David and Jamel Dean, neither of whom are on track to play this week. It opens up some more room for Hubbard, who fits in as an interesting flex option.
Mike Evans (WR, TB)
Evans almost had himself a hat trick, falling just short of three touchdowns. He's currently 11th in receiving yards (850) and second in receiving touchdowns (nine), putting together a throwback campaign with Baker Mayfield at the helm. Chris Godwin on the other hand has been unreliable despite receiving sufficient volume. He's hauling in just 65% of his targets with one trip to pay dirt in 2023. Godwin has almost no upside while Evans is of course locked in.
UPDATE: Godwin missed practice on Friday and is listed as questionable, removing him from your lineup even if he's active.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB)
Mayfield attempted a QB sneak, which not only failed but he injured his ankle on the play. He was evaluated on the sideline briefly but gutted it out. He committed two turnovers but continues to feed Evans, enabling him to hit decent yard totals and find the end zone multiple times each week. He's another possible streamer although teams typically find it easier to attack Carolina on the ground.
Injuries:
Chris Godwin (neck)
Jonathan Mingo (Achilles)
Hayden Hurst (concussion)
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -4.0
Implied Total: Browns (18) vs. Rams (22)
Pace: Browns (11th) vs. Rams (21st)
Browns Off. DVOA: -14.4% Pass (29th), -7.9% Rush (20th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (16th), -1.7% Rush (11th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -27.1% Pass (2nd), -19.3% Rush (3rd)
Rams Def. DVOA: 7.9% Pass (14th), -3.3% Rush (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
The Browns struggled to move the ball, especially after Dorian Thompson-Robinson exited with a concussion. P.J. Walker took over and then Amari Cooper left late. It was a disaster. Thankfully, Ford still saw 13 touches along with all seven running back targets. Kareem Hunt remains involved, but Ford is the lead back and the Rams are a good matchup for a team that prefers to tote the rock. He's in the top 24 with Hunt as a possible flex option.
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Williams massacred the Cardinals for 204 yards and two touchdowns, both of which came through the air. He's been a monster against Arizona, but that's not to take anything away from the hot start he had early in the year when facing other teams. The Browns are a tough matchup, but they're banged up and their offense can't generate many points, so he's in the top 12. Royce Freeman capitalized on his opportunity during cleanup duty, but the matchup is a lot tougher, so he's a risky flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
Amari Cooper (WR, CLE)
By all accounts, Cleveland is in line to start Joe Flacco at quarterback. It's not much of an upgrade from an NFL perspective, but for fantasy purposes, we know he likes to sling it. Cooper's health is also a factor. He returned to practice but he's clearly banged up right now. Assuming it's Flacco and Cooper is active, he's in the top 36 with a riskier outlook.
UPDATE: Thompson-Robinson has been ruled out, and Flacco will get the nod on Sunday. It makes Cooper more trustworthy as the volume should be there, plus he's off the injury report.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
After spending most of the season underwhelming, Higbee caught all five of his targets for 29 yards and two touchdowns. If not for the multiple scores, his lackluster run would have persisted, which is what you can expect this week. They may elect to involve him more, but chasing what could be a one-hit wonder is risky.
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Much like Higbee, Stafford saw weeks of touchdown regression hit all in one game. He threw four total, two to Higbee and two to Williams. It's not going to happen that way against the Browns, even if they are missing some key pieces. At home as the favorites, there's reason to look his way as a streamer but you should expect the touchdowns to shift back to the ground.
Other Matchups:
Rams WRs
Neither Puka Nacua nor Cooper Kupp had much chance to succeed with Williams and Higbee taking away all the production. Nacua had eight targets and Kupp, who still doesn't seem healthy, had just five. Things should bounce back to some degree as the other two are unlikely to absorb so much of the output this week. It's a matter of how far the pendulum swings. Denzel Ward was injured during the Browns loss and has yet to practice. His absence would benefit these two, who are harder to trust after last week. Both are in the top 24 because of bye weeks, and Nacua remains the preferred wideout with Kupp carrying more risk.
UPDATE: Ward has been ruled out, which is good news for these two. Myles Garrett is active though, which could take away time for Stafford.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Regardless of who is throwing the ball, Njoku will be there to soak up targets. He had nine more last week, and figures to keep rolling with Cooper banged up. He's a low-ceiling, high-floor type of tight end.
Injuries:
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion)
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: 49ers -3.0
Implied Total: 49ers (25.5) vs. Eagles (22.5)
Pace: 49ers (32nd) vs. Eagles (31st)
49ers Off. DVOA: 66.6% Pass (1st), 13.2% Rush (3rd)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 26.8% Pass (8th), 8.2% Rush (5th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -12.2% Pass (5th), -4.7% Rush (20th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 10.7% Pass (21st), -18.7% Rush (4th)
WEATHER: This game has a higher chance of showers that could clear up before the game starts. It could have an impact depending on when it comes.
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Most teams that make it to the Super Bowl and lose heartbreakingly the way the Eagles did would regress the following season. Not this team, and especially not Hurts. An injury kept him from taking home the MVP award in 2022 and that's the only thing that could get in his way this year because he's been unstoppable.
In what will go down as a memorable battle between the Eagles and Bills, he put the team on his back late in the game, leading them to three straight touchdown drives and then the game-tying field goal. After Josh Allen and Gabe Davis failed to connect in the end zone, he marched Philly down the field one more time and ran the ball in for his second score on the ground and fifth overall. This week we get a rematch of the NFC championship, which has the potential for another epic clash. The 49ers have one of the NFL's best defenses, but there's no doubt Hurts will get his.
Eagles WRs
Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith caught a touchdown from Hurts, but it was Smith who led the way again. The correlation between Dallas Goedert being out and Smith producing spike weeks is evident. They're hopeful to get Goedert back soon, but this week seems like a long shot, making these two must-start receivers.
UPDATE: Goedert is listed as doubtful, which almost certainly means he'll be out again.
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
McCaffrey almost single-handedly beat the Seahawks, who were far from healthy and had no chance on a short week to compete. We already know he's matchup-proof so the stout run defense doesn't matter here. It just means they'll attack the Eagles through the air if needed.
49ers WRs
Deebo Samuel was dominant as well, scoring as a runner and totaling seven receptions for 79 yards as a receiver. It wasn't as great for Brandon Aiyuk, but he still found pay dirt and made a couple of big plays. Both are locked in against the Philly secondary, which has been very susceptible to wide receivers, giving up the most fantasy points to the position over the past six weeks.
Matchups We Hate:
George Kittle (TE, SF)
It's always hard to gauge the spike weeks for Kittle, but they rarely come when all four of their weapons are healthy. It's also not a great matchup, so the odds are lower but certainly not zero.
Other Matchups:
D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)
Despite accounting for 14 of the 18 (78%) RB carries, it wasn't quite what you'd hope for when the team hits 37 points on offense. He trailed Kenneth Gainwell in targets, but Hurts decided to tuck the ball and run more often than not, limiting the potential check-downs. The matchup isn't quite as bad as it used to be. The 49ers rank 10th in rushing yards per attempt allowed, 20th in run defense DVOA, and 24th in EPA per rush allowed. Swift could be a big factor in this one, keeping him in the top 24.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Last week was an easy win that required very little of Purdy. He did enough to get the win, but he'll be asked to air it a lot more with an aggressive approach for them to keep pace and score. He's a top-10 QB given his supporting cast is among the best in the NFL.
Injuries:
Dallas Goedert (forearm)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Chiefs -6.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (24.25) vs. Packers (18.25)
Pace: Chiefs (23rd) vs. Packers (14th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 35.6% Pass (5th), -4.9% Rush (17th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 24.6% Pass (10th), -16.0% Rush (25th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -15.2% Pass (3rd), -0.7% Rush (27th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 8.8% Pass (17th), -5.9% Rush (19th)
WEATHER: This game is expected to feature a cold temperature with the possibility of rain or snow, but unless the rain or snow comes, it shouldn't have a significant impact.
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The Chiefs got off to a slow start down 14-0 before storming back to blow out the Raiders. It forced Mahomes to throw for a little longer, which enabled him to get to 300 total yards and two scores. The hope here is that the Packers come out firing like they did against the Lions, pushing the Chiefs to stay more balanced because the matchup is very favorable for the run game.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce made sure to right the ship in Week 12 with six grabs for 91 yards. He's less impacted by the passing volume because he's the No. 1 target, but it still helps his outlook if the game is competitive.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
The matchup was great, leading to success for Pacheco as a rusher with two trips to the end zone. What was great to see was the usage in the passing game, which correlated with Jerick McKinnon being inactive. His five receptions were the second-most of the year and highest since Week 6. He's a great tailback to play regardless of whether McKinnon is active because of the matchup against Green Bay, but he moves into the top 12 if McKinnon is out again.
UPDATE: McKinnon has been ruled out, which thrusts Pacheco into the top 12.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Much like Pacheco, Rice benefited from the absence of his teammates, namely Mecole Hardman Jr., who has been placed on Injured Reserve, and Kadarius Toney, who will be back in action in Week 13. He made a nice move to take a short pass 39 yards to the house, plus he earned 10 targets. There's always going to be volatility given the way they rotate their wideouts, but his route participation (68%) and target share (32%) hit season highs, and head coach Andy Reid commented on the improving connection between him and Mahomes. It's worth taking another chance on him as a top-36 receiver, especially if the Packers, who are vulnerable to slot wide receivers, keep it close.
Jordan Love (QB, GB)
Love has been playing really well over the past three weeks, completing 63% of his passes for an average of 293 yards and 2.3 touchdowns at 7.9 yards per attempt. He's also adding about 17 rushing yards per game on the ground. After back-to-back outings with 40 passing attempts, it dropped to 32 last week, but much of that was game script. He's at home on a two-game winning streak, so hosting the Chiefs feels a lot less scary than it would have earlier in the year. He's a high-end streamer in what could be a shootout.
Packers WRs
The players supporting Love and Green Bay's winning streak have been their trio receiving corps, consisting of Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. Reed has emerged as the most consistent receiver while Watson maintains the ability to make big plays and produce spike weeks. Those two benefited from Luke Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks missing Week 12, concentrating the volume and resulting in a combined 47% target share. Musgrave is going to be out for a while, but Wicks is on track to return this week. L'Jarius Snead is likely to take on Watson in coverage, opening the door for Reed, who deserves consideration as a top-24 wideout. Although, he is dealing with a chest injury and has yet to practice. Watson stays in the top 36 with a higher ceiling and Doubs remains a flex option, but both would move up if Reed misses.
UPDATE: Reed has been listed as questionable for Sunday's game. It seems he'll play, but we'll need more clarity over the weekend to know.
A.J. Dillon (RB, GB)
Dillon's performance on the field has been bad this season. He ranks 39th among qualified backs in rushing yards over expected per attempt at -0.39, 37th in elusive rating at 36.6, and 27th in yards after contact per attempt at 1.6. He turned his 17 touches into 81 yards on Thanksgiving against the Lions, most of it coming as a receiver. He's still useable for fantasy so long as Aaron Jones remains out, which should be the case again this week. He's a flex option with secure volume and opportunity.
UPDATE: Jones has been ruled out as expected, making Dillon a flex option.
Injuries:
Aaron Jones (knee)
Luke Musgrave (kidney)
Jayden Reed (chest)
Mecole Hardman Jr. (thumb)
Jerick McKinnon (groin)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -8.5
Implied Total: Bengals (15) vs. Jaguars (23.5)
Pace: Bengals (27th) vs. Jaguars (19th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 13.2% Pass (17th), -7.2% Rush (19th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 23.7% Pass (11th), -13.3% Rush (24th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 9.3% Pass (19th), 3.8% Rush (29th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: -4.9% Pass (8th), -22.8% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Lawrence led his team to an important divisional win to hold off the surging Texans. It was an impressive victory and another multi-touchdown game for Lawrence, who continues to score on the ground. The shootout nature of last week's contest is unlikely to repeat as heavy favorites at home against the Bengals, but he's still a top-12 signal-caller.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
After riding hot for several weeks and finding the end zone weekly, Etienne Jr. has three games without a touchdown. It's been primarily a product of Lawrence vulturing them away. Etienne now sits 26th in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line and 28th in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line. He's also seen a downtick in his snaps and rushing share as D'Ernest Johnson has become more involved. He still had 24 touches for 76 yards against the Texans, so in a get-right matchup against the reeling Bengals, he's locked in. Johnson is also a potential flex option with eight touches in each of his past two outings.
UPDATE: Etienne is expected to suit up. There is a chance Johnson takes more work away but he's still a top-15 back.
Jaguars WRs
This group remains a tough one to decipher. After being nonexistent in the first half, Calvin Ridley was everywhere, catching five passes for 89 yards and a score with a two-point conversation. It didn't prohibit Christian Kirk from producing with four receptions for 89 yards. It seems clear now that they intend to move forward with these two as their starters, using Zay Jones primarily in three wide receiver sets. There's nothing about Cincinnati's defense that scares you right now, so both jump into the top 24 given all the byes, albeit with more risk for Ridley.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Jake Browning attempted 26 passes to go with the team's 11 carries. That's brutal for the offense and correspondingly for fantasy. Mixon accounted for 100% of the RB rushing attempts and targets, but with just 10 touches, including two receptions, there's no way you can trust him in another tough matchup. You may be forced to trot him out there given your options, but he's someone to pivot off of if you can.
Other Matchups:
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Chase is in a similar situation, except he can make incredible plays like the tipped-ball catch last week. His concentration and vision to locate the ball led to a 31-yard reception, but aside from that, he had three grabs for 50 yards. It's unreasonable to advise benching Chase with six teams on a bye week, but he's in the Garrett Wilson club now with a struggling QB, not as bad of one, on a poor offense. Tee Higgins could return this week, but he's not worth considering until we see him play a full game.
UPDATE: Higgins is expected to play but remains a risk option.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Engram is living in a good to great range. He went five for 49 as the TE12 last week, which is his highest finish since Week 4. He's had a finish of TE13 or TE14 three times in between, providing you with a floor but no ceiling. At the tight end position, touchdowns are critical, so having none is killing his value in 2023. The volume was there again with eight targets, so it's hard to chase the touchdown-or-bust type streamers instead, but it's worth considering if you need that higher output and are willing to take on the risk.
Injuries:
Tee Higgins (hamstring/ankle)
Travis Etienne Jr. (rib)
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